Unlike the Western Conference Finals, Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals had all the fireworks. The Pacers had yet another massive fourth quarter comeback to force overtime and would eventually go on to win 138-135. It was the first time in 977 instances in the play-by-play era that a team down 14+ points with 2:50 left in a playoff game came back to win. That is what this Pacers team has done all postseason. They are six-point road favorites in Game 2 with the total hovering around 224.5 points tonight. Expect another up-tempo game environment with plenty of fantasy scoring potential.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups. Also, make sure to check this article if you’re looking for a refresher on the single-game format.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Stud Picks
Jalen Brunson had a fantastic Game 1, scoring a playoff-high 43 points while shooting 15-for-25 from the field and 12-for-14 from the free-throw line. It should be no surprise that he leads all players in projected ceiling. Most of his fantasy production has come from scoring the ball, averaging 29.9 points per game, which is up from 26.0 in the regular season, but Brunson also has two double-doubles this postseason.
Among the remaining teams, the Pacers have the worst defensive rating and have played at the second-highest pace behind the Thunder in the playoffs. Brunson shot 53.7% from the field and 50% from behind the arc against this Pacers team during the regular season and has picked up right where he left off in this matchup in Game 1. He is projected for a game-high 32.6% usage rate and is a strong pay-up option.
The hero of Game 1 was Pacers’ guard Tyrese Haliburton. He recorded a 31-point, 11-assist double-double and the shot to send the game to overtime with time expiring. Brunson won the Clutch Award during the regular season and has been great, but Haliburton has a plethora of clutch moments already during the Pacers’ playoff run. With his dual-threat abilities, Haliburton is easily the Pacers player to target.
Despite two poor performances against the Cavaliers’ elite defense, Haliburton has been a star this postseason. He has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in nine of his 11 playoff games with six points and assists double-doubles. Being only $400 less than Brunson is keeping his projected ownership in check. Among the three stud pay-up options, Haliburton is by far the lowest owned and will be a contrarian play.
Leading the slate in projected ownership is Karl-Anthony Towns, who is $400 cheaper than Haliburton and $800 cheaper than Brunson. Towns had the most fantasy points in Game 1 with 60 after posting a 35-point, 12-rebound double-double. Towns has taken a little bit of a step back during the postseason after posting career-high numbers in the regular season, but this matchup is too juicy to ignore his potential.
During the season the Pacers ranked 28th in rebounding percentage at 48.3% and 26th in points allowed in the paint at 51.3 per game. Towns torched the Pacers during the regular season, averaging 30.3 points and 12 rebounds per game while shooting 56.6% from the field and 46.7% from deep. Due to his cheaper price tag, ceiling potential, and elite matchup, Towns can make a strong case for the best captain option.
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NBA DFS Mid-Range Picks
Similar to Towns, Josh Hart was dominant on the glass with 13 rebounds. Hart stuffs the stat sheet in a variety of ways. In the Knicks’ close-out game against the Celtics, Hart had a triple-double. He flirted with one in Game 1 with eight points, seven assists, and 13 rebounds. Always going to play the most minutes he can handle, Hart is an amazing mid-range option tonight with slate-breaking fantasy scoring potential.
Pascal Siakam has been a steady contributor for the Pacers and makes a fantastic cash-game option. Over his last three games, Siakam is averaging 19.7 points, 6.3 rebounds, 4.3 assists, and 38.4 DraftKings points per game, while shooting 52.7% from the field. He has posted a positive Plus/Minus in each game. He is projected for the highest usage rate on the Pacers and that cannot go overlooked in this matchup.
Knicks’ forward Mikal Bridges is very similar to Siakam, being more of a cash-game option than GPP. He is a tenacious defender who is averaging three total blocks and steals per game in the playoffs. Bridges can also be productive on the offensive end, especially if his perimeter jump shot is falling. He will more than likely be around that 35-DraftKings point range, which is enough to pay-off his $8,000 price tag tonight.
OG Anunoby has more risk than the three mid-range players above him, but his ceiling can compete with everyone, making him a better tournament option. Anunoby has four 40-DraftKings point games during the postseason along with five under 25 DraftKings points, including a game recording 5.5 points in 31 minutes. A boom-or-bust fantasy option that would be worth getting overexposed to in tournaments.
Myles Turner is cheaper than Anunoby but projected for a higher ceiling projection, which makes him a much more popular option. His last two games, including Game 1, have been subpar, but Turner posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his previous six games. Turner’s block potential also increases his floor. The Knicks allowed five blocks per game during the season making this an intriguing matchup for Turner.
Pacers’ guard Andrew Nembhard has been an amazing backcourt sidekick for Haliburton. His ability to create his own shot and be in the right place at the right time has been beneficial to his Pacers playoff run. In his 11 playoff games, Nembhard has increased his scoring from 10 during the season to 14.6 in the postseason and is shooting 51.3% from the field and 51.1% from distance. He is a great player to bet on.
Aaron Nesmith willed the Pacers to their incredible comeback in Game 1, connecting on eight of his nine 3-point attempts. He cashed in 30 points and 42.5 DraftKings points. He is shooting an absurd 53.8% from behind the arc during the postseason. Most of Nesmith’s work is done defensively trying to slow down Brunson, but Game 1 displayed he has ceiling potential. He is one of the best mid-range options.
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NBA DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Bennedict Mathurin ($4,600): After the starters, there is a massive drop-off not only in salary but also in production. The highest-priced punt option, Bennedict Mathurin, has been very boom-or-bust during that postseason. He recorded three straight games with 20+ DraftKings points against the Cavaliers and followed that up with an average of 6.3 DraftKings points per game in his last three games.
- Obi Toppin ($4,200): Obi Toppin ended up closing for the Pacers in Game 1 and recorded a near double-double with eight points and 10 rebounds. He had a massive dunk to push the lead to three in overtime. Comparing him to Mathurin is an easy decision for me. Toppin has posted a positive Plus/Minus in six straight games. He will be much more popular than Mathurin, but deservedly so.
- Mitchell Robinson ($4,000): Mitchell Robinson‘s playing time has been steady in the playoffs and he is projected to play 20 minutes again tonight. With that projection, Robinson is firmly in play from a value perspective. He has posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his last six games and has an elite matchup against a weak Pacers interior defense. Robinson should dominate the glass again tonight.
- TJ McConnell ($3,200): TJ McConnell scored double-digit points for the third time in his last four games. He will likely only play 15 minutes tonight, but McConnell is going to be very effective when he is on the floor. His 22.4% projected usage rate is not a joke because the offense runs through him in the second unit. Priced at $3,200, McConnell will have plenty of opportunity to pay off his salary.
- Miles McBride ($2,600): When the Knicks go to their small-ball lineup without Robinson, it is Miles McBride who is given that opportunity. He is also projected to play 20 minutes but has averaged 28.7 minutes per game in his last three games because he can fill it up. McBride does have boom-or-bust tendencies but he will get every opportunity to shine in this matchup against a fast-paced team.
- Thomas Bryant ($1,000): Last but not least is min-priced Pacers’ backup center Thomas Bryant. He is an elite play in a stars and scrubs lineup build. Bryant has a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his last eight games and his size and strength is needed against a bigger Knicks frontcourt. Projected to play 10 minutes, Bryant is simply too cheap. Expect his ownership to continue to rise throughout the day.
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