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Raybon’s Week 3 NFL DFS Breakdown: In Dak We Trust

Dak-Prescott-Dallas-Cowboys-QB

This article is a data-driven deep dive on strategic decision-making and roster construction for DFS cash games and tournaments. It relies heavily upon FantasyLabs’ large suite of analytical DFS tools, as well as advanced metrics and film study. First, I walk through narrowing down the player pool at each position. Then, I lay out how to choose the highest-floor lineup combinations for cash games. Finally, I go game-by-game to present the biggest edges (stacks, pivots, leverage opportunities, etc.) in each.

Week 3 shmoney time.

Quarterback

  • Dak Prescott, Cowboys ($6,500 DK, $7,500 FD) at MIA

Dak Prescott, Kyler Murray, and Jameis Winston all rate is Tier 1 QBs on DraftKings with a Plus/Minus of 4 or more (58% Consistency, +2.0 Plus/Minus since 2018), but Dak gets the nod due to Dallas’ slate-high implied total of 34 and his performance as a home favorite, a spot which Dak is averaging 95% FD/81% Consistency and a +5.8 FD/+5.7 average Plus/Minus since his career began in 2016.

He faces a Miami defense getting demolished for a league-high 11.9 yards per pass attempt. The Dolphins have left the aquarium; all that remains is tank. I would love to get Patrick Mahomes in here, but Dak makes lineups work a lot better given the value the slat presents.

For more on QBs, check out Matthew Freedman’s NFL Week 3 Fantasy QB Breakdown.

Running Back

This article is a data-driven deep dive on strategic decision-making and roster construction for DFS cash games and tournaments. It relies heavily upon FantasyLabs’ large suite of analytical DFS tools, as well as advanced metrics and film study. First, I walk through narrowing down the player pool at each position. Then, I lay out how to choose the highest-floor lineup combinations for cash games. Finally, I go game-by-game to present the biggest edges (stacks, pivots, leverage opportunities, etc.) in each.

Week 3 shmoney time.

Quarterback

  • Dak Prescott, Cowboys ($6,500 DK, $7,500 FD) at MIA

Dak Prescott, Kyler Murray, and Jameis Winston all rate is Tier 1 QBs on DraftKings with a Plus/Minus of 4 or more (58% Consistency, +2.0 Plus/Minus since 2018), but Dak gets the nod due to Dallas’ slate-high implied total of 34 and his performance as a home favorite, a spot which Dak is averaging 95% FD/81% Consistency and a +5.8 FD/+5.7 average Plus/Minus since his career began in 2016.

He faces a Miami defense getting demolished for a league-high 11.9 yards per pass attempt. The Dolphins have left the aquarium; all that remains is tank. I would love to get Patrick Mahomes in here, but Dak makes lineups work a lot better given the value the slat presents.

For more on QBs, check out Matthew Freedman’s NFL Week 3 Fantasy QB Breakdown.

Running Back