This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate.
Corey Kluber: Pitcher, Indians
Paying all the way up for Kluber on the early slate could pay off: His 0.81 WHIP has been off the charts over the past 12 months. He takes the mound against a projected White Sox lineup implied for a slate-low 2.7 runs with a subpar 27.8% strikeout rate and .302 wOBA against right-handed pitchers. Unsurprisingly, Kluber carries a slate-high K Prediction of 9.3, and the Indians are today’s largest favorite (per our Vegas Dashboard):
He’s allowed some hard contact lately — his 94-mph exit velocity over the past three starts is the second-worst mark on the slate — but with limited high-priced options avaiable Kluber is likely to carry high ownership. It could be worth eating the chalk in guaranteed prize pools, as pitchers with comparable K Predictions and Vegas data have provided an unreal +7.63 Plus/Minus on DraftKings with a 71.8% Consistency Rating.
Charlie Morton: Pitcher, Astros
Morton is the most expensive player on the main slate, and paying all the way up at pitcher isn’t easy to do with Coors Field in play, but the opposing Rays are implied for a slate-low 3.1 runs, and Morton is somewhat affordable on FanDuel with a 98% Bargain Rating. He trails only Kluber with his 10.8 K/9, and he sports a slate-leading 8.1 K Prediction. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries, Vegas data and K Predictions have performed well on FanDuel (per the Trends tool):
The projected Rays lineup owns a slate-high 28.6% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, but Morton’s Statcast data isn’t anything special lately. He’s allowed a middling recent batted-ball distance of 209 feet and a subpar 47% hard-hit rate over his last two starts. Even so, he hasn’t given up many fly balls (28%), and his long-term 1.12 WHIP and low .958 HR/9 inspire a ton of confidence.
Salvador Perez: Catcher, Royals
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top (non-Coors) five-man DraftKings stack in the Bales Model belongs to the Royals, who are implied for a healthy 5.0 runs and massive 91 Team Value Rating:
Kansas City has the pleasure of facing Rangers righty Austin Bibens-Dirkx, who was just called up from Triple-A. Over the past year he owns a slate-worst 1.73 WHIP and slate-high 1.63 HR/9.
Salvador Perez stands out as one of the highest-rated batters on the slate, possessing strong Statcast data and a Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL) of +49. Historically, batters with comparable lineup spots, implied totals and Statcast data have averaged a Plus/Minus of +0.60. Similar RBBLs boost the Plus/Minus to +1.88.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Hunter Dozier (17) and Salvador Perez (13)
Photo credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
