The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings, value ratings and projected ownership for the Week 4 NFL slate. We’ll use the Koerner Model as the foundation.
Top Ceiling: Josh Allen vs. Houston Texans – $7,800 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel
In a prime matchup for Week 4, facing the Houston Texans, Josh Allen and his dual-threat abilities have the potential to reach a 75th-percentile outcome. In a 43-21 shootout against the Washington Football Team in Week 3, Allen threw for 358 yards and four touchdowns, facing a defense that grades at the 18th -best defense according to PFF. Allen should have an easier matchup against a Texans defense that grades out at the 25th-worst defense overall and the 23rd-worst pass defense.
Stefon Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley all benefit if Allen reaches a ceiling outcome. Buffalo Bills wide receivers have a .40 correlation to Allen dating back to last season, but the concern lies in the lopsided total and Allen’s ability to run. As 17.5-point favorites, Buffalo may opt for a more run-heavy passing script, with Allen and running back Devin Singletary seeing a more prominent role to kill the clock.
Top Value: Justin Fields vs. Detroit Lions – $5,200 on DraftKings, $6,400 on FanDuel
Justin Fields’ first start in the NFL last week could be considered a letdown. In a 26-6 loss to the Cleveland Browns, Fields completed 30% of his passes, throwing for 68 yards in a tough matchup against the 10th-ranked DVOA Browns.
Fields comes at a discount against the Lions, who have the second-worst defensive DVOA, and in a “get-right” situation, should be a salary relief option given his dual-threat tendencies. In the Week 3 loss, Fields rushed for 12 yards on three attempts. Despite the low 41.5-point total, the matchup with the Lions features plenty of stacking and bring-back options, including Allen Robinson, Darnell Mooney, TJ Hockenson and D’Andre Swift.
Top Rostered: Jalen Hurts vs. Kansas City Chiefs – $6,900 on DraftKings, $7,900 on FanDuel
The Eagles and Chiefs Week 4 matchup looks to be one of the marquee games on the slate, and with a 54.5-point total, looks to have shootout potential. With a $6,900 price tag, Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts looks to be a popular choice to access the matchup, having the second-highest projected ownership behind josh Allen.
In a Week 3, 41-21 loss to the Dallas Cowboys, Hurts threw for 326 yards and two touchdowns. Indications lean toward Hurts having a similar outcome in Week 4, facing a Chiefs defense ranked last in DVOA. Rostering Hurts allows for spend-up options in Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill as viable bring-back, especially with using one of the Eagles receiving corps of Jalen Reagor and DeVonta Smith.
Top Ceiling: Derrick Henry vs. New York Jets- $8,800 on DraftKings, $10,200 on FanDuel
Even with the high price tag, Derrick Henry can reach a 75th-percentile outcome given the volume of carries and his role in the passing game. In a Week 3 25-16 win over the Indianapolis Colts, Henry rushed for 133 yards on 28 carries, catching three passes for 31 yards. Henry should have a similar output in Week 4, facing a New York Jets defense that grades as the 25th-worst rush defense.
Per the Trends tool, when Henry is above $9,000 on DraftKings, he typically has difficulty paying off the salary. Dating back to last season, Henry has a -3.76 Plus/Minus, averaging 18.40 actual DraftKings points.
Top Value: Najee Harris vs. Green Bay Packers – $6,800 on DraftKings, $8,200 on FanDuel
Najee Harris has proven to be an integral part of the Steelers offense. In a Week 3 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals, Harris rushed for 40 yards on 14 attempts and catching 14 passes for 102 yards.
On the field for 95% of the Steelers’ plays in Week 3 (According to the FantasyPros Snap Count Tool), Harris should easily reach fantasy relevance, purely on volume alone. In addition to the bulk of work, Harris also ranks ninth among running backs in “Green Zone” touches (rushing attempts inside the opponent’s 10-yard line), per RotoViz’s Stealing Signals Tool.
Facing a Packers defense that ranks 25th in rushing DVOA could give Harris an additional boost, especially paired with Davante Adams as a correlation piece.
Top Rostered: David Montgomery vs. Detroit Lions – $5,800 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel
This week Derrick Henry looks to be a popular option, even with the high price tag. At $3,000 cheaper, David Montgomery also looks to be a popular choice for rosters, facing a Lions defense that is one of the worst in the league, ranking 26th in rushing DVOA.
