WM Phoenix Open: Top PGA DFS Picks, Values, and Sleepers for Large-Field GPPs on DraftKings

The PGA TOUR heads from the Pacific Ocean to the Valley of the Sun this week, as the players get ready for the annual Super Bowl week tradition of visiting TPC Scottsdale for the WM Phoenix Open. Scottie Scheffler leads a strong field at the WM Phoenix Open in the “People’s Open,” which boasts the loudest hole in golf at the “Coliseum” and the biggest crowds of any PGA TOUR stop. With a well-known course and plenty of hype and drama, it is set up to be a great week of fantasy golf. Let’s dive into a few of the top options for tournament lineups, according to the FantasyLabs models.

Two of the three PGA TOUR winners this season are in the same group to start the week, with Scottie Scheffler and Chris Gotterup joined by the always-popular Jordan Spieth. Last week’s winner, Justin Rose, is taking the week off, but last year’s winner, Thomas Detry, is in the field along with two-time winner Brooks Koepka, who made his PGA TOUR return last week. For more on the field, format, courses, and what to look for from a statistical perspective this week, check out this First Look from RotoGrinders.

Especially in large-field GPP tournaments, you’ll want to make sure to target players who have lower ownership projections than their potential performance suggests. Finding high-leverage plays is critical for GPP success, so the picks here go against the grain, looking for under-owned options.

Usually, I rely heavily on the Strokes Gained Model in FantasyLabs, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean toward players who excel in Strokes Gained: Approach, which is more sustainable week to week than a hot putter.

Since these are GPP picks, we can accept more risk in exchange for getting a higher ceiling. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownership create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that often lead to large-field success. To find guidance for all contest types, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.

No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A few critical new stats for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.

As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.

Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.

Editor’s note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.

High-Priced PGA DFS Picks

Cameron Young $9,800

Yes, Scottie Scheffler is a good play this week. He’s won here before and is in dominant form. My colleague, Alex Hunter, covered him in cash plays for this tournament, and if he wins, he’ll obviously be a great GPP play as well. He is the heavy favorite and has the highest SimLeverage on the board since his ownership is a little lower because of his salary.

Instead of running down Scheffler’s elite numbers again, let’s look at a pivot play that you can consider if you want to partner Scheffler with another elite play or build around an alternative for maximum leverage. Of the top non-Scheffler options, Cameron Young has the second-highest SimLeverage of all players over $8,000.

Young is outside of the top 15 in ownership projection, but he’s inside the top 15 in Perfect%, median, ceiling, and floor projections. The 28-year-old got his breakthrough win at the Wyndham Championship last season after multiple near misses and finished with eight top-10 finishes and 12 top-25 finishes in his 25 official events last season. He picked up where he left off with a solid T22 at the Farmers last week in his season debut.

While Young’s well-rounded, balanced game fits almost any setup, he’s 4-for-4 making the cut in Scottsdale with a T8 and a T12 in the last two seasons. Last year, he opened with a 74 before finding his groove and finishing with 64-66-67.

Over the last 24 rounds, Young ranks second in Total Strokes Gained, fourth in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, and fourth in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee. He has the ability to go low and contend at this course and is a solid pivot option if you pass on Scottie due to his high salary and ownership projections.

Ben Griffin $9,500

Griffin has the third-highest ceiling and median projections along with the second-highest floor projections in the entire field this week. He has the third-highest Perfect% and ties Scheffler for the most Pro Trends matched in the field. He has the highest SimLeverage of all the options over $8,000, except for Scheffler as well.

After last year’s breakthrough season, Griffin has posted a pair of top-25 finishes this year. He finished T19 in Hawaii and T24 in La Quinta before getting last week off. Dating back to last season, he has eight straight top-25 finishes, including his win last November in Mexico at the World Wide Technology Championship.

Griffin has the right kind of game for this course, and he has shown that with two made cuts in his two trips to this event. He started both weeks a little shaky in Round 1 but then settled in and posted a T28 and a T36.

In the last 12 rounds, the last 36 rounds, and the last 50 rounds, Griffin is second in the field in Total Strokes Gained. Since he comes in with such outstanding form, he should be able to improve on those results and deliver a great week. He and Young can form the core of a great non-Scottie lineup that leaves plenty of salary to spend in the other spots.

Now available: our PGA DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.

Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks

Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.

Editor’s note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.