The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Jacob deGrom ($9,300) Texas Rangers (-180) vs. Los Angeles Angels
Monday’s slate features a bunch of aces, including arguably the best pitcher in baseball in Tarik Skubal. However, Skubal has shown a few cracks in his armor of late, and he’ll have to navigate a tough matchup out west vs. the Athletics. He’s also pricey at $10,700, which opens the door for deGrom to steal the top spot.
deGrom is significantly cheaper at just $9,300, but he’s reminded everyone this season just how good he is when healthy. While his numbers aren’t quite as dominant as they were during his prime, his 2.76 ERA and 27.3% strikeout rate are still phenomenal. He had hit a bit of a rough patch after the All-Star break, but he bounced back with five scoreless innings vs. the Blue Jays in his last outing. Overall, he’s still one of the clear best pitchers in fantasy.
While Skubal has to navigate a subpar matchup, deGrom gets an extremely juicy one vs. the Angels. Their lineup has a couple of dangerous sluggers, but they’re also strikeout-prone: no team has a higher strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers. As a result, deGrom leads the slate with a 7.94 K Prediction.
deGrom also has some of the best Vegas data of the day. His 3.3 opponent implied run total is the top mark among all pitchers, and he’s the fourth-largest favorite at -180. Historically, pitchers with comparable Vegas data and K Predictions have averaged 22.27 DraftKings points per start, good for an average Plus/Minus of +4.12 (per the Trends tool).
Ultimately, this is a phenomenal opportunity to buy low on deGrom. His price tag has come down by more than $1,000 from its peak, and he ranks second in projected Plus/Minus in THE BAT X.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Cam Schlittler ($7,700) New York Yankees (-239) vs. Tampa Bay Rays
The Yankees have had their fair share of issues recently, but they managed to pick up a much-needed win over the Red Sox on Sunday. They’re still comfortably in one of the Wild Card spots in the American League, so they still have plenty of reasons to be optimistic.
Schlittler’s emergence is one of them. He’s one of the team’s top prospects, and he’s more than held his own at the major league level. He took a perfect game into the seventh inning in his last start, and he ultimately finished with 6.2 scoreless innings with eight punchouts. It resulted in a whopping 29.2 DraftKings points, and he posted a positive Plus/Minus for the third time in his last four outings.
Schlitter has solid strikeout metrics and a respectable 3.90 xERA, so he’s been better than his $7,700 price tag suggests. He draws an excellent matchup Monday vs. the Nationals, resulting in the biggest moneyline odds on the slate. Washington is merely 20th in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers, so Schlittler is in a great spot to pick up a win if his offense gives him some support.
Ultimately, Schlittler stands out as the clear value SP2 to pair with deGrom for cash games. Neither player is really breaking the bank, so you can pretty comfortably fit both players alongside your preferred stack.
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MLB DFS GPP Picks
Tarik Skubal ($10,700) Detroit Tigers (-199) at Athletics
Even if it may be a subpar spot for Skubal… he’s still Tarik Skubal. He bounced back with a quality performance in his last outing, pitching seven scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts while allowing just three hits. The Athletics are fifth in wRC+ when facing a southpaw at home, but there aren’t many southpaws that throw the ball like Skubal. His price tag has also decreased by -$1,700 over the past month, while he should command lower ownership than deGrom for tournaments.
Max Scherzer ($8,300) Toronto Blue Jays (-144) vs. Minnesota Twins
Scherzer has been on a roll recently, posting a positive Plus/Minus in five straight starts. He’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of them, and he had 11 strikeouts in the other. Now, he’ll square off with a Twins squad that traded away 11 players at the deadline. They’re 23rd in wRC+ vs. right-handers over the past 30 days, and Scherzer’s 3.5 opponent implied run total is tied for second on the slate. The only reason he’s not a bigger favorite is that Joe Ryan will take the bump for Minnesota, so Scherzer might not get a ton of run support. Still, he has plenty of upside at a midrange price tag.
