The quarterback position is one of the most flexible in NFL DFS. You can go in a variety of different ways. Do you pay up for one of the top studs or try to save some money with a value option? Do you eat the chalk or look for a low-owned option with upside? There’s no 100% one-size-fits-all answer, so each slate and contest type is going to require thought and consideration.
In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
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Jayden Daniels ($7,000 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel)
Every team in the league will be in action in Week 1, but it’s still not a particularly robust slate for quarterbacks. Many of the top QBs in the league are not available on the main slate, including Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, and Patrick Mahomes.
That leaves Daniels as the clear No. 1 option for Sunday’s main slate. He took the league by storm as a rookie, finishing as the No. 5 QB in terms of fantasy points per game. That production could’ve been even higher if not for the fact that he was limited by a rib injury during the middle of the season.
When Daniels was fully healthy, he solidified his status as an elite dual-threat fantasy quarterback. He had seven finishes as a top-five quarterback during the first 17 weeks, including a five-game stretch from Weeks 12 through 17 where he averaged better than 30 fantasy points per game.
It’s far from a guarantee that Daniels will take a big step forward in his sophomore season – just ask those who drafted C.J. Stroud last year – but QBs have historically made some of their biggest statistical jumps in their second year. Daniels will also have more at his disposal this season after the team added Deebo Samuel this offseason.
Ultimately, Daniels leads the position in ceiling projection, and he’s No. 3 on DraftKings in projected Plus/Minus (using the Sean Koerner projections). He also has the second-highest optimal lineup rate in Sim Labs, so he’s a phenomenal option if paying up at the position.
Trevor Lawrence ($5,300 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel)
While Daniels took the league by storm in 2024, Lawrence is still waiting to make his mark. He’s had some moments – especially his comeback playoff win over the Chargers in 2022 – but he’s generally failed to live up to expectations. He was considered a can’t-miss level of prospect, but he’s been merely average in both fantasy and real life.
However, Lawrence is extremely affordable at $5,300 on DraftKings, and he draws a phenomenal Week 1 matchup vs. the Panthers. Only the Cowboys allowed more fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks last season, and the Jaguars are expected to be one of the higher-scoring teams on the main slate. They’re currently implied for 25.0 points, which trails only the Bengals, Commanders, and Broncos.
This also has the chance to be the best supporting cast of Lawrence’s career. The team hit a home run with Brian Thomas Jr. at receiver last year, and they made a big splash by trading up for Travis Hunter in 2025. Hunter will reportedly be a full-time offensive option, giving Lawrence two potential alpha receivers to lean on.
Add it all up, and Lawrence stands out as the top salary-saver at the position. He leads all quarterbacks in projected DraftKings Plus/Minus, and he has the highest optimal lineup rate at the position in Sim Labs.
Now available: our NFL DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
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Joe Burrow ($7,000 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel)
From a ceiling standpoint, Burrow is the QB that can most closely compare with Daniels on this slate. He doesn’t bring nearly the same rushing upside to the table – which is a clear negative – but he makes up for it with arguably the best passing numbers in the league. He led all quarterbacks last season in completions, attempts, passing yards, and passing touchdowns, and he finished as the No. 3 QB in terms of fantasy points per game. If not for his team struggling so much on defense, he would’ve been in the MVP conversation.
Not much figures to change in 2025. The Bengals locked up both Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase to contract extensions, while their defense remains a major weakness. The Bengals are likely going to have to score a ton of points to win ballgames.
The big question is, can they do that from the start in 2025? They’ve been a notoriously slow-starting team, and Burrow has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of -1.03 in the first three weeks of the season (per the Trends tool). He’ll also have to face a division rival in Week 1 in the Browns, and Cleveland was an excellent defensive team two years ago.
Still, there’s no denying Burrow’s upside. His ceiling projection is only slightly lower than Daniels’, and he’s expected to check in with less ownership. That makes him a very intriguing pivot.
Baker Mayfield ($6,600 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel)
Mayfield is essentially Burrow-lite. He may not have been quite as successful last season, but he wasn’t that far off. He finished with 4,500 yards and 41 passing touchdowns, which ranked third and tied for second, respectively.
Mayfield is also in a much friendlier spot. While Burrow will have to go on the road in Cleveland, Mayfield will get to head to the dome in Atlanta. The Falcons were a juicy matchup last season, allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. They allowed 2.0 passing touchdowns per game to their opponents, and only the Panthers were worse in that department.
