Same game parlays are one of the most entertaining ways to bet. It allows you to place multiple wagers over the same contest, giving you more upside than a traditional wager without having to sweat out multiple games.
It also allows you to build some correlation into your parlays. That correlation will be factored in by the sportsbooks, but that still creates an opportunity for bettors. You can build out bet slips where if one leg hits, it makes it more likely that the others will hit as well.
Let’s dive into my favorite same game parlay for Thursday’s MLB slate, featuring the Seattle Mariners and the Los Angeles Angels.
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Angels vs. Mariners: Under 9
The Los Angeles Angels and Seattle Mariners play the concluding match of their four-game set in Anaheim on Sunday afternoon. The M’s took the series opener and eviscerated the Angels last night, with LA taking the Friday night showdown in extras. Runs have been hard to come by for the Angels, but we expect Seattle to have a hard time pulling away in this intra-divisional affair.
The Mariners send Logan Gilbert to the bump for today’s series finale. The hard-throwing righty has an elite analytics profile that has yielded positive results — particularly in the short term. Since the start of July, Gilbert is toting a minuscule 2.08 ERA while giving up just five earned runs across 21.2 innings pitched. More impressively, he hasn’t allowed an earned run in any of his last 11.2 innings pitched.
At the same time, we have Kyle Hendricks earmarked for meaningful progression. The Angels’ probable starter has had a rough go but isn’t as bad as he’s shown. Hendricks has a 6.59 ERA across his previous three starts, significantly above his season-long mark of 4.92. Further, both of those benchmarks put him well above his expected ERA of 3.79. Naturally, we should see the righty work his way back down toward his normal range over his coming starts.
The Mariners’ offense has been stagnant of late. Likewise, the Angels aren’t the type of team to put up crooked offensive numbers. With two underappreciated arms on the mound, we’re taking a stance on the under in this AL West affair.
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Logan Gilbert to Record 8+ Strikeouts
Logan Gilbert’s sterling ERA this month is just the tip of the analytics iceberg. The Mariners’ righty is arguably in the most dominant stretch of his career, and that’s reflected in his strikeout totals and metrics.
Using the same four-game sample, Gilbert has struck out 31 batters over his last 21.2 innings pitched. Moreover, 19 of those punchies have come across his last two starts, totaling 11.2 innings pitched. Of course, that 14.7 K/9 rate will be hard to sustain in the long term. Still, he doesn’t need to operate at peak efficiency to reach a very achievable eight strikeouts versus the Angels.
Inarguably, Gilbert is one of the best strikeout pitchers in the bigs. He sits in the 87th percentile with a 32.0% chase rate and the 96th percentile in whiff rate. Altogether, that translates to a 36.3% strikeout rate, putting Gilbert among the top 2% of MLB pitchers.
The Angels have struck out 21 times over their last two games. Surely, Logan Gilbert will add to those woes on Sunday. We’re backing Gilbert to do most of the damage, seeing immense value in backing him to record eight or more strikeouts at Angel Stadium.
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Julio Rodriguez to Record 3+ Hits+Runs+RBIs
The top of the Mariners lineup usually does most of the heavy lifting. Cal Raleigh has emerged as an MVP threat in the American League, overshadowing a resurgent Julio Rodriguez. Expect the M’s franchise cornerstone to be a factor in the series finale.
J-Rod has been sensational in this series. The center fielder has two hits in four straight games, accompanied by four earned runs, four RBI, and four home runs, all of which have come versus the Angels. In reconciling his current form with underlying metrics, it’s clear that Rodriguez remains a solid bet to sustain his pace on Sunday.
With his recent hot play, J-Rod’s slugging percentage has jumped to .436. However, that still puts him more than 30 points below his expected value of .469. Supported by his elite bat speed and hard-hit metrics, we’re forecasting ongoing dominance from the young phenom, as actual stats catch up with expected metrics.
Julio Rodriguez has been an Angels’ killer in this series, and that’s predicted to continue as Seattle goes for the decisive series win. Including him to eclipse three hits+runs+RBIs is a value play worth including in this Same Game Parlay.
Pictured: Logan Gilbert
Photo credit: Getty Images
