Week 18 NFL DFS RB Breakdown: Top Cash Game and Tournament Picks

Nailing the running back spots is essential for constructing a solid DFS lineup. It’s a bit easier to project than the receivers, where touchdowns and big plays are going to result in weekly variance. The workloads for the top running backs are much more stable, so they’re typically more consistent fantasy producers.

However, that also results in some of the heaviest chalk you’ll see across the industry. How do you handle those players each week?

In this piece, I highlight running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.

As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

Top NFL DFS Cash Game Options

Bijan Robinson ($8,700 DraftKings, $9,600 FanDuel)

Finding value on this slate is not going to be an issue. There are plenty of appealing, cheap options at basically every position across the board, so paying up for a couple of studs is much easier than usual.

It’s hard not to view Robinson as one of the biggest studs in fantasy at the moment. He’s turned in three straight big performances, racking up 42.9 DraftKings points vs. the Rams, 29.8 vs. the Cardinals, and 30.5 vs. the Buccaneers. He’s up to No. 2 at the position in PPR points per game for the year, trailing only Christian McCaffrey.

Robinson’s rushing workload has left a bit to be desired all season. He continues to lose plenty of work to Tyler Allgeier, especially around the goal line. Both players have handled 48% of the team’s carries from inside the five-yard line this season, and Allgeier has siphoned off eight rushing scores.

However, Robinson has made up for it with his work in the passing game of late. Kirk Cousins has proven much more willing to check the ball down to Robinson as the team’s starting QB. His target share has increased from 27% to 32% to 37% across his past three games, and he’s racked up 30 total targets over that time frame. That kind of workload is more what you’d expect for a WR1 for fantasy purposes.

Bijan is also capable of ripping off huge plays every time he touches the ball. He had a 93-yard run last week vs. the Rams, and he’s averaged an elite 5.3 yards per carry for the year.

The Falcons are listed as 3.5-point home favorites vs. the Saints, so it should be a solid game script for him as well. He has the top median and ceiling projections at the position, and he should be one of the highest-owned players on the slate.

Jahmyr Gibbs ($8,000 DraftKings, $9,300 FanDuel)

Gibbs also deserves some stud consideration on DraftKings. His $8,000 salary comes with a 92% Bargain Rating, and he ranks fourth in projected Plus/Minus. He grades out as a slightly better pure value than Robinson, and both players lead the position with 10 Pro Trends.

The big question is how much fight the Lions will show in Week 18. They’ve been officially eliminated from playoff contention, which is a huge shock for a team that was the No. 1 seed in the NFC last year. Still, giving up is not in Dan Campbell’s DNA. He stated that the team will compete on Sunday and that most of their key players will be in the lineup.

Gibbs has taken over as the clear RB1 in Detroit’s backfield since Week 11. He’s handled 75% of the snaps and 65% of the designed rushing attempts over that time frame, with David Montgomery shifting into a reserve role. Gibbs has also racked up an elite 23% target share over that time frame, and he’s put together some monster performances. He has two No. 1 finishes at the position over his past seven games, and he has two other top 12 finishes during that stretch.

This game between the Lions and Bears should be one of the best of the day for fantasy purposes. It features a 50.5-point total and a three-point spread, which suggests plenty of scoring opportunities on both sides.

Jaylen Wright ($4,300 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel)

The Dolphins looked dead at the midway point this season, sitting at just 2-7 through their first nine games. However, the team has gone 5-3 over their last eight outings, and they picked up a win over the Buccaneers in Week 17. Their in-state rivals still had everything to play for in that contest, while the Dolphins were starting a Day Three rookie in Quinn Ewers.

De’Von Achane has been the Dolphins’ offensive focal point all season. He’s logged a 75% snap share, 62% carry share, and 20% target share for the year, and he ranks fifth at the position in PPR points per game.

However, Achane appears on track to get a much-deserved break in Week 18. He’s listed as doubtful for the team’s season finale vs. the Patriots, and his absence would open up more opportunities for Wright and Ollie Gordon.

While Gordon has been the No. 2 back for the Dolphins for most of the year, Wright has seized control of that job recently. He saw 62% of the team’s carries compared to just 13% for Gordon when Achane went down with an injury in Week 14. Wright responded with 107 yards and a touchdown, and he caught his only target.

Wright followed that up with a score in Week 16, and he had five carries for 56 yards last week vs. the Buccaneers. Ultimately, he’s averaged 4.6 yards per attempt for the season, and he should get a solid opportunity to carry the rock vs. New England. The Dolphins are sizable 11.5-point underdogs – which is never ideal for a running back – but Wright is simply too cheap for his projected workload in this contest.

Now available: our NFL DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.

Top NFL DFS Tournament Options

Jaydon Blue ($4,300 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel)

Blue is a potential cash game option on this slate, leading all running backs in projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel. That said, there is definitely some risk with him as well. We’ve seen very little of him this season, and what we have seen hasn’t been very inspiring. He’s averaged just 3.0 yards per attempt on 22 carries, while he’s caught just one pass for five yards.

However, Blue will get his opportunity to shine in the final game of the year. The team has already ruled out Javonte Williams and Malik Davis, while even Phil Mafah is questionable. It leaves Blue with minimal competition for touches in a very good offense.

The Giants also represent a tremendous matchup. No team has been worse in terms of rush defense EPA, and they’ve surrendered the fourth-most PPR points per game to opposing runners. As long as Blue gets the majority of the attempts in this backfield, he should be able to find success.