In a 26-6 loss to the Cleveland Browns, Montgomery, rushed for 34 yards on 10 carries. After a tough Week 3 matchup, Montgomery should have an easier time producing for the Bears. As the lead rusher in the Bears’ backfield, seeing 63% of the workload, Montgomery should also benefit if the Bears are ahead in the fourth quarter, currently as 3.5-point favorites.
Top Ceiling: Cooper Kupp vs. Arizona Cardinals – $7,800 on DraftKings, $8,600 on FanDuel
After three weeks, Cooper Kupp has emerged as one of the top wide receivers in the league and a favorite of Matthew Stafford. In the previous two games, Kupp has been targeted 23 times, catching 18 passes for 259 yards and four touchdowns, seeing a team-leading 35% target share.
The Week 4 matchup with the Arizona Cardinals has the highest total on the slate at 55 points. Kupp should continue to see plenty of targets, given the Rams’ pass-first play tendencies, deploying a 56%/44% ratio of pass-to-run plays. According to PFF, one downside to consider is the tough Cardinals defense, which grades out as the third-best pass coverage defense.
Top Value: Chester Rodgers vs. New York Jets – $3,300 on DraftKings, $5,100 on FanDuel
With Julio Jones and A.J. Brown listed as questionable ahead of a Week 4 matchup with the New York Jets, wide receiver Chester Rodgers should see an increase in production if the two star wide receivers sit out.
Rodgers is third on the Titans in target share, seeing 13% of looks from quarterback Ryan Tannehill. Rodgers was targeted twice in a Week 3 matchup against the Colts, catching one pass for six yards. With a price tag close to the minimum on DraftKings, Rodgers should reach value as the lead in the Titans receiving corps if injuries hold out Brown and Jones.
Top Rostered: Davante Adams vs. Pittsburgh Steelers – $7,900 on DraftKings, $8,100 on FanDuel
Davante Adams should be a popular choice for rosters this week, currently projected for 23.9% ownership. The preferred target for quarterback Aaron Rodgers, Adams leads the Packers with a 37% target share, seeing 18 targets, catching 12 passes for 132 yards and one touchdown in a Week 3 30-28 win over the San Francisco 49ers.
According to Football Outsiders, the Steelers rank 23rd in pass DVOA, which looks appealing for Adams, especially given his high target share in the red zone, seeing 25% of the targets (According to AddMoreFunds).
Top Ceiling: Travis Kelce vs. Philadelphia Eagles – $8,100 on DraftKings, $8,200 on FanDuel
Travis Kelce should always be a candidate to reach a 75th-percentile outcome. The tight end is tied for the lead in target share along with his counterpart Tyreek Hill in the Chiefs receiving corps. Kelce saw 11 targets in a Week 3 30-24 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers, catching seven passes for 104 yards.
Virtually matchup-proof, Kelce and the Chiefs face an Eagles defense that grades out as the 26th ranked defense according to PFF, and in a matchup with a 54.5-point total, the matchup screams shootout potential, especially with Patrick Mahomes throwing the ball more than 30 times in every game this season.
Top Value: George Kittle vs. Seattle Seahawks – $5,900 on DraftKings, $6,700 on FanDuel
George Kittle looks to be a spend-down option this week against the Seattle Seahawks. However, keep an eye on his status this week; with reports surfacing, he may be questionable to play.
Kittle is an integral part of the 49ers offense, seeing 19% of the target share, only behind wide receiver Deebo Samuel. Kittle was targeted nine times in a Week 3 loss to the Packers, catching seven passes for 92 yards.
Seattle ranks 27th in pass DVOA, and in a high-powered matchup with a 52-point total, Kittle should easily be a top choice for stacking configurations with Jimmy Garoppolo, Russell Wilson, or the Seahawks concentrated receiving corps of Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf.
Top Rostered: Noah Fant vs. Baltimore Ravens – $4,300 on DraftKings, $5,700 on FanDuel
Given the high opportunity and volume from Kittle, the 49ers’ tight end should be one of the more popular choices. However, at a discounted price tag of $4,300, Noah Fant should appear in plenty of lineups this week, currently seeing 12.6% projected ownership. With an 18% target share, Fant is second on the Broncos, only behind wide receiver Courtland Sutton. Seeing three targets in a Week 3 26-0 win over the New York Jets, Fant caught two passes for 15 yards.
However, with the Broncos currently a 1.5-point underdog, expect a close game against a Ravens’ defense that grades as 23rd ranked offense according to PFF, which lends itself to a more pass-heavy play-calling script for Teddy Bridgewater.