The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL DFS product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for this week’s slate.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Josh Allen at New York Jets – $7,100 on DraftKings, $8,800 on FanDuel
After battling it out in an instant classic last Sunday night, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are closely matched up again at the top of the projections for Week 2. Just like last week, though, Allen comes out ahead by a very narrow margin, with the highest ceiling and floor projection in the evenly blended three-way aggregate of the projections from Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, and THE BLITZ, which we’ll lean on heavily in his post. Jackson does have the highest median projection in that aggregate and is a strong play as well, but if you can afford Allen, he brings the highest ceiling.
In leading his team to a big comeback win over Jackson’s Ravens, Allen totaled 41.76 DraftKings and FanDuel points, racking up 394 passing yards and two passing touchdowns while completing 33-of-46 (72%) of his pass attempts, and he added on 51 rushing yards and two rushing scores.
He was the highest scorer of Week 1 by a wide margin, and he gets a good matchup against the Jets in Week 2, even though he’ll have to go on the road.
In Week 1, the Jets gave up four passing touchdowns and 244 passing yards to their former quarterback, Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers isn’t nearly the rushing threat that Allen is, but he was able to carve up the Jets’ defense and lead his team to 34 points. Last year, Allen threw for two touchdowns and ran for a touchdown in each of his two wins over the Jets, racking up 397 passing yards and 35 rushing yards in the two games combined.
He’s an expensive play to pay up and build around, but he has the highest upside of the QBs on the main slate since he already looks locked in and ready to rush and pass his way to plenty of fantasy points.
Top Value: Mac Jones at New Orleans Saints – $4,000 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel
Well, that didn’t take long. After injuries derailed the 49ers’ season last year, the injury bug is back to haunt the team again this year. George Kittle (hamstring) landed on IR after the team’s Week 1 win, and Brock Purdy (toe) is a long shot to play this week and could miss multiple weeks. Mac Jones will get his first chance to play for the 49ers against the Saints in New Orleans this week, and he has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus and Pts/Sal of all quarterbacks on DraftKings and the second-highest on FanDuel, since he is so affordable on both sites.
Jones would seem to be a good fit for coach Kyle Shanahan’s system, and he will likely have Jauan Jennings (shoulder), even though he won’t have Kittle. He’ll also have second-year receiver Ricky Pearsall, who had 100+ receiving yards in Week 1.
Last year, Jones made seven starts for the Jaguars and threw eight touchdowns and eight interceptions while averaging 209 passing yards per game. This preseason, he completed 17-of-23 passes for 209 yards and two interceptions before missing the final preseason game with a knee sprain.
Jones gets a good matchup against the Saints, who lost to the Cardinals in Week 1, and he’ll have enough playmaking options to be a viable punt play this week. While I’m not high on Jones long-term, he won’t have to do much at all to be a good play at this low salary.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Christian McCaffrey at New Orleans Saints – $7,500 on DraftKings, $8,900 on FanDuel
Without Kittle and Purdy, the 49ers will have to rely heavily on McCaffrey, who has the highest median, floor, and ceiling projections at running back in the aggregate projections on DraftKings, where he also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus and a 96% Bargain Rating. His salary on FanDuel is much higher, but he still has the highest median, floor, and ceiling projections at running back in the aggregate.
McCaffrey was questionable coming into his Week 1 matchup with the Seahawks after dealing with a calf injury that gave the fantasy football world flashbacks to his injury-plagued 2024 season. He played through the injury and was the No. 3 running back of the week even though he didn’t get into the end zone. He took his 22 carries for 69 yards and added nine receptions for 73 yards on 10 targets.
The Saints gave up over 100 rushing yards on 20 carries to the Cardinals in Week 1, and James Conner added a receiving touchdown as well. The 49ers are still favored, and if they play from ahead, the game script could feature all CMC all the time.
With fewer options in the offense, McCaffrey should get all the work he can handle. He’s a great pay-up play to build around if he’s healthy and ready to roll in the Big Easy.
Top Value: Chase Brown vs. Jacksonville Jaguars – $6,800 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel
Brown has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the board for both FanDuel and DraftKings in the aggregate projections coming into Week 2. He doesn’t have to worry about a timeshare in Cincinnati, setting him up for a big workload against the Jags.
In Week 1, Brown took 21 carries for 43 yards and a touchdown against the Browns and added two catches on three targets for eight more yards. He was the only Bengals running back to get a carry and converted a one-yard touchdown at the goal line, showing he’s the preferred option in short-yardage situations as well.
Last year as a second-year back, Brown took over the starting role midseason from Zack Moss and finished with 990 rushing yards, 360 receiving yards, and 11 touchdowns in 16 games. Dating back to last year, he has found the end zone eight times in his last 10 games.
Brown, Joe Burrow, and the Bengals’ offense were hoping to come flying out of the gate after last year’s slow start, but they barely held on for a 17-16 win in Cleveland against the Browns’ stout defense. They’ll look to get things going more this week against the Jaguars, who allowed Chuba Hubbard to rack up 89 total yards and a touchdown in Week 1.
