Week 9 NFL DFS QB Breakdown: Top Cash Game and Tournament Picks

The quarterback position is one of the most flexible in NFL DFS. You can go in a variety of different ways. Do you pay up for one of the top studs or try to save some money with a value option? Do you eat the chalk or look for a low-owned option with upside? There’s no 100% one-size-fits-all answer, so each slate and contest type is going to require thought and consideration.

In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.

As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

Top NFL DFS Cash Game Options

Jaxson Dart ($5,200 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel)

It has been an up-and-down season for the Giants. They’ve won just two of their first eight games, and they’ve had to deal with a pair of unfortunate injuries. Malik Nabers went down with a torn ACL in Week 4, and promising rookie RB Cam Skattebo suffered a gruesome ankle injury last week.

However, the Giants have also seemingly found an answer at quarterback. Dart looks the part in his first professional season, despite all the negatives working against him. He’s been particularly viable for fantasy purposes thanks to his rushing ability. Dart has averaged 39.0 rushing yards per game in his five starts, and he’s added four rushing scores. That’s a lot of production before factoring in anything that he does with his arm.

Since taking over as the Giants’ starter, Dart is No. 6 at the position in terms of fantasy points per game. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each contest, despite having to navigate a tough string of matchups. He’s had to face the Broncos, Eagles (twice), and Chargers in four of five outings, yet he’s still managed more than 22 DraftKings points per game.

Dart gets one of the easiest matchups of his early career in Week 9. He’s taking on the 49ers, who are merely 26th in pass defense EPA for the year. Their defense also has the potential to get worse as the year progresses after losing stud linebacker Fred Warner to injury.

Despite his production, Dart remains priced like one of the worst QBs on the slate at just $5,200 on DraftKings. It results in a massive 97% Bargain Rating, and he leads the position in projected Plus/Minus. He’s the clear top cash game option on that site.

Patrick Mahomes ($7,100 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel)

Things are a bit trickier to decipher on FanDuel. There are a host of QBs with comparable projections in the $6,900 to $7,800 range, and it’s tough to choose between that group.

However, Mahomes is projected to have the most ownership at the position. It’s hard to argue against that. He’s put together his best statistical campaign in years, and he currently leads all QBs with an average of 25.0 fantasy points per game. He’s using his legs more than we’ve seen in years past, and his passing production has ticked way up with the return of Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy. Mahomes has thrown at least three touchdown passes in four of his past five games, and he leads the league with 17 touchdown passes overall.

The Chiefs and Bills will square off in a potential AFC Championship preview in Week 9. This game leads the slate with a 52.5-point total, and the Chiefs are slight 1.5-point road favorites. It suggests a high-scoring affair with plenty of upside on both sides.

Mahomes has historically done some of his best work in this matchup. He’s averaged 24.31 FanDuel points in nine career meetings vs. the Bills, good for an average Plus/Minus of +3.83 (per the Trends tool). Mahomes has struggled a bit in his last two matchups in Buffalo, but he erupted for 30.1 FanDuel points against them at Arrowhead in the playoffs.

Buffalo’s defense has not been nearly as impactful this season, and it’s hard to argue against Mahomes with the way he’s playing at the moment. Paying up at QB is always tough in cash games, but Mahomes has the highest FanDuel optimal lineup rate at the position by a wide margin in Sim Labs.

Daniel Jones ($6,100 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel)

While Jackson is still a phenomenal option on FanDuel, he’s not quite as valuable at $8,700. Two quarterbacks edge him out in terms of projected Plus/Minus, with Jones taking the top spot overall.

Jones has repeatedly exceeded expectations for fantasy purposes this season. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of seven games, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +3.92 overall. He’s combining solid passing production with just enough rushing upside, resulting in more than 20 FanDuel points in four separate outings.

Jones provided solid value last week in a tough game vs. the Chargers, and now he gets a significantly easier matchup vs. the Titans. Indianapolis is favored by more than two touchdowns in that game, giving them a massive 31-point implied team total. That’s the top mark by a pretty comfortable margin, with the Ravens coming in second at 28.25.

There’s always some concern that this game gets so out of hand that Jones doesn’t have to do much in the second half, but hopefully, he’ll have accrued enough fantasy points while the team was building their lead that it doesn’t matter. Historically, big favorites tend to do well at the position because their teams score so many points: Favorites of at least two touchdowns have averaged 21.07 FanDuel points per game.

Now available: our NFL DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.

Top NFL DFS Tournament Options

Caleb Williams ($5,700 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel)

Williams has been a bit of a disappointment in his second professional season. While guys like Drake Maye, Bo Nix, and Jayden Daniels have all already had big NFL moments, Williams is still searching for his. He put together some solid fantasy performances to start the year under new head coach Ben Johnson, but he’s stumbled to just 5.68 and 12.8 DraftKings points in his last two outings.

The good news is that Williams gets an elite matchup Sunday vs. the Bengals. Their defense has been a disaster this year, just like it was for most of last season. They’re 30th in pass defense EPA, and they just allowed Justin Fields and the Jets to rack up 502 yards and 39 points last week.

