U.S. Open: Top PGA DFS Picks, Values, and Sleepers for Large-Field GPPs on DraftKings

The 125th U.S. Open is set for this week at Oakmont Country Club, which will be hosting the historic, high-stakes event for the 10th time in its history, the most of any course in the rotation. The course is always extremely difficult, even though water and trees are not a huge part of its defenses. The course will be difficult because of the extra thick rough, lightning fast greens, slopes and undulating elevation on and around the greens.

Players who do well in the most difficult conditions in the toughest fields are who we’ll target this week, and for more details on the field, the course, the weather, and some key stats to track, check out this First Look from RotoGrinders.

Especially in large-field GPP tournaments, you’ll want to make sure to target players who have lower ownership projections than their potential performance. Finding high-leverage plays is critical for GPP success, so the picks here go against the grain, looking for under-owned options.

All Strokes Gained metrics referenced are from the Rabbit Hole.

Usually, I rely heavily on the Strokes Gained Model in FantasyLabs, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean toward players who excel in Strokes Gained: Approach, which is more sustainable week-to-week than a hot putter.

Since these are GPP picks, we can accept more risk in exchange for getting a higher ceiling. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownership create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that often lead to large-field success. To find guidance for all contest types, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.

No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A few critical new stats for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.

As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.

Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.

Editor’s note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.

High-Priced PGA DFS Picks

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Unless otherwise noted, all Strokes Gained metrics referenced in this article come via the Rabbit Hole.

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Scottie Scheffler $14,400

Scheffler is a very expensive piece to build around, but that is keeping his ownership projection low for the week. He has the highest ceiling, floor and median projections in the field and the top Perfect% by a margin of over 20%. Despite his elevated salary, he is in over half of the optimal lineups in our thousands of sims, but his ownership projection is just a little over 30%.

Scheffler has the highest ownership projection in the field, but it isn’t as high as his chances of being the winner or a key part of the winning lineup. Scheffler isn’t a sneaky pick, to be sure, but he is a solid one that will likely deliver a high finish even if he doesn’t win.

He has won three times this season, all coming in his last four starts. He ran away at TPC Craig Ranch to win THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson, claimed the most recent major championship at the PGA Championship a month ago, and won the Signature Event at “Jack’s Place” to start the month of June. The only time he didn’t win, he finished T4 at Colonial Country Club, and since the end of March, he has posted a string of seven straight top-10 finishes. Even when he misses, it isn’t by much.

He leads the field in just about every meaningful metric, including Total Strokes Gained, Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and Strokes Gained: Approach over the last 30 rounds. There’s no question about his ability to win in the toughest fields in the toughest conditions, and he’s a great place to start your lineup this week as long as you find salary relief and leverage on the rest of your roster, which is exactly what the rest of these picks are designed to do.

Ludvig Aberg $9,600

Scheffler is one of five golfers with a five-figure salary this week, but at just under $10K, there are a couple of strong leverage options. Collin Morikawa and Aberg both seem to be a bit overlooked from an ownership projection standpoint, with Aberg’s under 15%.

Aberg isn’t a value play at this salary for sure, but he does have a very high ceiling and offers good leverage. He has the second-highest SimLeverage of players from $7,500 to $10,000.

Earlier this season, Aberg claimed his second PGA TOUR win at the Genesis Invitational, outlasting an elite field at Torrey Pines. He dropped off a bit after that, but surged back onto the stage with a T7 at the Masters.

After missing the cut at the PGA Championship in the next major, he looked very sharp the last two weeks with a T16 at the Memorial and a T13 at the RBC Canadian Open. He finished up last week with rounds of 65 and 66, and his ball striking has been outstanding after gaining strokes on approach in back-to-back events, highlighted by 7.8 strokes gained ball striking in Canada.

Last year, Aberg finished T12 in his U.S. Open debut and had the lead after the second round. He has the kind of all-around game needed in these difficult conditions. He isn’t a “safe” play, with less consistency and history than the other golfers in this price range, but for GPP, he has too high of a ceiling to ignore at this type of ownership projection.

Now available: our PGA DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.

Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks

All Strokes Gained metrics referenced are from the Rabbit Hole.

Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.

Editor’s note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.