The Bengals are also expected to play from ahead this week, setting up a good game script for Brown to return excellent value, even though he isn’t exactly a bargain or a cheap play. If you do have to pay down at the position, our projections point to Tony Pollard and Javonte Williams as good plays under $6,000 on DraftKings and Zach Charbonnet as a potential bargain even further down the salary list.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Puka Nacua at Tennessee Titans – $7,600 on DraftKings, $8,400 on FanDuel
Nacua and the Rams head to Tennessee this week, and the third-year receiver from BYU should be in a great spot to produce a big game. He has the highest median projection in the aggregate projections for both DraftKings and FanDuel, and he also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all receivers on DraftKings, despite his elevated salary.
Nacua had 11 targets in Week 1 against the Texans and hauled in 10 catches for 130 yards in the Rams’ close victory. In the last two seasons, he averaged 10.2 targets per game, and he looks like he’ll be a favorite option for Matthew Stafford again this year. Davante Adams playing on the other side should open things up as the season goes on, but early in the year, Nacua should continue to feast.
The Titans actually limited the passing game of the Broncos fairly efficiently in Week 1, but Courtland Sutton did have six catches for 61 yards and a touchdown.
Like with McCaffrey, Nacua’s expected workload gives him such a high ceiling and floor that he’s a great option to pay up for this week.
Top Value: Hollywood Brown vs. Philadelphia Eagles – $5,200 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel
Especially on DraftKings, Brown seems extremely underpriced for Week 2’s Super Bowl rematch. He has an 85% Bargain Rating on DraftKings and the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position in the aggregate and the highest of any receiver with a salary under $6,000. On FanDuel, he still has a positive Plus/Minus, but his salary has risen due to his bigger role.
The Chiefs’ plan was for second-year receiver Xavier Worthy (shoulder) to carry a lot of the workload while Rashee Rice (suspension) missed the first six games of the season, but Worthy was hurt early in the team’s Week 1 loss to the Chargers when he collided with Travis Kelce. After Worthy’s departure, Brown led the Chiefs in receptions, receiving yards, and targets in his best game since joining the team.
Brown finished with 10 catches for 99 yards on his 16 targets, finishing with 19.9 DraftKings points, just one yard short of the 100-yard bonus points. Brown’s target load was huge compared to last season, when he averaged 5.6 targets in his five games in the regular season and postseason. He was coming back from his own shoulder injury at that point and never really established himself with a role in the team’s attack.
This year, Brown should have enough trouble getting work since he will likely be the team’s clear No. 1 receiver again if Worthy is out as expected. In the Super Bowl last year, Brown had only two catches for 15 yards, but he’ll likely be much more involved in this rematch, so getting him at just over $5,000 makes him a great value to watch this week.
Since he’s such an obvious play, you may have to look elsewhere for leverage. Keon Coleman, Wan’Dale Robinson, and Tetairoa McMillan are some less popular plays that still have good Projected Plus/Minus this week.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Trey McBride vs. Carolina Panthers – $6,000 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel
McBride is an expensive play this week at home against the Panthers, but the projections indicate he’ll be worth it. He has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections in the aggregate on both DraftKings and FanDuel and also brings the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position.
McBride picked up where he left off last year by hauling in six catches for 61 yards on his nine targets and not getting into the end zone. He is a PPR beast and very reliable in his huge weekly workload as Kyler Murray sends plenty of passes his way.
McBride gets a great matchup against the Panthers in Week 2, who gave up a tight end touchdown in Week 1 to the Jaguars and were one of the best matchups for tight ends last year as well. McBride doesn’t have to get into the end zone to be a strong fantasy option, and he makes a strong play every week with so heavy a workload.
Top Value: Harold Fannin Jr. at Baltimore Ravens – $3,100 on DraftKings, $5,000 on FanDuel
FanDuel adjusted Fannin’s salary up to $5,000 for Week 2, but we have one more week with him as a bargain play on DraftKings. He has a 91% Bargain Rating and the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on that site after his big NFL debut last week.
Against the Bengals, Fannin played 72% of the team’s offensive snaps, compared to 84% for starting tight end David Njoku. However, Fannin got a team-high nine targets from veteran QB Joe Flacco and hauled in seven of those passes for a total of 63 receiving yards. The Browns look like they’ll rely heavily on two-tight-end sets to give Flacco both big receivers to work with over the middle.
In Week 2, Fannin will face the Ravens, who gave up seven catches on seven targets for 97 yards and a touchdown to the Bills’ tight ends in their Week 1 loss. It’s actually a good matchup for Fannin if the Browns have to throw a lot to keep up with Lamar Jackson and company, so I’m very high on the rookie again this week.
On FanDuel, where Fannin is pricier, Hunter Henry and Juwan Johnson are good values to consider after their strong performances in Week 1. You can also consider Jake Tonges in San Francisco, who could help fill in for Kittle for the next few weeks.
Pictured: Trey McBride
Photo Credit: Imagn
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