The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL DFS product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for this week’s slate.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Josh Allen at Miami Dolphins – $7,000 on DraftKings, $9,200 on FanDuel
Using an evenly blended three-way aggregate of Carty, Raybon, and Koerner’s projections, Josh Allen has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of the 20 starting quarterbacks on Sunday’s 10-game main slate. He also has a 97% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, where he has the highest Plus/Minus projection of all quarterbacks as well.
Allen got his team a huge win last week at home in a tough matchup against the Chiefs. This week’s matchup is much softer as he heads to Miami to face the Dolphins in a divisional matchup. In that matchup, the Bills also have the highest implied team total of the afternoon, according to our Vegas Dashboard.
Allen exceeded salary-based expectations last week against Kansas City, throwing for 273 yards, his highest total since Week 1, and he was extremely efficient, connecting on 23 of his 26 pass attempts. He threw for a touchdown and ran for two more scores.
The Dolphins have allowed 15 passing touchdowns and four rushing touchdowns to QBs in their nine games this season, and Lamar Jackson had four passing scores against them last week in his return from an injury. They also traded away pieces from their defense at the trade deadline, which could make them even more beatable this week.
His rushing potential always gives him a high ceiling, and in such a smash spot, he is a good option if you are looking to pay up for your QB this week.
Top Value: J.J. McCarthy vs. Baltimore Ravens – $4,900 on DraftKings, $7,100 on FanDuel
McCarthy has the second-highest Plus/Minus projection of all quarterbacks on Sunday’s slate, after exceeding salary-based expectations in his return to the field last week and leading his Vikings to a big win over the Lions.
After missing five games, McCarthy returned in Week 9 with 143 passing yards, two passing touchdowns, an interception, a rushing touchdown, and 12 rushing yards. His final numbers are very similar to what he posted in Week 1 against the Bears, when he finished with 158 passing yards, two passing touchdowns, an interception, a rushing touchdown, and 25 rushing yards.
Even though his yardage totals haven’t been huge, he has excellent playmakers to work with and has the potential for big plays with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson on the receiving end of most of his passes. Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell has consistently made whoever the quarterback is in his system fantasy-relevant, and McCarthy’s rushing touchdowns and production give his ceiling a big boost in Sunday’s matchup against the Ravens.
Baltimore has allowed 260+ passing yards in four of the last five weeks, although they have looked better overall in the two weeks after their bye week. They have still allowed the eighth-most DraftKings points per game to the position, though, and with a salary so affordable, McCarthy is a strong place to start your lineups for Week 10.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Christian McCaffrey vs. Los Angeles Rams – $9,000 on DraftKings, $9,700 on FanDuel
Even though Christian McCaffrey has the highest salary of any running back this week, he actually has strong value projections since he brings by far the highest ceiling, median, and floor projection in the aggregate projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He has the highest Plus/Minus projection of all running backs on FanDuel and the third-highest on DraftKings.
After being held in check by Houston in Week 8, McCaffrey bounced back with 37.3 DraftKings points last week against the Giants. He ran for 106 yards and a touchdown while adding five catches for 67 yards and another score as a receiver.
He has over 22 DraftKings points in eight of his nine games this season and posted over 36 DraftKings points in two of his last three matchups. He is up to eight total touchdowns on the season, and his work as a pass-catcher out of the backfield gives him both a high ceiling and a high floor as the focal point of San Francisco’s offense.
This week against the Rams, he’s in a tougher matchup, but he had a solid game against them in Week 5 since he caught eight passes for 82 yards and a touchdown to go with his 57 rushing yards. That score is the only running back touchdown the Rams have given up all season, which is why they’ve allowed the fewest fantasy points to the position in the NFL.
Even in this less-than-ideal matchup, CMC gets enough work to be a great pay-up play if you have the salary cap space available to absorb his hefty salary. An alternative high-priced play is James Cook III, who would have a great matchup against the Dolphins if he can play through his injury.
Top Value: Rico Dowdle vs. New Orleans Saints – $6,300 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel
After regaining the majority of the work in the Panthers’ backfield, Dowdle has a great matchup this week against the Saints. While FanDuel has raised his salary, he’s still very affordable on DraftKings, where he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus and a 97% Bargain Rating.
Dowdle is coming off a big game against the Packers last week, as he helped his team pull off the upset with 130 rushing yards, two touchdowns, and 31.1 DraftKings points. He had posted back-to-back disappointing weeks before coach Dave Canales opted to go back with him as the primary running back over Chuba Hubbard.
Hubbard missed two games earlier this season, and Dowdle went off for 206 rushing yards and 35.4 DraftKings points against the Dolphins, followed by 183 rushing yards and 36.9 DraftKings points the next week against his former team, the Cowboys.
With those three massive games in the last five weeks, Dowdle has definitely shown his upside at this salary on DraftKings. He gets a good divisional matchup against the Saints this week, and New Orleans has allowed nine running back touchdowns in nine games, with an average of 109.8 rushing yards and 24.8 receiving yards for running backs against them.
If the Panthers can open up an early lead and play from ahead, Dowdle should be in a smash spot in the Big Easy.
