The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Garret Crochet ($10,900) Boston Red Sox (-247) vs. Kansas City Royals
Boston acquired Crochet from the White Sox in the offseason in hopes that he would improve upon his breakout 2024 campaign and become the Red Sox ace for years to come. If anything, he continues to exceed expectations, with a 2.23 ERA — despite pitching home games at hitter-friendly Fenway Park—and a 31% strikeout rate.
Those elite numbers make him worthy of playing in any matchup, but he has a particularly strong one on Tuesday. His Red Sox host the Royals, whose 80 wRC+ against left-handed pitching ranks 25th in the league. Their 3.2-run implied total is the second lowest on the slate, and Boston is installed as a heavy favorite.
That’s enough to make Crochet the clear leader in median and ceiling projection, though he comes with a correspondingly high salary. With an expensive, but very attractive, top stack, he’s fairly hard to get to from a salary standpoint.
On the plus side, that means his ownership will be lower than it otherwise would be, improving his outlook for GPPs. If you can find the salary, he’s a solid play in all contest types.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Yu Darvish ($6,100) San Diego Padres (-133) at Arizona Diamondbacks
One way to save some salary on Tuesday is to take a shot on Yu Darvish. The veteran righty didn’t make his season debut for the Padres until July and had a relatively rough go of it through his first four games. That all turned around in his last outing, where he held the Mets scoreless over seven innings.
Even when Darvish was performing poorly, his underlying numbers were much better. His ERA is 6.46 but his xERA is barely half of that, and his 17.5% strikeout rate is exceedingly low relative to his 11.3% swinging strike rate. That makes him a solid regression candidate in general, especially if he’s found his stride after starting the year injured.
However, the matchup couldn’t be worse. Arizona leads the majors in wRC+ against righties, and this game being in Arizona means Darvish isn’t even protected by his home stadium’s elite park factor for pitchers.
That makes Darvish a pretty big risk, but he does lead the slate in Pts/Sal projection. That risk might be a necessary one if trying to afford Crochet, but it’s not the most comfortable option.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Bryan Woo ($10,300) Seattle Mariners (-250) vs. Chicago White Sox
On the opposite end of the matchup and park factor spectrum, we have Bryan Woo. He’s taking on the White Sox, who rank 29th in wRC+ against righties. Plus, the game is at home in Seattle, the best pitcher’s park in baseball by a wide margin.
Which is an important detail for Woo, who has an ERA at home of 2.29 but a less exciting 3.62 on the road. While he’s not a huge strikeout pitcher like Crochet, his 24.2% rate is serviceable and could lead to a big score if he lasts long enough into the contest.
More importantly, he’s $600 cheaper on a slate where salary is extremely tight. He could end up the optimal play even with fewer total points than Crochet, thanks to his ability to free up salary. Woo ranks just behind Crochet in both median and ceiling projections.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Toronto Blue Jays:
Toronto featured in this section yesterday, where they more than lived up to expectations by dropping 15 runs on the Rockies in Coors Field.
While that’s an unreasonable expectation, they still lead the slate with a massive 7.2-run total, nearly two full runs clear of any other team on the slate. They’re facing AAA call-up, Anthony Molina ($4,00) as a starter/opener today. Molina has an ERA north of seven across five big league appearances, all out of the bullpen.
After allowing 15 runs yesterday, the Rockies bullpen is already thin, so they’ll either be counting on Molina to eat innings or going back to a group that handled 6.1 innings of work yesterday. Either option is good news for the Jays.
While this group is expensive, we can also target other, cheaper Toronto bats if needed. Another blowout could mean players like Guerrero or Kirk get pulled early (as they did yesterday), so lower in the lineup bats may actually be optimal.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Danny Jansen C ($2,600) Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves (Joey Wentz)
I mentioned Kirk getting pulled early from last night’s contest because pivoting at catcher is an easy way to save salary while still stacking the Blue Jays. As the most physically demanding position, catchers are the likeliest to get time off in a blowout, even if they didn’t play a full game yesterday.
Plus, we have a very cheap alternative option in Jansen, thanks to his standout numbers against lefties. Those are obvious in PlateIQ:
Jansen is priced appropriately for his .695 overall OPS, but that number jumps to .821 against southpaws, making him a solid value.
Josh Smith 1B/3B ($3,500) Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees (Will Warren)
While Smith doesn’t fit around the Blue Jays stack as listed, third baseman Addison Barger is their worst Pts/Sal option — and outfield eligible if you still want to keep him in your lineup. Plus, Smith’s multi-position eligibility makes him easy to maneuver around any stack you’re interested in.
The Rangers’ likely leadoff man gets an interesting matchup against Will Warren ($8,000). Warren has a 4.64 ERA on the season and a .370 wOBA allowed against lefties compared to .255 against righties. That makes Smith and other Rangers left-handed bats like Joc Pederson OF ($2,300) interesting options tonight.
Jarren Duran OF ($4,400) Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals (Ryan Bergert)
Boston is an interesting alternate stack option tonight and should be fairly contrarian thanks to the chalk forming around the Blue Jays. Their five-run total is solid, and they could explode for much more in a great pitching matchup against the Royals’ Ryan Bergert ($6,900).
Bergert has a 2.78 ERA on the season, where he’s split time between the rotation and the bullpen. However, his ERA predictors sit in the mid-fours. He’s also newly acquired from the Padres, where he had an excellent pitching park factor for home games.
Fenway Park is one of the best hitter’s parks in baseball (as is Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City) so regression could hit hard for Berger. Duran is a logical starting point for Boston stacks, with his .262 average and power/speed combination — but the whole team is interesting.
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Pictured: Garrett Crochet
Photo Credit: Imagn
