Same game parlays are one of the most entertaining ways to bet. It allows you to place multiple wagers over the same contest, giving you more upside than a traditional wager without having to sweat out multiple games.
It also allows you to build some correlation into your parlays. That correlation will be factored in by the sportsbooks, but that still creates an opportunity for bettors. You can build out bet slips where if one leg hits, it makes it more likely that the others will hit as well.
Let’s dive into my favorite same game parlay for Tuesday’s MLB slate, featuring the New York Yankees and the Toronto Blue Jays
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New York Yankees ML (+104) at Toronto Blue Jays
We’ve seen a pretty drastic shift atop the AL East standings over the past month. The Yankees have spent most of the season as the top team in the division, but they’re currently mired in a deep slump. They’ve won just 13 of their past 33 games, dropping them to just 10 games over .500 for the year.
Meanwhile, the Blue Jays have been red hot. They’ve gone 13-3 in July, including a win over the Yankees on Monday. They’re not just atop the division at this point; they’ve established a 4.0-game lead. Their playoff odds have improved to 94.5% per FanGraphs, and they’re better than 56% to win the division.
That said, the Yankees are still the better team in my eyes. In terms of run differential, the Yankees have posted a +109 mark that trails only the Cubs. The Blue Jays are merely +29 runs, which ranks 13th in the league. It gives the Yankees an expected record of 61-39, while the Blue Jays have an expected record of just over .500 (53-47).
Tuesday’s contest between these squads features an interesting pitching matchup. The Yankees will turn to Cam Schlittler, who is making just his second career start. The Blue Jays will hand the ball to Max Scherzer, who is a no-doubt future Hall-of-Famer but is about to turn 41 years old.
At this point, Schlittler seems like the better pitcher. His ERA was over 5.00 in his first start, but he looked electric on the bump. His xERA checked in at 2.84, while he managed seven punchouts in 5.1 innings. Scherzer’s ERA and xERA are both over 4.40, and he’s allowed plenty of loud contact.
Ultimately, this feels like the perfect time to buy low on New York.
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Yankees Team Total Over 4.5 Runs
We’re not getting a great price tag by combining the Yankees over 4.5 runs with the team’s moneyline. These two wagers are extremely correlated, so DraftKings is pricing it accordingly.
That said, if the Yankees are going to win this game, it’s hard to imagine they do so without scoring at least five runs. Despite their recent skid, the Yankees’ average of 5.21 runs per game still ranks third in the league. Only the Dodgers and Cubs have been better in that department.
The Yankees are a bit of a “boom-or-bust” type of offense, possessing a host of players with massive power and questionable contact skills. That should play nicely against Scherzer, who has allowed 1.96 homers per nine innings through five starts this season. If they can swat a couple long balls, they’re well on their way to getting to five runs.
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Cody Bellinger 1+ Home Runs
Speaking of the long ball, Bellinger stands out as an excellent value to go deep on Tuesday, and he pushes the overall payout on this SGP to +700. That’s a risk I’m willing to take.
Bellinger has had an excellent season for the Yankees, posting a 127 wRC+ with 17 homers. It’s just one fewer homer than he had in 130 games with the Cubs last season, and he’s on pace for the most homers he’s hit in a year since his MVP campaign in 2019.
Bellinger is the rare left-handed bat who actually fares better against southpaws, so he won’t necessarily be on the positive side of his splits vs. Scherzer. However, Bellinger is still more than capable against righties, and Scherzer has been absolutely dreadful against lefties this season. His HR/9 spikes to 3.00 in that split, while opposing lefties are slugging better than .550 against him. Ultimately, targeting the Yankees’ lefties in this spot makes a ton of sense, and Bellinger is one of my favorites.
Pictured: Cody Bellinger, Aaron Judge
Photo credit: Imagn