Mayfield threw for three touchdowns in both meetings vs. Atlanta last season, despite not having Mike Evans or Chris Godwin for the second. Evans will be back and ready to go in this contest, and the team added another pass-catcher in the first round with receiver Emeka Egbuka.
This game has the potential to be one of the best of the day for fantasy purposes. The 47.5-point total is tied for the top mark on the slate, while the Bucs are merely 2.5-point road favorites. That suggests a high-scoring, competitive affair, which tend to lead to the best fantasy performances.
Drake Maye ($5,500 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel)
While Lawrence stands out as the clear value QB to target on DraftKings, Maye is arguably the stronger option on FanDuel. He’s -$400 cheaper than Lawrence on that site, while he’s $200 more expensive than Lawrence on DraftKings.
What we saw from Maye during his rookie season was tantalizing. He brings sneaky rushing upside to the table, averaging 37.9 yards per game with two touchdowns in his 11 full starts. He added more than 200 passing yards and 1.4 passing touchdowns per game, and he had seven starts with at least 17.7 fantasy points.
Despite his limited success and cheap salary, Maye is not expected to be very popular in a home start vs. the Raiders. He’s projected for less than 5% ownership on FanDuel, but he’s first in our NFL Models in projected Plus/Minus. He also provides much more upside than his salary suggests, combining the eighth-highest ceiling projection with the second-lowest price tag among main-slate quarterbacks. Add in an above-average matchup, and there’s a lot to like with Maye on this slate.
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Brock Purdy ($6,200 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel)
Purdy pretty quietly had a solid 2024 campaign despite the rest of the 49ers turning to dust around him. He was the No. 12 QB in fantasy points per game, and he had four top-five finishes at the position. That included his final game of the year, where he torched the Lions for 377 yards and three touchdowns while adding a fourth score on the ground.
Purdy’s supporting cast should be better in 2025. Christian McCaffrey is healthy for the time being, while Jauan Jennings is expected to go in Week 1. Brandon Aiyuk is still recovering from his knee injury he suffered last year, but McCaffrey, Jennings, George Kittle, and Ricky Pearsall are more than enough to work with.
The matchup vs. Seattle isn’t ideal, but Purdy scored at least 19.36 DraftKings points in both matchups vs. the Seahawks last season. He has typically crushed in that matchup for his career, averaging 23.63 DraftKings points and a +4.28 Plus/Minus across six contests.
Kyler Murray ($6,400 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel)
There is a bit of sleeper hype building with the Cardinals, and any success with their team has to start with Murray. Murray managed to stay healthy last season, playing 17 games for the first time in his career. Unfortunately, his numbers weren’t as good as usual, and he finished as the No. 14 QB in fantasy points per game.
Still, we know the type of upside he brings to the table. He’s averaged 36.8 rushing yards per game for his career, and he added five touchdowns on the ground last season. If he can add a bit more production with his arm – something we’ve seen from him in the past – he could return to being a top-flight fantasy QB. Some development from last year’s first-round pick Marvin Harrison Jr. would definitely help, and the two are in a great spot for a potential breakout in Week 1. They’re taking on the New Orleans Saints in the Superdome, and the Saints are expected to be one of the worst teams in the league this season. The Cardinals’ 25.0-point implied team total is tied with the Jaguars for fourth-best on the slate, and Murray is projected for less than 5% ownership.
Bo Nix ($6,300 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel)
Like Maye, Nix is another second-year quarterback who impressed in his rookie season. He was able to get the Broncos into the playoffs, and he put together some strong fantasy performances along the way. He finished as the No. 9 QB in terms of fantasy points per game, and he was even better after overcoming some unsurprisingly early-season struggles.
Expectations for Nix and the Broncos are significantly higher heading into Year Two, but they get a phenomenal first matchup vs. the Titans. They’re massive 8.5-point home favorites, and Nix crushed as a favorite as a rookie. He posted an average Plus/Minus of +2.61 in nine starts, and he dominated in two starts as a favorite of more than a touchdown. He put up 36.54 DraftKings points vs. the Chiefs and 29.76 against the Panthers, so we’ll see if he can pick up where he left off.
Pictured: Jayden Daniels
Photo Credit: Imagn