The Bears are implied for a very healthy 26.75 points in this matchup, and most of their production figures to come through the air. They’re not going to have starting RB D’Andre Swift available for this matchup, so more of the offense than usual could fall on Williams’ shoulders.

Trevor Lawrence ($5,400 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel)

Sticking with No. 1 overall picks with something to prove, Lawrence also draws a fantastic matchup in Week 9. He’s taking on the Raiders, who are 27th in pass defense EPA this season. They’ve allowed the 12th-most fantasy points to opposing QBs, and the only reason that number isn’t higher is because most opponents don’t have to throw the ball against them late. The Jaguars are favored by just 2.5 points in this contest, so that doesn’t figure to be the case here.

Lawrence has also shown some improvement of late, at least for fantasy purposes. He rushed for 54 yards and two touchdowns in a huge upset win over the Chiefs in Week 5, finishing with a season-high 28.24 DraftKings points. He followed that up with 19.22 DraftKings points vs. the Seahawks and 17.64 DraftKings points vs. the Rams. Lawrence threw the ball at least 42 times in both contests, and he has plenty of upside with comparable volume vs. the Raiders.

Lawrence ultimately has the fourth-highest optimal lineup rate at the position on DraftKings, and he’s the No. 3 QB on FanDuel. He offers solid upside at a relatively low price tag across the industry.

Jordan Love ($6,100 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel)

Love put together a historic showing last week vs. the Steelers and former teammate/mentor Aaron Rodgers. At one point, he completed 20 straight passes in that contest, which is something that Rodgers never accomplished with the Packers. He ultimately finished with 360 yards and three touchdowns, resulting in 31.3 FanDuel points.

Love is in an interesting spot this week vs. the Panthers. Carolina’s pass defense has been improved this season, but it’s still not particularly intimidating. They’re 20th in pass defense EPA, so they’re definitely not a matchup you need to fear.

Vegas is giving the Packers plenty of love in this spot. They’re currently listed as 13.5-point favorites, and Green Bay’s 28.5 implied team total is the second-highest on the main slate.

Love ranks first at the position in projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel. He doesn’t grade out quite as well in Sim Labs as Dart, Williams, and Lawrence, but he has the highest ceiling projection of that group. He’s also projected for the least amount of ownership, making him an excellent tournament option.

Contrarian NFL DFS Tournament Options With Upside

Justin Herbert ($6,800 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel)

Herbert turned in one of his most impressive performances of the year in Week 8. He absolutely torched the Vikings, racking up 227 passing yards with three touchdowns on just 25 attempts. He added seven carries and 62 yards on the ground, bringing his fantasy total to 26.28 DraftKings points.

Herbert didn’t have to throw the ball much last week, and that might be the case once again in Week 9. He’s taking on the lowly Titans, who would be winless if not for one of the flukiest wins in NFL history over the Cardinals. They’re listed as 9.5-point road favorites, so it could be another week with minimal volume.

Still, Herbert has already proven that he can provide value in those scenarios, and the Chargers are still going to throw the ball on a weekly basis. They’re second in the league in Pass Rate Over Expectation, trailing only the Chiefs.

Herbert stands out as one of the most undervalued options at the position in Sim Labs. No QB has a larger gap between optimal lineup rate and projected ownership on DraftKings.

Joe Flacco ($5,600 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel)

Father Time may be undefeated, but he’s having a hard time putting away Flacco. The almost 41-year-old looked cooked at the start of the year, but a trade to the Bengals has rejuvenated him. He has a pair of stud receivers at his disposal, including arguably the best receiver in football in Ja’Marr Chase.

The Bengals have not been shy about letting Flacco air it out. He’s averaged 42 pass attempts per game in three starts with Cincinnati, and he’s peppered Chase with an absurd 42 targets over the past two weeks. As long as Flacco doesn’t get killed, it’s a pretty good game plan for a team with almost no running game to speak of.

The Bears have shown signs of improvement against the run of late, so it could be another week of heavy volume for the veteran QB. Flacco has posted a positive Plus/Minus in three straight games, and there’s no reason he can’t do it again on Sunday.

That said, keep an eye on the injury report before kickoff. Flacco is currently listed as questionable, though it seems like that’s just a formality. He’s fully expected to be under center vs. the Bears.

Drake Maye ($6,500 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel)

At this point, Maye appears to be the league’s next great quarterback. He might already be great for fantasy purposes. He’s fourth at the position in fantasy points per game, trailing only the MVP trio of Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson.

Maye has also gotten better as the season has progressed, which is not surprising for a young QB. He’s scored at least 20.2 FanDuel points in six of his past seven games, combining plenty of rushing upside with solid passing production.

Maye stands out as one of the better pure values at the position on FanDuel, checking in with a 78% Bargain Rating. He has a tough matchup vs. the Falcons, but Atlanta’s defense took a major step back last week vs. the Dolphins. They also haven’t been quite as impressive on the road as they have at home, so the matchup might not be as bad as it looks on paper.

Pictured: Patrick Mahomes
Photo Credit: Imagn Images