Ashton Jeanty ($6,400 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel)

The Raiders are trying to tank their way to the No. 1 overall pick, and they’re doing a damn good job. They were humiliated at home by the Giants last week, and they’ve lost nine straight games since their Week 8 bye. They’re listed as 5.5-point home underdogs this week vs. Chris Oladokun and the Chiefs, which is a testament to how big a dumpster fire this situation has become.

While the Raiders have shut down guys like Maxx Crosby and Geno Smith in recent weeks, they’ve shown zero signs of slowing down the usage for their rookie running back. Jeanty still played on 83% of the team’s offensive snaps last week, and he handled 89% of the designed rushing attempts. He’s had an 88% rushing share since Week 12, so if anything, his usage is only increasing.

Jeanty has also seen a bump in pass-catching opportunities over that stretch. He’s taken a slight step back in that department over the past two weeks, but he still has an 18% target share from Week 10 on. That’s up there with the best running backs in fantasy over that time frame.

Jeanty ultimately has the fourth-highest DraftKings’ optimal lineup rate at the position in Sim Labs, trailing only Robinson, Gibbs, and Blue. He also ranks third at the position in projected Plus/Minus and has the third-highest ceiling projection.

Tyrone Tracy ($5,500 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel)

Could the Giants end the year on a two-game win streak? It’s at least a possibility. They’re listed as 3.5-point home underdogs this week vs. the Cowboys in a game that is expected to feature plenty of scoring. The total for this contest sits at 49.5 points, which is the second-highest mark this week.

Tracy has handled most of the RB responsibilities for the Giants down the stretch. He’s handled 69% of the snaps and 58% of the carries over their past three games, and he’s posted a 10% target share as a receiver. Devin Singletary has annoyingly siphoned away some work around the goal line – along with QB Jaxson Dart – but Tracy has still posted solid utilization over that time frame.

Tracy has the potential to do some damage in this matchup. The Cowboys have allowed the seventh-most PPR points per game to the position, giving Tracy a respectable +1.3 Opponent Plus/Minus. He erupted for 24.7 DraftKings points vs. the Commanders three games ago, and he has a similar ceiling vs. Dallas.

Contrarian NFL DFS Tournament Options With Upside

Chase Brown ($7,600 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel)

It’s hard to beat the type of production that Brown has provided down the stretch. Since Week 8, Brown has finished as the weekly RB5, RB6, RB12, RB13, RB9, RB6, RB13, RB1, and RB3 in PPR scoring. That’s a pretty elite combination of floor and ceiling.

Brown tallied his first 100-yard rushing game in a month last week vs. the Cardinals, and he added two touchdowns, three catches, and 40 receiving yards. His matchup this week vs. the Browns isn’t quite as friendly, but the Browns have taken a step back against the run as the year has progressed. They also haven’t been nearly as good on the road as they have been at home, giving Brown an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.2 on DraftKings.

The Bengals are favored by more than a touchdown in this contest, and Brown has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.46 when favored by at least a touchdown (per the Trends tool). He’s gone for at least 29.7 DraftKings points in two of his past three games in that split, so he has plenty of upside vs. the Browns.

Brown stands out as one of the most undervalued tournament options at the position in Sim Labs. He has the sixth-best optimal lineup rate, yet he’s projected for just 8.4% ownership on DraftKings. Only Robinson and Blue have larger discrepancies, and both of those guys are expected to be a bit chalkier.

Jordan Mason ($5,200 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel)

Mason is the prototypical between-the-tackles grinder, and he’s served as the 1B to Aaron Jones’ 1A for most of the year. However, Jones has already been ruled out for this contest, which should allow Mason to move into a bell-cow-type role.

When Mason has gotten opportunities throughout his career, he’s typically been able to take advantage. He’s had at least 16 carries in six career games, and he’s gone for 100+ rushing yards in four of them. Most of his success came with the 49ers, but he did have 16 carries, 116 yards, and two touchdowns for the Vikings earlier this season in a game where Jones was sidelined.

The Vikings are also listed as 9.5-point favorites against a Packers squad with nothing to play for in Week 18. They’re going to rest a bunch of key players, so Mason should find himself in a pretty strong game script. Derrick Henry torched this defense for 26 carries, 216 yards, and four touchdowns last week, making Mason a really appealing value target for tournaments.

R.J. Harvey ($6,800 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel)

Harvey has taken over as the Broncos’ top RB following the injury to JK Dobbins, and he has provided strong fantasy production in that role. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five straight games, and he’s had at least 21.2 DraftKings points in three of them.

The Broncos need a win in Week 18 to secure the No. 1 seed in the AFC, and they’ll face a Chargers squad that is resting key personnel. It makes them a much friendlier matchup than they usually would be, and the Broncos are listed as massive 13.5-point home favorites. Harvey hasn’t exactly been a usage monster for the Broncos since taking over as their starter, but he should be locked into plenty of carries against a team with nothing to play for.

Dylan Sampson ($5,200 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel)

Sampson did not get nearly the level of rushing workload we were hoping for in Week 17. He was on the field for just 36% of the team’s offensive snaps, and he handled just 50% of their designed rushing attempts. It resulted in just 11 carries for 27 yards vs. the Steelers, which didn’t help anyone.

However, Sampson did have a nice role in the passing attack. He was targeted on 38% of his routes run, and he finished with a 14% target share overall. He had a 15% target share in his previous outing, so he’s carved out a decent role for himself in that department.

This week’s matchup vs. the Bengals is also significantly friendlier. Their defense has been abominable for most of the year, particularly against the run. They’re 29th in rush defense EPA, and they’ve allowed the most PPR points per game to opposing running backs. Sampson is projected for virtually no ownership this week, so he has some appeal as a contrarian option.

Pictured: Ashton Jeanty
Photo Credit: Imagn