The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: LaMelo Ball vs. San Antonio Spurs – $10,400 DraftKings, $9,900 FanDuel
This may be one of the first times that Luka Doncic is on a slate, that he isn’t the top ceiling point guard. Instead, he ranks third behind Ja Morant and LaMelo Ball as the addition of Kyrie Irving limits his ceiling along with the difficult matchup against the Nuggets. Since Doncic is a fade candidate, the top spot will go to Ball, who gets a juicy matchup against the Spurs. The Hornets are seven-point home favorites implied for a slate-high 124.25 points.
The Hornets may be 1-7 in their last eight games, but Ball has been ballin’. Over that time, he has averaged 23.8 points, nine assists, and eight rebounds per game with a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel in seven of those eight games. The Spurs have lost 13 consecutive games as they have the worst Defensive Rating (120.0), entering tonight’s games. As the only game above a 240-point total, expect fireworks from Ball, who has triple-double upside.
Top Value: Devonte’ Graham at Charlotte Hornets – $4,000 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel
Newly acquired Devonte’ Graham has been a great addition to the Spurs offense. In his first three games wearing the black and silver, Graham has averaged 17.3 points and 32.8 DraftKings points per game off the bench. The Spurs will be without Tre Jones, Devin Vassell, and Romeo Langford, paving the way for more minutes for Graham. We have Graham projected for over 25 minutes as he has the highest projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings at the point guard position.
The Graham and Ball mini-stack is one of the best routes to take on DraftKings tonight. Priced at $4,000, Graham is much $1,200 cheaper than FanDuel and has a 97% Bargain Rating. He will likely continue to come off the bench even with Jones out, but Graham is worth getting exposure to at this very cheap price tag. The Hornets rank 25th in defensive rating, while allowing 119.1 points per game. Great game environment for two strong point guard options.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Zach LaVine at Indiana Pacers – $8,500 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel
Zach LaVine is our top ceiling shooting guard at this very weak position. Using our On/Off Tool, LaVine has a team-high +3.5% usage rate and a +3.4 DraftKings Plus/Minus when DeMar DeRozan is off the floor this season. With a 31.9% usage rate, LaVine will dictate most of the Bulls offense. He is a pure scorer averaging 23.9 points per game this season. He has also played 40 minutes in three of his last four games while projected for 39 minutes tonight.
LaVine looks great on FanDuel priced at only $7,600 with a 98% Bargain Rating. He has the highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate with 11 Pro Trends. LaVine is averaging five more points per game without DeRozan this season and now draws an incredible matchup against the Pacers, who have the seventh-worst Defensive Rating and the seventh-highest Pace.
For the Bulls to be competitive, it will need to be on the back of Zach LaVine.
Top Value: Ayo Dosunmu at Indiana Pacers – $4,400 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel
Bulls point guard Ayo Dosunmu is the best guard value play on this 10-game slate, priced at $4,400 on both DraftKings and FanDuel. DeMar DeRozan is out for the Bulls, while Alex Caruso is listed as questionable, giving a boost to Dosunmu’s production. He has recorded 20+ DraftKings points in six of his last eight games. Dosunmu is projected for the fourth-highest projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel and the sixth-highest on DraftKings.
For the second-straight year, Dosunmu is shooting over 50% from the field while averaging a career-high 9.5 points per game this season. He doesn’t have the highest usage playing alongside DeRozan and Zach LaVine, but Dosunmu’s playing time increases by five minutes per game in the four games DeRozan has missed this season. If Caruso is unable to play, this spot gets even better.
Dosunmu is point guard-only eligible on DraftKings but offers salary relief for both sites.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: LeBron James vs. New Orleans Pelicans – $10,800 DraftKings, $10,300 FanDuel
LeBron James hasn’t played since his record-breaking performance against the Thunder. He has missed three-straight games but is reportedly eyeing his return tonight before the Lakers go on All-Star Break. Make sure to monitor our news dashboard to make sure James is playing, but he looks like a strong pay-up option as his salary has come down considerably on both sites now that Anthony Davis is also healthy and playing at an elite level.
In his 20th season in the league, it is absurd that James is averaging over 30 points per game while shooting over 50% from the field. He is still averaging 8.5 rebounds and seven assists per game as he should be well rested in this home game against the Pelicans. The Lakers are 3.5-point home favorites with a 119-point implied team total.
James’ ownership is under 5% on both DraftKings and FanDuel, making him a contrarian pay-up option tonight.
