Nailing the running back spots is essential for constructing a solid DFS lineup. It’s a bit easier to project than the receivers, where touchdowns and big plays are going to result in weekly variance. The workloads for the top running backs are much more stable, so they’re typically more consistent fantasy producers.
However, that also results in some of the heaviest chalk you’ll see across the industry. How do you handle those players each week?
In this piece, I highlight running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
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Rico Dowdle ($6,300 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel)
Week 9 represented a changing of the guard in the Panthers’ backfield. Dowdle took over as the team’s clear-cut No. 1 option, with Chuba Hubbard serving as his backup. Dowdle handled 74% of the team’s offensive snaps and 80% of the designed rushing attempts, and he responded with a monster showing. He racked up 130 rushing yards and two touchdowns, and he added two catches for 11 yards. Dowdle did that as a nearly two-touchdown underdog vs. the Packers, so it was an extremely impressive performance in a brutal spot.
With Dowdle locked in as the team’s starting RB, he has the potential to continue to rack up big performances. He’s averaged a stout 5.6 yards per attempt this season, and he’s been even better in weeks with big workloads. In his three games as the team’s true feature back, he’s averaged nearly 6.7 yards per carry.
The Panthers are far from an elite offense, but the one thing they do well is run the ball. They have the third-best run blocking grade per PFF, and they’re 12th in ESPN’s Run Block Win Rate. Ultimately, there’s no reason to expect too much regression for Dowdle as long as the offensive line continues to perform at that level.
Dowdle is in a much friendlier spot this week vs. the Saints. Instead of being 14-point underdogs, the Panthers are listed as 5.5-point favorites. Running backs tend to perform better in that split because playing with a lead usually leads to more opportunities. The Saints’ defense hasn’t been terrible against the run this season, but they’ve still allowed the 12th-most PPR points per game to the position.
Dowdle is simply too cheap if he’s going to see another expanded workload in Week 10. He leads the position in projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel, though he’s particularly appealing on the former. His $6,300 price tag comes with a 97% Bargain Rating, so he’s a really tough fade on that site.
TreVeyon Henderson ($5,600 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel)
The Patriots are going to be without Rhamondre Stevenson for the second straight game, so Henderson should see a few additional opportunities vs. the Buccaneers. He played on 75% of the team’s offensive snaps last week, which was easily his top mark of the season. He also racked up 56% of the team’s rushing attempts, and he was a major factor in the passing attack as well. Henderson finished with a 19% target share, and his six targets were his most since all the way back in Week 1.
Henderson will have to navigate a difficult matchup in Week 10. Tampa Bay has been stout against the run this season, ranking third in rush defense EPA.
However, they have struggled to defend running backs in the pass game. They’ve allowed 58.3 receiving yards per game to the position, which is the most in the league by a wide margin. They’ve also allowed 5.3 receptions per game to opposing RBs, and as a result, they’ve allowed the 11th-most PPR points per game to the position.
If Henderson can maintain his role in the passing attack, he should be able to return value at a very reasonable price tag across the industry.
Christian McCaffrey ($9,000 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel)
This slate is missing some of the usual heavy-hitters at running back. Jonathan Taylor, Bijan Robinson, and Josh Jacobs are all unavailable, leaving McCaffrey as the clear-cut No. 1 option.
That’s not to say McCaffrey hasn’t earned that ranking. He’s No. 1 at the position in terms of PPR points per game, despite Taylor scoring six more touchdowns than him. That’s due primarily to McCaffrey’s work as a pass-catcher. He has a massive 26% target share for the year, which is easily the best mark at the RB position.
McCaffrey has also shown some improvement as a runner of late. He has just two 100-yard games for the year, but they’ve both come in the past three weeks. He’s still not providing the best efficiency in that department, but his volume is simply unmatched. McCaffrey has racked up 229 touches in his nine games (25.4 per game), which is 45 more than any other player in football.
McCaffrey will square off with a tough Rams defense in Week 10, but he managed 27.9 DraftKings points in his first meeting with LA this season. They limited him to just 57 scoreless yards on 22 carries, but he racked up eight catches, 82 yards, and a touchdown through the air. One way or another, expect McCaffrey to get the job done more often than not. He leads the position in ceiling projection on DraftKings by nearly six full points.
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De’Von Achane ($7,400 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel)
Achane is the other stud RB to consider on this slate. He has been as steady as they come in 2025-26, posting a positive Plus/Minus in all but one outing. Like McCaffrey, his bread and butter is his work as a receiver, with Achane ranking second at the position with a 22% target share.
Achane will take the field in Miami this week, which is where he’s historically done his best work. He’s averaged just under 20 DraftKings points per game at home, good for an average Plus/Minus of +5.79. He’s been particularly good as a home underdog, posting an average Plus/Minus of +9.05 in four previous occasions (per the Trends tool).
The Bills aren’t a great matchup, but Achane had nine targets in his first meeting vs. Buffalo this season. He only managed seven catches for 29 yards in that outing, but that kind of volume upside is enticing. Achane ranks first at running back in optimal lineup rate in Sim Labs, and he’s expected to be one of the most under-owned options across the industry.
