The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Jacob Misiorowski ($9,300) Milwaukee Brewers (-115) at Chicago Cubs
We’ve got a lot of solid pitching projections on Wednesday’s slate but no truly great options, with Misiorowski leading the pack of starters projecting for around 15 DraftKings points.
The Brewers electric rookie has pitched just once in August and it didn’t go well, recording just four outs while giving up five runs. However, prior to that he was outstanding, with a 3.89 ERA and strikeout rate north of 35%. The strikeouts are a crucial part of his production, as he was averaging less than five innings per start even before his last outing, so he needs to score in a hurry.
Still, we’d likely have him projected even higher if not for the matchup. The Cubs are a top-five overall offense in baseball and also have a relatively low strikeout rate. However, that’s mitigated a bit by the weather in Chicago, which limits both scoring and home runs by more than 20%, per Weather Edge.
On a slate with no standout option, that’s enough to tip the scales in favor of Misiorowski, who leads all pitchers in both median and ceiling projection (albeit narrowly) today.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
JP Sears ($6,500) San Diego Padres (-156) vs. San Francisco Giants
There are very few trades more favorable for a pitcher than going from the Athletics, who have one of the best pitcher’s parks in baseball until they finish the move to Las Vegas, to the Padres, who have a top pitcher’s park. That’s exactly what happened to Sears at the trade deadline.
Sears has a 5.12 ERA but 4.15 xERA on the season, with the gap mostly explained by park factors. Now, with Petco Park favoring pitchers, his rest-of-season ERA should theoretically be below his xERA — which makes him a huge value at $6,500.
To make the case for Sears even stronger, the Giants are the second-worst team in baseball against left-handed pitching. That’s reflected in their 3.7 run implied total, but not Sears’ salary. The only real concern is his 20.3% strikeout rate, but given his price tag, he doesn’t need many punchoutsto be a solid option.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Shohei Ohtani ($7,500) Los Angeles Dodgers (-310) at Colorado Rockies
Dodgers pitchers have made sense as GPP picks this week thanks to the high-variance nature of their games at Coors Field. While pitching at Coors is no easy task, that’s also meant matchups with the Rockies, one of the worst offenses in baseball.
That boom-or-bust projection is even more prevalent today with Ohtani on the mound. The Dodgers have been easing him in as a pitcher this season, with just 23.1 innings pitched through nine appearances. However, each start has been slightly longer than the last, with Ohtani’s recent outing going for 4.1 innings.
He struck out seven Angels in that one, good for just under 13 DraftKings points. We probably need him to score a bit over that at his current price tag, but that’s well within his range of outcomes if his trend of increasing start length continues.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
DraftKings doesn’t include Ohtani the hitter on days when Ohtani the pitcher takes the mound. That’s both a blessing and a curse for the Dodgers’ stack.
On the one hand, not being able to start their best bat obviously reduces the scoring potential of the lineup. On the other hand, nobody else can either, and the lack of Ohtani makes the best available stack about $2,000 cheaper than either of the past two days.
That’s a big difference and makes it so you can actually roster the Dodgers without totally punting at pitcher. They’ve averaged seven runs across two games at Coors Field and are implied for another 7.5 more, so loading up on their bats is a wise move.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Jurickson Profar OF ($4,400) Atlanta Braves at Chicago White Sox (Martin Perez)
Atlanta is the other top team to stack on Wednesday’s slate, as they host the White Sox and starting pitcher Martin Perez ($7,300). The left-handed Perez has a 3.09 ERA through 5 2025 appearances, but his xERA is more than double that, suggesting he’s been lucky more than good.
Even if you aren’t stacking the Braves, Profar makes sense as a one off. Not only is Profar set to bat first in the Braves lineup, but he also has the best wOBA numbers against lefties, as we see in PlateIQ:
Mickey Moniak OF ($3,800) Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (Shohei Ohtani)
While Ohtani is getting the start tonight, his ceiling is probably around five innings. That means Rockies hitters are still in play, as they’ll get about half of the game against the Dodgers’ struggling bullpen, with this game at Coors Field.
While the left-handed Moniak is unlikely to get to Ohtani, he could certainly put up some points against the Dodgers relievers. Plus, with Ohtani likely to carry the slate’s highest ownership, any Rockies bats will be somewhat contrarian.
For large-field GPPs it also makes some sense to roster a Rockies bat or two and Ohtani, since the combined ownership of that block will be very low, and it could still hit if the Rockies do well against the LA relievers.
Mike Tauchman OF ($3,300) Chicago White Sox vs. Atlanta Braves (Hurston Waldrep)
Tauchman has been the cheap piece that allows lineups to squeeze in the Dodgers this week. We featured him in this space yesterday, and he went 2 for 5 with a double and an RBI as the White Sox lost 10-11 to the Braves.
Chicago has now scored 19 runs across two games in Atlanta, with a solid (relative to their salary) 4.0-run total on Wednesday. With Tauchman setting the table for their lineup, he’s still underpriced at $3,300. Again, he’s not a massive upside player, but he doesn’t need to be if he allows access to better bats elsewhere.
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Pictured: Jacob Misiorowski
Photo Credit: Imagn