Michael McGreevy ($6,300) St. Louis Cardinals (-130) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
McGreevy is dirt cheap at $6,300 and typically provides plenty of volume. He’s gone at least six innings in five of his past six starts, including four straight. That gives him some potential, especially in an outstanding matchup vs. the Pirates. Pittsburgh ranks dead last in runs per game, and they’re 29th in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers. McGreevy is also projected for single-digit ownership, making him a very intriguing punt play at SP2 for tournaments.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by projected points using THE BAT X belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
The Dodgers haven’t been nearly as dominant as expected this season. They’re currently tied with the Padres atop the NL West standings, and they’re currently on pace to win fewer than 95 games. Their .565 win percentage is their lowest mark since 2018, despite spending huge money once again this offseason.
However, the offense has not been to blame. They’re first in the league in runs per game and second in homers, and they broke out the long ball in a win over the Padres on Sunday. They went deep four times in that contest, with Freddie Freeman homering twice.
They’re in an interesting spot on Monday. On one hand, their matchup vs. Hunter Greene is not great on paper. Greene has had a fantastic year when healthy, pitching to a 2.63 ERA and a 2.75 xERA. He has some of the filthiest stuff in the game, which he uses to pile up plenty of strikeouts.
However, Greene has made just two starts since returning from injury, so he’s still working his way up to speed. He also allows plenty of loud contact, ranking below-average in every batted-ball metric. Essentially, when batters do put the bat on the ball, they can do some damage against him.
That bodes well for the Dodgers. Outside of Shohei Ohtani and Teoscar Hernandez – who are both extremely dangerous – most of their top hitters have minimal strikeout rates vs. right-handers (via PlateIQ):
The Dodgers’ 4.4-run implied team total doesn’t jump off the page, but they’re still grading out extremely well in THE BAT X projections. Ohtani always carries ownership, but the rest of this stack could fly way under the radar. On a day where there are some more affordable pitching options than usual, a full Dodgers’ stack has plenty of upside for tournaments.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Trent Grisham, OF ($4,100) New York Yankees vs. Washington Nationals (Brad Lord)
Grisham continues to put together a completely unexpected breakout campaign. He has always been an elite defender with a below-average bat, but he’s changed that narrative in 2025. He launched two more homers on Sunday, bringing his tally to 25 for the year.
Grisham should occupy the leadoff spot in the Yankees’ lineup once again on Monday, putting him directly in front of some of the best hitters on the planet. That makes his $4,100 price tag look like a bargain. The Yankees boast the top implied team total of the day, and they should be able to do some damage against Lord and the Nationals’ bullpen. Ultimately, Grisham leads all batters in projected Plus/Minus using our blended projection set.
Miguel Vargas, 1B/3B ($3,200) Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals (Noah Cameron)
Vargas has quietly had a solid year for the White Sox, including a torrid stretch in May. He’s been more of a league-average hitter otherwise, but he’ll be on the positive side of his splits on Monday. He’s also expected to hit at the top of the White Sox lineup, and cheap leadoff hitters always have some appeal in DFS.
Cameron has been outstanding in his first year in the big leagues, but he’s started to show just a bit of regression. His FIP is up to 4.67 over his past six starts, and the White Sox have seen him recently. They should have more familiarity with his arsenal, which gives them some sneaky upside in this spot.
Elly De La Cruz, SS ($5,400) Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers (Emmet Sheehan)
De La Cruz is one of the most exciting players in the game, capable of going deep or stealing multiple bases any time he takes the field. He hasn’t been at his best in August, but that’s caused his price tag to dip to just $5,400 on Monday. He’s been priced above $6,000 at times just this month, so it represents a solid buy-low opportunity. Ultimately, he owns one of the top projected Plus/Minus marks in our blended projection set, and he leads all players in ceiling projection.
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Pictured: Jacob deGrom
Photo Credit: Imagn