If you need a bargain on FanDuel, Emari Demercado has a 72% Bargain Rating, and at only $4,900 on FanDuel, his salary is extremely low for a player expected to be very involved in Week 10. On DraftKings, Kenneth Walker III has the highest Plus/Minus projection of running backs under $6,000.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. Arizona Cardinals – $8,600 on DraftKings, $9,500 on FanDuel
Smith-Njigba has been outstanding this season for the surging Seahawks, and he has the highest median and ceiling projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel this week in another divisional matchup against the Cardinals. JSN’s consistency and elite production have vaulted him into the conversation for the best fantasy receiver in the NFL.
Last week on Sunday Night Football, the Seahawks jumped out to an early lead against the Commanders and cruised to a win, but JSN had 129 yards on eight catches, mostly in the first half. He exceeded salary-based expectations for the fourth week in a row and the seventh time in his eight games this season.
In each of the last four games, Smith-Njigba has caught exactly eight passes, racking up over 120 yards in each of those four contests. He has 58 catches on the season for 948 yards and four touchdowns and will likely go over 1,000 yards this week with still almost half the regular season remaining.
His impressive consistency and very high ceiling make him a premium pay-up option this week against Arizona, which ranks in the middle of the pack against the pass this season. While they’ve given up only four wide receiver touchdowns this season, two of those scores came in the last three weeks, and last week, CeeDee Lamb had seven catches for 85 yards on Monday Night Football against them.
JSN rides his hot streak into this matchup looking for another big game, and if you are paying up for a top-flight receiver, he’s a strong option to consider.
Top Value: Zay Flowers at Minnesota Vikings – $5,900 on DraftKings, $7,100 on FanDuel
With Lamar Jackson back at quarterback, Flowers is a great value this week against the Vikings, especially on DraftKings, where his salary only went up $500 this week. He has a 78% Bargain Rating on DraftKings to go with the highest Plus/Minus projection of all receivers on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
While he hasn’t been as elite as JSN, Flowers has been almost just as consistent. He has at least five catches in five straight games while playing with different quarterbacks throughout that stretch. He has hauled in 29 catches on 37 targets over that span.
Last week, Flowers welcomed back Jackson to the Ravens’ Thursday night matchup against the Dolphins, and the duo connected five times on five targets for 64 yards. This week’s matchup with McCarthy and the Vikings should be more competitive, and if that’s the case, it could lead to more targets for Flowers and more opportunities down the field.
Flowers has produced at least 11 DraftKings points in four of his last five games and is averaging 13.9 DraftKings points per game due to his consistent PPR production. While he does have that high floor, he also has playmaking upside and is usually one of the team’s top red zone options as well.
This week’s matchup isn’t perfect for Flowers, since the Vikings rank in the top 10 hardest matchups for wide receivers this season, but they did give up big games last week to both Amon-Ra St. Brown (nine catches, 97 yards) and Jameson Williams (four catches, 66 yards, and a touchdown).
With Jackson’s return raising the ceiling of the Ravens’ passing game and Flowers still remaining the top wide receiver, he has the potential for a great value performance in what should be a very good Ravens-Vikings matchup.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Trey McBride at Seattle Seahawks – $6,000 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel
Since Brock Bowers played on Thursday (with underwhelming results), McBride brings the top projections across the board at tight end to this week’s Sunday slate. He has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections in the aggregate projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and he also has the highest Plus/Minus projection at the position on both sites.
McBride has continued to flourish with Jacoby Brissett at QB instead of Kyler Murray (foot), and he has exceeded even his lofty salary-based expectations in each of the last three weeks. He has four touchdowns in those three games with 23 catches on 33 targets for a total of 201 receiving yards.
His best game of the season was in Week 7 before the bye week when he caught 10 passes for 74 yards and two scores against the Packers. His PPR production and extremely heavy target volume give him a high floor, along with that high ceiling, making him an excellent option if you can afford his hefty price tag.
The Seahawks have been pretty decent against tight ends this season, but McBride is matchup-proof at this point, with Brissett giving him so many chances to make plays each week.
Top Value: Hunter Henry at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $3,500 on DraftKings, $5,300 on FanDuel
San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on both sites, but he’s almost as expensive as McBride. If you’re looking to save some salary at tight end, Henry is a good play that has solid upside as the Patriots’ improving passing game faces a tough test in Tampa.
Henry’s production hasn’t been as consistent as McBride’s since second-year standout Drake Maye has been doing a good job of spreading targets around. When given looks, though, he has been a very good value play.
Last week against the Falcons, he had four catches on six targets for 51 yards after being held to just one catch the week before against the Browns. For fantasy, he still had a decent game since that one catch went for a touchdown.
He hasn’t hit double-digit DraftKings points since Week 4 but showed a high ceiling with two touchdowns and 29 DraftKings points in Week 3 against the Steelers. He has an average of 3.2 catches on 4.8 targets per game so far this season and should be a big part of the Patriots’ plan this week, especially with WR Kayshon Boutte (hamstring) seeming unlikely to play.
The Buccaneers have given up four tight-end touchdowns this season, along with an average of 5.6 catches for 47.1 yards per game to the position. Unless he finds the end zone, Henry doesn’t have as high a ceiling as the elite options, but at this salary, he brings very strong value potential to one of Sunday’s most intriguing matchups.
Pictured: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Photo Credit: Imagn
