The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL DFS product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for this week’s slate.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by the award-winning expert ranker, Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace.
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Josh Allen vs. Los Angeles Chargers – $8,000 on DraftKings, $9,100 on FanDuel
Week 3’s main Sunday slate features 13 games on both DraftKings and FanDuel for the second straight week. Nine games start at 1:00 p.m. ET, with four in the late window. According to our Vegas dashboard, the Bills have the highest implied team total on the board as they host the 0-2 Chargers. After his spectacular start, Josh Allen has the highest ceiling and median projections in both sets of projections on both sites.
Allen has started the season with back-to-back monster games against the Texans and Lions. He racked up 38.7 DraftKings points with two rushing touchdowns and two passing touchdowns in Houston, and he was even better in last Thursday’s home opener, scoring 40.8 DraftKings points with three passing touchdowns and two more rushing scores.
Even the loss of top receiver DJ Moore (shoulder) last week didn’t slow him down. Moore could miss this week, although the injury is not considered long-term. Allen showed a strong enough connection with his other receivers to remain a good play if you have the salary to pay up at quarterback.
Allen’s rushing scores make him almost untouchable as the top pay-up play, especially at home against the 0-2 Chargers, who have lost to Jacoby Brissett’s Cardinals and Kirk Cousins’ Raiders, both at home. They’ll have to travel east to face Allen and the Bills, giving Allen the potential for another monster game.
Top Value: Tyler Shough vs. Las Vegas Raiders – $5,400 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel
On both DraftKings and FanDuel, Tyler Shough has the highest Plus/Minus projection among quarterbacks in THE BLITZ projections. He is also the top quarterback value on DraftKings in the FantasyLabs projections.
Shough and the Saints will play their first game at the Superdome this season against the Raiders. He led New Orleans to a road win over Baltimore last week after a one-point overtime loss to the Lions in Detroit in Week 1.
He scored the game-winning touchdown against the Ravens on a one-yard rush and threw a touchdown pass, finishing with 22.4 DraftKings points. In Week 1, with the extra time in overtime, he finished with an even better 29.2 DraftKings points against the Lions.
The Saints typically play aggressively under coach Kellen Moore, and Shough gets plenty of opportunities to attack downfield. He has attempted 90 passes in two games, the second most in the NFL behind only C.J. Stroud. Shough has been more efficient, though, and leads the league in completions through two weeks.
The Saints will face the 2-0 Raiders, who have also gotten off to a surprisingly strong start. However, the Raiders defense has faced only the Dolphins’ Malik Willis and a struggling Justin Herbert, so it will face a much tougher test against Shough and the up-tempo Saints.
Shough is still very affordable on DraftKings, and the second-year QB has looked strong early this season.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Jahmyr Gibbs vs. New York Jets – $8,800 on DraftKings, $9,200 on FanDuel
In both sets of projections on DraftKings and FanDuel, Jahmyr Gibbs has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections among running backs for Week 3. Gibbs has gotten off to a fast start, and the Lions will be back in the Motor City to try to ground the Jets.
Even though Gibbs is extremely expensive, he has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of the first two weeks as the focal point of the Lions’ high-scoring offense. He ran for 156 yards and a pair of scores against the Saints in Week 1. In Week 2, he showed off his receiving upside, catching 6 of 8 targets for 61 yards and a touchdown in a pass-heavy game against the Bills.
With David Montgomery now playing for the Texans, Gibbs is carrying a heavy workload in the Lions offense, making him nearly matchup-proof as an elite play.
He’ll face the Jets, who have been strong against the run this season but have benefited from favorable matchups against the Packers’ and Titans’ ground games.
Gibbs has proven he can carry the load. With the Lions defense giving up a lot of points so far this season, the offense needs to control the clock and keep scoring. Giving Gibbs all the carries he can handle should help Detroit achieve both goals this week.
Top Value: Aaron Jones Sr. at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $5,900 on DraftKings, $6,200 on FanDuel
In both sets of projections, Aaron Jones Sr. has a strong Plus/Minus projection for the second straight week. In an evenly weighted 50/50 aggregate of Koerner’s and Carty’s projections, Jones has the third-highest Plus/Minus projection among running backs on FanDuel and the second-highest on DraftKings among options under $6,500.
The Vikings are 2-0 after divisional wins over the Packers and Bears, and they’ll head to Florida this week to take on the Bucs. Kyler Murray is expected to return from his concussion, but Jordan Mason (thumb) will be on IR for at least two more weeks. Jones is dealing with an injury of his own, but he was limited in Thursday’s practice and seems to be trending toward playing on Sunday.
If he plays, he’ll be a good value after an impressive Week 2 showing. The veteran exceeded salary-based expectations for the second straight week, piling up 105 rushing yards on 23 carries in a touchdown-free game played in bad weather in Chicago. In Week 1, he had 12 carries for 40 yards while sharing work with Mason but still had a good fantasy day because he found the end zone.
The Vikings don’t have many options behind Jones. DeeJay Dallas (toe) was also limited in practice, and rookie Demond Claiborne has logged only one catch and no carries through the first two weeks. Minnesota added Jarret Patterson to the practice squad, where Jerome Ford is also an option. If Jones can’t play, Claiborne would be an interesting flier, but if Jones is available, he should carry the load again as he did last week.
