The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL DFS product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for this week’s slate.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Justin Herbert vs. Washington Commanders – $6,100 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel
The Chargers took a tough road loss to the Giants last week, but they’re back in Los Angeles to host the Commanders in Week 5. They have the third-highest implied team total on Sunday’s 10-game DraftKings slate on our Vegas dashboard.
Herbert has the highest ceiling projections on both FanDuel and DraftKings in an evenly blended three-way aggregate of Carty, Raybon, and Koerner’s projections. We’ll rely heavily on that combined set of projections throughout this post.
In his four games this season, Herbert has thrown for 1,063 yards and seven touchdowns to go with just three interceptions. He did throw two picks in last week’s loss but hit Quentin Johnston on a touchdown to keep the day from being a fantasy disaster.
He should be set up to bounce back in a matchup against the Commanders, who allowed Michael Penix Jr. to go off against them last week. They have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to QBs this season, with multiple passing touchdowns allowed and at least 289 passing yards against them in each of the last three weeks.
The Chargers are dealing with some offensive line issues, which make Herbert high-risk and keep him from having the highest floor or median projections. However, he has enough potential to go off and post a huge game, giving him one of the highest ceilings of the week.
Top Value: Justin Fields vs. Dallas Cowboys – $5,600 on DraftKings, $7,700 on FanDuel
Especially on DraftKings, Field is an outstanding value as he faces the Cowboys’ struggling defense in Week 5. Fields has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings, and he still ranks in the top five on FanDuel, even though he’s priced up a bit more. On DraftKings, Fields has a 93% Bargain Rating, which is a comparative stat between the different DFS sites.
Fields missed a game with a concussion after the Jets’ Week 2 loss to the Bills. He returned in Week 4 and posted good numbers against the Dolphins on Monday Night Football. He finished with 226 passing yards and a touchdown and added 81 rushing yards and another score. In his two full games, he has produced 29.5 and 28.1 DraftKings points thanks to his impressive dual-threat numbers.
His rushing yards always give him a high ceiling, although his injury risk is also real. He and the Jets came up short on Monday and are 0-4 to start the year, but Fields has looked productive enough to be a value to build around.
Fields gets the best matchup on the board since the Cowboys have given up more fantasy points to opposing QBs than any team in the NFL. They have allowed at least 298 passing yards and 3+ passing touchdowns in each of the last three weeks. They’ve also given up plenty of rushing production to the position as well, setting Fields up in an elite spot Sunday.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Jonathan Taylor at Las Vegas Raiders – $8,000 on DraftKings, $9,500 on FanDuel
Taylor is the highest-priced running back on the main slate on both sites, and his Colts have the second-highest implied team total on the board. He has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections in the three-way aggregate this week on both sites.
Taylor was held mostly in check last week by the Rams in the Colts’ first loss of the season, managing just 76 rushing yards and 20 receiving yards on five catches. He was held out of the end zone in the final box score after he had a long touchdown taken off the board on a holding penalty from Adonai Mitchell, which didn’t really impact the play. The Rams defense is tough enough that his slower week isn’t much of a cause for concern.
He was one of the top running backs of the season before that game, after he scored three touchdowns in Week 3 and a touchdown in Week 2 while racking up over 200 rushing and receiving yards.
Taylor has shown he has a huge ceiling in the new-look offense with Daniel Jones, and the Colts will look to bounce back against the Raiders at home. Vegas’s run defense has been solid this season but is still giving up 74 rushing yards and 0.8 touchdowns to the position per game.
With a heavy workload coming his way at home, Taylor brings the top ceiling on the board if you can find a way to make his hefty salary work under your salary cap this week.
Top Value: Cam Skattebo at New Orleans Saints – $6,000 on DraftKings, $6,200 on FanDuel
On both FanDuel and DraftKings, Cam Skattebo has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all running backs on Sunday’s slate. He and the Giants have a great matchup against the Saints in New Orleans, and he should be ready to deliver big-time value.
With Tyrone Tracy Jr. (shoulder) out last week, Skattebo played 75% of snaps and had 25 carries along with a pair of targets that he converted to catches. He finished with 90 total yards and also took six of the team’s seven red zone carries by running backs. Skattebo didn’t get into the end zone, but he still was a solid play based on his volume.
Skattebo has at least 13 DraftKings points in each of the last three weeks, and he has shown he can take the heavy workload and turn it into good fantasy production. The Giants will likely lean heavily on the rookie again this week as they look to bring along rookie QB Jaxson Dart slowly.
The Saints have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to running backs this year and rank 15th in rushing yards allowed per game and 17th in yards before contact per attempt. Skattebo has looked powerful and productive since working into a larger role, and he should remain a good value play this week in what should be a favorable road matchup.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. Tampa Bay Rays – $7,100 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel
At the top of the wide receiver pool this week, JSN is just edged out for the top ceiling mark on both sites in our aggregated projections by Amon-Ra St. Brown. However, since he’s so much more affordable than Brown and the Lions could turn that game into a blowout, I think JSN is a slightly better pick to build around in Week 5.