Top Value: Jae’Sean Tate at Oklahoma City Thunder – $3,600 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel
Another fantastic game environment on this 10-game slate is this matchup between the Thunder and Rockets. The Thunder rank third in Pace (102.1) while allowing 116.6 points per game. Rockets forward Jae’Sean Tate has played 24+ minutes in each of his last three games, with Kevin Porter Jr. still out, while being projected for 25 minutes tonight. Tate is very cheap on DraftKings at $3,600 as he has proven upside when given the minutes to succeed.
Tate has only played in 19 games while starting in the last four. His production has dipped, which is why he is so cheap on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight. The Rockets are nearly double-digit road underdogs, but this game total still features 236 points. 18 of the last 26 Thunder home games have gone over the points total, so expect a shootout in Oklahoma City tonight.
Prioritize Tate on DraftKings, where he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at this position.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Jimmy Butler at Brooklyn Nets – $8,800 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel
Despite having the lowest total on the slate at 105.5 points, Jimmy Butler still has the highest ceiling at the power forward position. Butler is coming off of a near triple-double where he recorded 24 points, 10 rebounds, and nine assists in the close loss to the Nuggets last game. The Heat will be without Tyler Herro and Kyle Lowry, which will provide a significant boost to Butler, who has a +2.6% usage rate and a +5.4 DraftKings Plus/Minus with those two starters off the floor.
Butler is averaging 21.9 points per game, which is the most he has averaged since his first season with the Timberwolves in 2017. He is also shooting a career-high 51% from the field and adding six rebounds and five assists per game. The Nets have the worst Rebounding Percentage (47.5%), making this another rebounding upside game for Butler. The total is extremely low, but Butler is in a good spot with Herro and Lowry for a ceiling performance.
Top Value: Brandon Clarke vs. Utah Jazz – $4,500 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel
The second-best game environment on this 10-game slate is this matchup with the Grizzlies hosting the Jazz. Brandon Clarke remains very affordable with Steven Adams out, even when continuing to come off the bench. Clarke has displayed double-double upside in recent games and is averaging double-digit points in each of his four seasons in the league. He is a very productive, high-energy big man who should cause havoc against a weak Jazz frontcourt.
This is a great spot for Clarke, as the Jazz are allowing 54.3 points per game in the paint, which ranks as the fourth-highest in the league. Clarke has attempted a career-low 0.1 3-pointers per game, as all of his production comes from scoring in the paint. He is shooting a career-high 66.8% from the field, while making 13 of 15 in his last two games.
The Jazz are a strong rebounding team, but the double-double upside is there for the Grizzlies backup power forward.
Center
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic vs. Dallas Mavericks – $11,800 DraftKings, $12,000 FanDuel
Finally, we get to Nikola Jokic, who has the highest ceiling on both DraftKings and FanDuel in our NBA Model for tonight’s slate. The Nuggets have a five-game lead entering the last game before the All-Star Break, as they are led by the back-to-back MVP, who is the favorite to win his third-straight MVP award. Jokic is averaging a triple-double for the first time in his career with 24.9 points, 11.4 rebounds, and 10.1 assists per game this season.
The Nuggets may be without Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon, who have both missed games due to injury management and are questionable to play tonight. With both off the floor, Jokic has a team-high +3.9% usage rate and a +2.3 DraftKings Plus/Minus. The Nuggets are 20-0 when Jokic has a triple-double.
Being this low-owned, Jokic has a 99% Leverage percentage on DraftKings and 96% on FanDuel.
The over on Underdog Fantasy looks intriguing for Jokic’s points, rebounds, and assists (49.5).
Top Value: Mark Williams vs. San Antonio Spurs – $5,300 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel
The center position is loaded on this 10-game slate with options in every pricing tier. Mark Williams was one of the biggest winners at the trade deadline, with the Hornets trading away starting center Mason Plumlee to make room for Williams, who hasn’t disappointed in his extra playing time. Over the last three games with Plumlee gone, Williams is averaging 10.7 points and 7.3 rebounds per game while shooting 63.2% from the field.
It is hard to find a better matchup for any center against the Spurs defense. They are allowing a league-high 56.4 points per game in the paint as they also rank 21st in Rebounding Percentage. Fellow rookie Jalen Duren for the Pistons just had 30 points and 17 rebounds against this Spurs frontcourt on Friday night. Great spot for a ceiling game from Williams, who has played 30 minutes in two of his last three games since entering the starting lineup.
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