In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
Top NFL DFS Quarterback Picks in the FantasyLabs Models
On DraftKings, there are two quarterbacks near the top of the individual Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.
- Patrick Mahomes
- Geno Smith
We’ll discuss why these two are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other quarterbacks.
Top Model NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Patrick Mahomes ($8,300 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel): Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (48.5 total)
Patrick Mahomes didn’t put up quite the numbers we expected against a historically bad Denver defense last Thursday Night. It was still a solid performance, with him exceeding 300 yards through the air and throwing a touchdown. When rostering Mahomes in DFS, we’re looking for more than just a “solid” performance. He gets another soft matchup this week, so maybe he can finally break through.
The Los Angeles Chargers have allowed the second-most yards per attempt and third-most passing fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks.
Mahomes has gone against the Brandon Staley-led Chargers four times, averaging 308.5 passing yards per game and 11 passing touchdowns. There are no holes to poke in Mahomes’ outlook from a matchup perspective. The question is if it’s worth it to pay for him. Quarterback scores haven’t really separated like they have in years past.
There’s merit to getting a solid Pts/Sal performance from a cheaper quarterback in hopes that no one blows the position out of the water. However, if anyone is going to put up a score that you absolutely had to have at the quarterback position, it’s likely to be Mahomes. He’s the top option in our Tournament Model.
Geno Smith ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel): Seattle Seahawks (-8) vs. Arizona Cardinals (44.5 total)
Geno Smith eclipsed 300 yards through the air against Cincinnati last week but was unable to find the end zone. It’s been a bit of a down year thus far, with just five total touchdowns through five games and one game of multiple passing touchdowns.
This spot is as good as any, with Arizona hemorrhaging fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. They’re allowing the third-most yards per pass attempt and eighth-highest touchdown rate.
Smith also has great splits when he’s not pressured, which bodes well for him in this contest. Arizona has the lowest pressure rate in the league, and Smith has averaged 8.3 yards per pass attempt when not pressured.
In a thin week at the quarterback position, Smith marries a reasonable price tag with a plus matchup. He’s the top option in our Cash Game Model, as well as Chris Raybon and Sean Koerner’s Pro Model.
Other Notable NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Josh Allen ($8,200 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel): Buffalo Bills (-8.5) at New England Patriots (41.5 total)
A matchup with the New England Patriots would usually give pause, but not this year. New England has allowed the fifth-fewest DraftKings points to opposing quarterbacks, but their team has looked hapless as a whole. Contrary to what you’d think, Josh Allen has been having great games against New England for years now.
If you remove the game in 2021 that was heavily impacted by winds, Allen has averaged 277.75 passing yards with 12 passing touchdowns in his past four games against New England. He also averaged 33.75 rushing yards per game across the four contests. Allen is a strong play this weekend.
Justin Herbert ($8,000 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel): Los Angeles Chargers (+5.5) at Kansas City Chiefs (48.5 total)
Justin Herbert‘s 20.08 DraftKings points on Monday night were his lowest of the season. That has far more to do with how well he’s playing, as opposed to dogging his Monday performance. However, he did miss a few big throws that certainly would’ve boosted his final numbers.
The Chargers always seem to get up for these matchups in Kansas City, and we’ve actually seen Herbert play some of his best games in Arrowhead. In three career trips to Kansas City, Herbert has averaged 305.67 passing yards per game and ten passing touchdowns.
Lamar Jackson ($7,600 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel): Baltimore Ravens (-3) vs. Detroit Lions (42 total)
The Baltimore Ravens have taken more of a run-heavy approach this year, but they may be forced to rely on the pass more this weekend. Detroit boasts a daunting run defense while boasting a beatable secondary.
Lamar Jackson has had modest performances the past two weeks but averaged 28.07 DraftKings points over the first three weeks of the season. This Detroit pass defense has been mostly untested, facing Desmond Ridder, Jordan Love, Bryce Young, and Baker Mayfield in the past four weeks. Mayfield would’ve had a 90-yard touchdown to Mike Evans had the ball not been batted at the line.
It may not appear so on paper, but this is a sneaky ceiling spot for Jackson. He’s a very intriguing tournament option this weekend.
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My Favorite NFL DFS Quarterback Leverage Pick(s)
Jordan Love ($5,800 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel): Green Bay Packers (-1) at Denver Broncos (45 total)
Jordan Love looked immaculate in the first three weeks of the season, averaging 22.87 DraftKings points per game and leading the Packers to a 2-1 record.
It’s been a bumpy ride since then. Love salvaged a blowout against Detroit with a rushing touchdown to amass 19.64 DraftKings points. Following ten days off, the Green Bay offense laid an egg against an unimposing Raiders defense, where Love put up just 7.98 DraftKings points.
Green Bay is now coming off of the bye, and they get a matchup against the Broncos, who have allowed the second-most DraftKings points to opposing quarterbacks. Denver has the second-lowest pressure rate in the league and is allowing the most yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks.
Green Bay has another week to get fully healthy, and it appears that Love will have a full arsenal of weapons in Denver for the first time all season. Early ownership projections aren’t showing too much love for Love (pun intended). I’ll certainly have a lot of Jordan Love this weekend.