James Cook ($7,500 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel)
Cook doesn’t have the same bell-cow workload as guys like McCaffrey and Achane, which keeps him out of the stud conversation in most weeks. Specifically, he has just a 6% target share, and he’s handled just 35% of the team’s carries from inside the five-yard line. Those are the two most important areas for fantasy purposes, and Cook doesn’t thrive in either.
That said, the matchup vs. the Dolphins changes things. They have been a dreadful defensive team this season, and Cook dominated in their first meeting. He racked up more than 100 rushing yards and a touchdown, finishing with 23.8 DraftKings points.
This also sets up as an elite game script for Cook. The Bills are favored by nearly 10 points, and they lead the slate with a 30.0 implied team total. Since the start of last season, Cook has averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.15 when favored by at least a touchdown.
That makes him an interesting pivot off guys like McCaffrey and Achane. They’re both projected for more ownership, but Cook has a comparable ceiling at a cheaper price tag.
Quinshon Judkins ($6,500 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel)
There’s waving the white flag, and then there’s what the Jets did before the deadline. They shipped off their two best defensive players in Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams, so they are essentially writing off the rest of the year. The focus in now on finding a franchise quarterback, and the best way to do that is to improve their draft stock as much as possible.
The Jets have already been a pretty juicy matchup for most of the year. They’re merely 23rd in rush defense EPA, and Williams was easily their best run defender. In fact, he ranks first among all interior defenders in run defense grade per PFF. Losing him is going to make them even more vulnerable against RBs down the stretch.
That’s great news for Judkins. He’s been the Browns’ clear No. 1 RB essentially since walking in the door, racking up 80% of the team’s carries since Week 3. Judkins has had to deal with a lot of negative game scripts of late, but that shouldn’t be the case vs. New York. The Browns are actually listed as slight road favorites, so Judkins should see all the carries he can handle.
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Travis Etienne ($5,700 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel)
The Jaguars and Raiders played an extremely entertaining game in Week 9, with Jacksonville ultimately prevailing in overtime. Etienne saw a pretty sizable workload in that contest, racking up 22 carries and five targets. His 16% target share was tied for his top mark of the season, so that was a particularly nice development.
Etienne is going to have to deal with a significantly tougher matchup in Week 10. The Texans have been one of the best defenses in football this season, though they have been a bit more vulnerable against the run than the pass.
However, the Texans are also going to be without starting quarterback C.J. Stroud for this contest. They could do nothing on offense after losing Stroud in Week 9, so it’s a spot where the Jaguars could be playing with the lead. The Jags are listed as slight road favorites in this contest, and we saw last week what kind of workload Etienne can amass when playing from in front. It makes him an interesting tournament target across the industry.
Kyren Williams ($6,600 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel)
Williams took advantage of his favorable matchup vs. the Saints last week, finishing with his first 100-yard game of the season. He tallied 25 carries in a contest that the Rams thoroughly dominated, and he finished with 20.4 DraftKings points.
Williams has lost some value this season, with Blake Corum earning a larger share of the pie than he did as a rookie. However, Williams is still the clear leader in the backfield in both snap share (73%) and carry share (66%).
The 49ers’ run defense has been solid this season, but they were dealt a massive blow with Fred Warner going down with a season-ending injury. He’s one of the best run defenders in football, so his absence is going to be felt. They allowed 157 rushing yards to the Texans two weeks ago, so Williams has the potential to put together his second straight strong week.
David Montgomery ($5,000 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel)
Montgomery has not had the same level of success this year as he did in previous years with Detroit. That said, the team has made a concerted effort to get him more involved of late. He racked up 42% of the team’s carries in Week 7, and he followed that up with 55% of the carries in Week 9.
The Lions are coming off a disappointing loss last week vs. the Vikings, but their offense is in the perfect spot to get right this Sunday. They’re taking on the Commanders, and the Lions’ 28.25 implied team total ranks second on the slate. They’re also listed as eight-point road favorites, and they could be out for revenge after losing to the Commanders in the playoffs last year.
If the Lions’ offense can get back on track, Montgomery has the potential to massively outproduce his price tag. He’s gone for as many as 32.4 DraftKings points in a game this season, and very few players in this price range have that type of ceiling.
Kyle Monangai ($5,600 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel)
Monangai made the first start of his career last week vs. the Bengals, and he ran absolutely wild. He turned 26 carries into 176 yards, and he showcased plenty of explosiveness.
The big X-factor here is the status of D’Andre Swift. Swift is currently listed as questionable, and if he’s forced to miss his second straight game, Monangai will become the chalk at the position. He would be the Bears’ clear top runner against a Giants’ defense that ranks dead last in rush defense EPA.
The more intriguing scenario is if Swift is available. Monangai could fly a bit under the radar if that’s the case. Swift will undoubtedly eat into his workload a bit, but it’s possible that Monangai has won the starting job regardless of Swift’s status. If he’s looking at another starter-level workload in this matchup, the sky is the limit.
Pictured: De’Von Achane
Photo Credit: Imagn