Smith-Njigba is off to a great start to his third season in the NFL. He had 100 catches for 1,130 yards and six touchdowns in 2024, and he has been even better as a true No. 1 receiver this year after DK Metcalf was traded to the Steelers. In his four games, JSN has hauled in 26 of his 34 targets for 402 yards and a touchdown.
Last week was the first time this season that Smith-Njigba fell short of salary-based expectations with four catches for 79 yards against the Cardinals. He and the Seahawks still pulled out the win, though, and are 3-1 coming into a showdown matchup at home against the Buccaneers, who are also 3-1.
Tampa Bay has allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this year, but some of that is due to the game situation in the last few weeks. They did give up a touchdown to Nico Collins in Week 2 and Garrett Wilson in Week 3, before the Eagles got out to such a big lead that they were able to go run-heavy.
The Bucs and Seahawks could get into a high-scoring, back-and-forth contest on Sunday, and if Sam Darnold airs it out, he’ll likely look Smith-Njigba’s way early and often, making him a very nice pay-up option at receiver.
Top Value: Chris Olave vs. New York Giants – $5,200 on DraftKings, $6,100 on FanDuel
Olave and the Saints are still winless as they welcome in the Giants, but the fourth-year receiver from Ohio State has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all receivers on DraftKings and the second-highest on FanDuel in our three-way aggregate projections for the week.
Through the first four weeks of the season, Olave was tied for second in the NFL in targets behind only Puka Nacua. He had at least 10 targets in each of the first three weeks of the season before slowing down with just six targets in Week 4. He got into the end zone for the first time this year against the Bills in Week 4, though, and finished with three catches for 20 yards to go with his ill-advised interception on a trick play.
His best week of the year actually came in Week 3 when he had 10 catches for 57 yards against the Seahawks. His volume makes him worth a look at this salary since he brings both a high ceiling and a high floor. The Saints don’t have a ton of other playmakers, and they could be without tight end Juwan Johnson (ankle), who has missed practice and could be limited even if he does give it a go this Sunday.
If Johnson isn’t at 100%, there could be even more looks available for Olave against the Giants, who have allowed the second-most fantasy points in the NFL to wide receivers this season, giving up an average of 15 catches for 183.25 receiving yards and 1.0 touchdown per week to the position.
Since Olave seems lined up for another big workload, he’s a very solid value to consider at receiver despite his team’s overall struggles this season.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Trey McBride vs. Tennessee Titans – $5,800 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel
McBride and Brock Bowers remain the class of the tight end position, and this week, both are on the main slate in favorable matchups. McBride has been a little more consistent this season, and I’m ok paying up just a little bit more to include him where I’m paying up for a tight end. I trust Kyler Murray to get him the ball more than I trust Geno Smith to get the ball to Bowers.
In each of his four games this year, McBride has exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel. He has hauled in at least five receptions in each of his four games this year and has 40+ yards in each game. He has averaged 6.0 catches for 58.5 yards per game while drawing 8.8 targets per contest.
McBride had a season-high seven catches for 52 yards against the Seahawks last Thursday, and he should be very involved again this week against the Titans, especially with the running game uncertain after injuries to James Conner (foot) and Trey Benson (knee) the last two weeks. Emari Demercado and Michael Carter will split the work in the backfield, but Kyler could run more and also rely more on McBride’s ability to continue catching plenty of short passes to keep drives alive.
The Titans have allowed just one touchdown to tight ends this season but have allowed at least five catches by tight ends in three of their four games. His volume and PPR consistency make McBride a great play at tight end again this week.
Top Value: Zach Ertz at Los Angeles Chargers – $3,800 on DraftKings, $5,100 on FanDuel
Once you move past the top tier of Bowers, McBride, Tyler Warren, and Jake Ferguson, the best affordable value play in the aggregate projections this week looks to be Zach Ertz. Ertz has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of the options under $6,000 on FanDuel and under $4,500 on DraftKings.
Ertz could get Jayden Daniels back at quarterback this week, but he has worked well this season with both Daniels and Marcus Mariota. He had six catches for a season-high 64 yards in Daniels’ last start in Week 2 against the Packers, and he also caught a touchdown from Daniels in Week 1. Mariota did get him plenty of targets, but he wasn’t able to find the end zone like he did in Daniels’ starts.
Daniels isn’t the only injury issue for Washington this week. Receivers Terry McLaurin (quad) and Noah Brown (groin/knee) did not travel with the team and have been ruled out, which should leave more targets for Ertz to work with against the Chargers, who have given up two tight-end touchdowns and 34 yards per game to the position this season.
Pictured: Justin Herbert
Photo Credit: Imagn
