The PGA TOUR makes one more stop in the Sunshine State as it completes a month-long stay in Florida with a stop at Innisbrook Resort, just north of Tampa. The Copperhead Course will host this year’s Valspar Championship as the pros contend with another course with plenty of water in play and try to survive “The Snake Pit.”
This tournament at this venue has been a regular on the PGA TOUR since 2000, aside from its cancellations after the September 11 attacks and the COVID-19 pandemic. Over the years, it has a history of being a tough test of positional golf and usually is an enjoyable tournament with a good finish on Sunday. This year, the event is in a tough spot on the schedule, coming off of two consecutive elevated events the past two weeks and just before next week’s WGC-Match Play bracket competition in Austin.
Even with many of the biggest names sitting this week out, it still sets up to be a fun week of fantasy golf with some recognizable top names and plenty of interesting depth options who could come up with a win at Copperhead.
For more on the course and what stats to be on the lookout for, check out the stats preview from Matt Vincenzi.
The field for this week is not nearly as thin as it was for the Honda Classic a few weeks ago, but it is lighter than the last two weeks. Five of the top 20 in the Official World Golf Rankings will tee it up, and 10 in the top 50. There will be a lot of rookies and second-year PGA TOUR players trying to get critical FedExCup points this week and some very intriguing sponsor exemptions looking for Special Temporary Member status.
Sam Burns is looking to win his third straight Valspar after defeating Davis Riley on the second hole of a playoff last year. Matthew NeSmith and Justin Thomas finished just one shot back, while Matt Fitzpatrick and Brian Harman squeezed into the top five. All of those golfers are back in the field this year and are joined by Jordan Spieth, Tommy Fleetwood, Justin Rose, Keegan Bradley, Denny McCarthy, and Adam Hadwin to make up the top 10 in DraftKings salary.
In this post, we try to focus on players who have lower ownership projections than their potential performance. Finding these high-leverage plays with low ownership is critical for GPP lineups. I’ll try to highlight ways to go against the grain and take advantage of golfers who most fantasy players won’t be watching as closely.
Since these are GPP picks, we also can accept a little more risk if it raises the ceiling of the lineup. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownerships create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that usually lead to large-field success.
This weekly post focuses on players who are strong plays in GPP contests. These contests usually have lots of entries and pay out big prizes to the top few percent. The biggest example this week is the DraftKings $1M Pitch + Putt, which pays out $250K to the winner. In large contests like this one, it is critical to try and target players who have a chance to outperform salary expectations and come with low projected ownership.
The players highlighted will be good options if they deliver in all formats, but they come with risk factors that usually keep them from being the safest plays. Safety and reliability should be the focus of lineups in cash and double-up contests, where finishing in the top spot isn’t quite as important. On the other hand, GPPs call for high-risk, high-reward options with high ceilings and low projected ownership. To find specific guidance for all the different kinds of contests, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A couple of key new stats to specifically use for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
Usually, I rely on the Stroked Gained Model, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean into players that gain shots on approach since week-to-week putting performance can be extremely volatile, even for the best players on the PGA TOUR.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools that FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
High-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Jordan Spieth $10,600
Spieth is one of several former champions at this event that are in the field this week. He’s projected to have the second-highest ownership in the field behind only Justin Thomas, but the sims and projections still show that he’s a good play for all contests. For GPPs, you’ll just want to be sure to differentiate your Spieth lineups with lower ownership players in your other roster spots.
No player in the entire field ended up in more optimal lineups in our sims, meaning that Spieth has the highest Perfect% in the field. Even with his ownership projection just over 21%, he brings the third-highest SimLeverage in the entire field.
He also has the second-highest ceiling projection, median projection, and floor projection in the field, so there’s a lot to like about his chances this week. Pivoting from Thomas to Spieth is a little bit against the grain, and it could definitely be a move that pays off.
In the past two weeks, Spieth finished T4 at Bay Hill and T19 at TPC Sawgrass (where he got a painful assist from one spectator to make the weekend). Spieth also had a T6 at the WM Phoenix Open earlier this season and has exceeded salary-based expectations by over 20 DraftKings points in three of his four most recent tournaments. He has gained strokes on approach and around the green in each of his past four events and could walk away the winner this week if his putter cooperates. Over the last six weeks, he leads this field in SG: Total.
Spieth does have a good history at the course, but he hasn’t played here since 2018, when he missed the cut. Prior to that, he finished in the top 20 in all four of his four appearances, including his win in 2015.
Tommy Fleetwood $9,800
Fleetwood ranks just inside the top 10 this week in terms of projected ownership at just over 16%, but he’s another spot where I think it makes sense to be a little chalkier than normal with a big-ticket pick. If you build around Fleetwood, just make sure to differentiate your lineup in other spots with low-ownership options.
While he is still in search of his first victory in the U.S. (something they’ll talk about all weekend if he’s in the mix), Fleetwood has picked up six wins on the European Tour (DP World Tour). His most recent win on that tour was last November at the Nedbank Challenge.
Since coming stateside this season, Fleetwood has been solid, making three straight cuts, highlighted by a T20 at the Genesis Invitational. He was in the mix last week until a difficult closing 76 sunk him to T27. His approach game was still sharp, though, and should set him up for success at Innisbrook if he stays in the same form.
He played this event for the first time in his career last year, finishing T16.
Given his established track record, he has a higher floor than many of the boom-or-bust picks that usually make up my GPP picks. However, his ceiling is still plenty high enough to make him a key part of your lineups at this salary of just under $10K.
Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Davis Riley $9,000
Riley came the closest he ever has to a PGA TOUR victory in the last Valspar, and it was his first appearance at the event. He had a putt to win the tournament on the final hole of regulation but ended up losing to Burns on the second hole of the playoff when the defending champion knocked in a putt from over 30 feet. Riley’s runner-up finish remains his best career result.
After that close call, Riley racked up seven more top-15 finishes last spring and summer and made a run into the FedExCup playoffs. The 26-year-old has made nine of 14 cuts this season, even though he started slowly in 2023. He seems to have found his stroke since moving to the Bermuda greens of Florida and placed T8 at Bay Hill for his first top ten of the season.
Even though he came so close last year and course history has been a huge factor at Innisbrook, Riley’s ownership is projected to be under 15% this week. Of all the players at $9K or under, he has the third-highest ceiling projection behind only Justin Suh and Wyndham Clark, who both have much higher ownership projections. All three of those players are good options from this price range, but Riley has already proven he can get it done on this track while the other two have not.
Taylor Moore $8,300
Moore has the second-highest SimLeverage of players between $8K and $9K behind Maverick McNealy, who is still a huge injury risk and hasn’t shown much recent form. On the other hand, Moore has been excellent this season, outperforming salary-based expectations in five of his past six tournaments.
On the West Coast swing, Moore posted three top 20s before missing the cut at the Genesis Invitational. He bounced back in the Sunshine State, though, making the cuts at Bay Hill and TPC Sawgrass. Last week, he was owned in under 1% of lineups but exceeded salary-based expectations by over 30 DraftKings points.
He missed the cut last year in his debut at the Valspar but should be set for more success this week.
Value PGA DFS Picks
Garrick Higgo $7,600
Higgo is a boom-or-bust play that comes with a very high ceiling. He has the highest SimLeverage in the entire field since he rarely finishes in the middle of the pack, either returning elite value or crashing out of the tournament. He has found more success than struggles lately, though, with five made cuts in his seven most recent events, including a pair of top-20 finishes.
After success on the Sunshine Tour (South Africa) and the European Tour, he burst onto the scene in the states with a win at the Palmetto Championship at Congaree in 2021. The South African is still just 23 years old and has already proven to be solid with his irons and his short game. The lefty is also one of the best performers on par 5s, which is another key to success this week.
Despite the risk, Higgo brings a high enough ceiling to be a good play in this price range, especially with an ownership projection of just over 5%.
Ryan Gerard $7,300
Gerard has the fourth-highest Perfect% of all players under $8K but is projected for under a 9% ownership. He is playing on a sponsor exemption this week and could earn Special Temporary Membership with a strong finish. Earlier this season, he finished fourth at the Honda Classic as a Monday Qualifier and followed that up with a T11 at the Puerto Rico Open. In his most recent start on the Korn Ferry Tour, Gerard also posted a good result with a T3 at the Astara Golf Championship presented by Mastercard.
He’ll be very motivated to post another strong result to earn that Special Temporary Membership, which would open up more opportunities for him as the season unfolds. He needs at least a two-way T54 this week to get the points needed to secure that membership.
The 23-year-old who just turned pro in 2022 is riding quite the heater, but he didn’t exactly come out of nowhere. He earned his way onto the PGA TOUR through the PGA TOUR Canada, where he posted three top-five finishes last summer, including his one win as a pro at the Quebec Open.
Sleeper PGA DFS Picks
Tano Goya $6,600
Dylan Wu is the only player at $7K or lower who has a projected ownership of over 4%, so just the fact that you’re shopping in this discount section will serve as a lineup differentiator this week.
Goya is only projected for under 2% ownership despite his recent run of strong results. While he is a risk, he has shown solid form by making five straight cuts dating back to The American Express. He finished T26 that week and improved that result with a T11 in the Puerto Rico Open two weeks ago.
Goya climbed to the PGA TOUR through a long journey that took him literally around the world, and the 34-year-old from Argentina picked up seven international wins along the way. He actually plays the first two rounds alongside Wu and Pierceson Coody in a group that will get plenty of attention from fantasy players looking for value.
Given his recent success, salary, and experience in a wide range of conditions, Goya is a GPP play that makes sense and may end up being one of the best values of the week if he can stay in form.
Vincent Norrman $6,700
Another International who makes sense as a sleeper is Norrman, who is also in his first full season on the PGA TOUR. He took a much straighter path to the PGA TOUR than Goya and is still only 25 years old. The native of Stockholm, Sweden, earned his card via the Korn Ferry Tour, where he had six top 25s in 24 events last season. Prior to that, he had a very successful amateur career.
He is coming off his best finish of the season after finishing T21 at the Puerto Rico Open. It was his fourth made cut in his past five events, and he has outperformed salary-based expectations in each of those four tournaments.
Norrman seems to be trending in the right direction, has the right kind of game to fit the course, and is projected to be owned in barely 1% of lineups.
He will be making his debut at this tournament but does have a history on this course. When he was starring in college for Georgia Southwestern, he played the Copperhead Championship and finished in the top 10 for three straight years in 2017, 2018, and 2019. While the setup was definitely different for the amateurs, he should know his way around the course and understand the positional nature of the design.
He’s definitely a dark horse pick, but he represents a good way to differentiate your lineup by going with a cheap play and has the potential to make the cut and deliver a strong result. All the plays under $7K are long shots by definition, but Norrman has some attractive hidden upside.
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