This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate.
Max Scherzer: Pitcher, Nationals
Each slate is different, but in Scherzer’s last start (May 11), ownership was flat among the high-priced pitchers (per our DFS Ownership Dashboard):
That could be the case again tonight, as the slate lacks a standout option in our Models, and Scherzer’s high price is somewhat restrictive in terms of lineup construction. He leads the slate with a massive 11.0 K Prediction against a Dodgers team currently implied for a slate-low 2.9 runs (per our Vegas Dashboard). There are only 31 instances of a K Prediction higher than 10.5 in our database, but Scherzer’s projection is warranted, as 12.83 SO/9 is incredibly rare. His -90 Recent Batted Ball Luck is concerning, but he’s unlikely to have exorbitant ownership because of the other high-priced options on the slate, and he carries immense upside in guaranteed prize pools with his strikeout projection and Vegas data.
Note: The Dodgers-Nationals game currently has a 67 percent chance of precipitation. Monitor weather throughout the day on our MLB Lineups page.
Jacob deGrom: Pitcher, Mets
One of the high-priced options who could siphon ownership from Scherzer is deGrom, as the opposing Diamondbacks own a slate-high 30.0% strikeout rate and bottom-three .294 weighted on-base average (wOBA) against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. They are implied for just 3.2 runs, and deGrom trails only Scherzer with a K Prediction of 8.9. Pitchers with comparable Vegas data and K Predictions have historically provided value on DraftKings, albeit at high ownership (per our Trends tool):
One issue that could depress deGrom’s ownership is his recent stint on the 10-day disabled list with a hyperextended right elbow as well as his early exit against the Phillies (May 13), although the latter was due primarily to an hour-long rain delay and not his injury. He’s averaging a +2.4 DraftKings Plus/Minus and a massive 75% Consistency Rating over the past year as well as a strong 1.13 WHIP and 10.61 SO/9.
Matt Olson: First Baseman, Athletics
Per our Vegas Dashboard, there are five teams implied for at least 5.2 runs on Sunday. Just outside the top tier implied for a healthy 4.9 runs, the Athletics are an intriguing pivot, especially on FanDuel with their Team Value Rating of 86:
The Athletics have the pleasure of facing Blue Jays righty Marco Estrada, who has some of the slate’s worst Statcast data with a recent batted-ball distance of 248 feet and fly-ball rate of 57% as well as a bottom-four 1.79 HR/9.
One player who stands out for Oakland is Olson, projected to hit fifth (per our Lineups page). He has smashed the baseball recently, boasting an average distance of 247 feet, exit velocity of 95 mph, and fly-ball and hard-hit rates of 51% and 54%. His +44 Recent Batted Ball Luck suggests that he is hitting the ball better than his short-term fantasy production indicates. Olson will also be on the positive side of his wOBA, and ISO splits, as he sports an elite .427 wOBA and .369 ISO against righties over the past 12 months.
Good luck on today’s slate, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Jacob deGrom
Photo credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
