The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Spencer Strider ($10,000) Atlanta Braves (-210) vs. Chicago White Sox
Spencer has had a hitch in his stride(r) over the past month or so, turning in four straight starts that failed to live up to salary-based expectations. Despite that, he’s more expensive this time out than he was in his last start, where he was blown up for eight earned runs in four innings.
That’s mostly due to the matchup dynamics. Last time he faced the Mets, the second-best offense in the MLB against right-handed pitching. This time he’s taking on the White Sox, the second-worst team against righties in the majors. That makes a huge difference in Strider’s outlook, as Chicago is implied for just 3.6 runs.
Strider’s poor form lately is certainly a concern, though. His ERA is in the mid-fours on the season, largely thanks to the bad recent stretch. Still, he clearly has the talent to get past a team like the White Sox, making him the top pitching play on the slate.
He has a comfortable lead in both median and ceiling projection while ranking second in Pts/Sal, making him an appropriate option for all contest types.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Nestor Cortes ($6,500) San Diego Padres (-147) vs. San Francisco Giants
Cortes is the lone starter with a better Pts/Sal projection than Strider, a fairly easy to accomplish feat considering his $6,500 price tag. His projection is also heavily based on the matchup — as well as the strong pitching Park Factor in San Diego.
While the Giants are a roughly average lineup against righties, against lefties like Cortes, they’re much worse. Their wRC+ drops to 72, the second worst in the league, while they also strike out at the second-highest rate.
Cortes faced these Giants in San Francisco in his last start, allowing one run while striking out six through 4.2 innings. While it wasn’t a massive DFS day, his 16.3 points on DraftKings were more than enough relative to his price tag.
A similar outcome tonight is reasonably likely, as it’s a slight upgrade in Park Factor at home in San Diego relative to San Francisco. Cortes’ 5.71 ERA and similar underlying numbers make him a bit scary, but the matchup makes it worth taking a chance.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Yoshinobu Yamamoto ($9,400) Los Angeles Dodgers (-295) at Colorado Rockies
Yamamoto is the classic example of a GPP play today. He’s the best pitcher on the main slate this evening by a wide margin and also has the best possible matchup for right-handers against the Rockies. He’s also pitching at Coors Field, which not only boosts scoring but also cuts strikeouts.
The market is taking a cautious approach, giving the Rockies a 4.2-run implied total despite the tough pitching matchup. Of course, that could be reflecting the odds that they get to the Dodgers bullpen, rather than Yamamoto. Still, those moderate market numbers are why it’s hard to project Yamamoto above Strider.
I’m not especially worried about his chances though, as he’s well-suited for a start at Coors Field. Yamamoto has a ground ball rate over 50% and a 28.3% strikeout rate. The thin air or huge dimensions in Colorado aren’t much of a factor if you can’t put the ball in play, or it stays on the ground when you do.
We’re projecting Yamamoto a cut behind Strider in ownership, making him an excellent GPP option.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
Yamamoto starting in Coors Field should’ve been a hint as to who the top stack would be today. His Dodgers have a top three offense in baseball and get to hit in the best hitter’s park in the MLB tonight.
They also have a solid matchup against Kyle Freeland ($4,500). While Freeland’s mid-fives ERA is somewhat a reflection of his home ballpark, his park-adjusted ERA indicators are in the mid-fours. Plus, we obviously shouldn’t be factoring out his home stats when he’s at home tonight.
The Dodgers’ stack is absurdly expensive, averaging over $6,000 per hitter. That makes it tough to build around, but they have some cheap hitters in the 7-9 spot with solid splits against lefties. I’d look to build “wrap around” stacks with the bottom of their lineup to make this stack work.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Miguel Rojas 2B ($3,600) Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies (Kyle Freeland)
I normally avoid doubling up with a hitter from the top stack, but Rojas is too interesting not to mention tonight.
The Dodgers’ #9 hitter is just $3,600, a major salary drop from the bats at the top of the lineup. He’s also much less likely to get subbed out if this one turns into a blowout than the superstars at the top.
Plus, PlateIQ shows that his numbers against lefties are comparable to some of the best on the team.
TJ Friedl OF ($3,900) Cincinnati Reds (-115) at Los Angeles Angels (Victor Mederos)
The Reds are another interesting team to target in stacks tonight, thanks to the elite matchup against Victor Mederos ($5,000) of the Angels. The 24-year-old righty has had brief stints in the majors in each of the past three seasons and has an ERA over eight across 16 innings pitched.
While the Reds aren’t a great offense, four of their first five hitters cost under $4,000, and their 4.6-run team total is solid. Friedl is likely the best value since he’s batting leadoff, but any of their bats are solid options.
Jurickson Profar OF ($3,900) Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox (Yoendrys Gomez)
While stacking the Dodgers offense with their pitcher is one way to build in some correlation to your lineup, another way is by stacking the Braves. Like the Dodgers, they’re taking on a bad team and have a juicy pitching matchup against Yoendrys Gomez ($5,500).
Gomez has an ERA in the mid-fives and worse underlying numbers, and the Braves have a solid 5.1-run implied total. They could easily keep pace with the Dodgers, with their top stack costing about $8,000 less.
Profar is a solid one-off at the top as well as the leadoff hitter for the team with the second-highest total on the slate, but this is really about stacking his teammates as well.
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Pictured: Spencer Strider
Photo Credit: Imagn