The Bucs are usually pretty solid against running backs, but they allowed an RB touchdown in Week 1 to Chase Brown, who had 98 total yards. Last week, they held the Browns’ running backs in check, but if Murray can keep the offense rolling, Jones should be a good value as long as he isn’t limited by injury.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. New York Jets – $7,900 on DraftKings, $9,000 on FanDuel
The Lions have the fifth-highest implied team total on the main slate, and Amon-Ra St. Brown leads all wide receivers in the 50/50 aggregate projections on both sites. He has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel, along with the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position.
St. Brown scored an impressive 28.7 DraftKings points in the season opener in Detroit, but he was even better on the road last Thursday, posting 38.2 DraftKings points in the team’s loss to the Bills. He has already caught 19 of 27 targets for 209 yards and four touchdowns in those two games. He scored twice in each and has proven to be the Lions’ most reliable receiver in the red zone and everywhere else on the field.
The Lions will hope to play from ahead against the Jets rather than having to rally as they did last week. Even with a lead, though, St. Brown gets plenty of targets and chances to make plays. His volume makes him an elite option in any matchup, giving him both a high floor and a high ceiling.
The Jets defense has allowed a wide receiver touchdown in each of its first two games and will face its toughest test of the season against the high-scoring Lions. Detroit’s defense has struggled, forcing the offense to put up high point totals and rely heavily on St. Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs as its go-to playmakers and fantasy studs.
Top Value: Adonai Mitchell at Detroit Lions – $4,300 on DraftKings, $5,400 on FanDuel
On the other side of that matchup in Detroit, Adonai Mitchell should be in a good position to take advantage of the Lions’ struggling secondary as a value play at receiver. He has a top-five Plus/Minus projection on DraftKings and the highest Plus/Minus projection among receivers under $7,000 on FanDuel.
Since entering the NFL, Mitchell has offered intriguing upside because of his big-play ability as a deep threat. He was a key return in the Sauce Gardner trade last season and showed more potential after joining the Jets, though he struggled with consistency.
With the Jets offense in a much better spot this season under Geno Smith, Mitchell has been solid through two weeks. He has caught 9 of 15 targets for 123 yards, leading the team with 12 targets in last week’s loss to the Packers.
He was limited in practice this week by a finger issue, but as long as he’s ready to go on Sunday, he should be involved enough to offer solid value. Even without a big-play touchdown, Mitchell scored 9.0 and 12.3 DraftKings points in Weeks 1 and 2, respectively, exceeding salary-based expectations on FanDuel in both matchups as well.
The Lions have allowed a wide receiver touchdown in each of their two games. Chris Olave and Devaughn Vele both had strong games against Detroit in Week 1, while Josh Palmer and Keon Coleman put up good numbers in Week 2.
Garrett Wilson is also a strong play at his salary, but Mitchell offers better value potential and could be a week-winner if he gets loose for a big play or two.
Other WR values that stand out in our DraftKings models include Ryan Flournoy of the Cowboys, Vele of the Saints, and Xavier Worthy of the Chiefs. On FanDuel, Josh Downs of the Colts, Rashod Bateman of the Ravens, and Emeka Egbuka of the Bucs have especially strong Plus/Minus projections.
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Trey McBride at San Francisco 49ers – $6,700 on DraftKings, $7,300 on FanDuel
Once again atop our tight end projections, Trey McBride brings a high ceiling into Sunday’s matchup against the 49ers. He has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at the position this week and continues to deliver elite production almost every week.
McBride has drawn double-digit targets in both games this season. He caught 9 of 13 targets for 95 yards in Week 1, then 8 of 10 for 41 yards in Week 2. He scored a touchdown in each game, earning 24.5 and 18.1 DraftKings points against the Chargers and Seahawks, respectively.
That volume gives McBride both a high ceiling and a high floor, and he has scored a touchdown in each of his last three games against the 49ers. He caught 10 passes for 115 yards against them last November in their most recent meeting and will look to post another big game in a divisional matchup he has dominated.
Top Value: Dalton Schultz at Indianapolis Colts – $4,200 on DraftKings, $5,800 on FanDuel
Even though Dalton Schultz’s DraftKings salary jumped $1,000 this week, he still has the highest Plus/Minus projection among tight ends in the aggregate projections. He’s also in the top five on FanDuel, though he offers less value under that site’s salary structure.
Schultz went off last week with Nico Collins (hamstring) out, racking up 140 yards on 12 catches from 14 targets. He didn’t get into the end zone, as the Texans failed to score a touchdown against the Bengals, but his PPR production still made him a key piece of winning lineups.
With Collins still out and Jayden Higgins (knee) lost for the season, Schultz should continue to get plenty of targets in a favorable matchup against the Colts. Indy’s defense allowed tight ends 15 catches for 167 yards and a touchdown in its first two games, including nine catches for 101 yards and a score by Travis Kelce last Monday night. Schultz will look to take advantage of that matchup and his heavy workload on Sunday in Indy.
If you need a cheaper tight end on FanDuel or want a less popular value play, Mark Andrews and Hunter Henry are alternatives to consider. Both veterans will likely continue to play without their teams’ top wide receivers.
Pictured: Amon-Ra St. Brown
Photo Credit: Imagn
