This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate.
Max Scherzer: Pitcher, Nationals
Each slate is different, but in Scherzer’s last start (May 6), ownership was surprisingly flat among the high-priced pitchers (per our DFS Ownership Dashboard):
That could be the case again tonight, as the slate lacks a standout option in our Models. Scherzer leads the slate with a massive 11.0 K Prediction against a Diamondbacks team currently implied for just 3.2 runs (per our Vegas Dashboard). This is somewhat uncharted territory for our Trends database — there are only 29 instances of a K Prediction higher than 10.5 — but Scherzer’s projection may be warranted, as the projected Arizona lineup owns a slate-high 32.0% strikeout rate over the past 12 months. The issue with Scherzer isn’t so much whether he’s likely to hit value; it’s whether he crushes enough in order to make up for fading one of his high-priced counterparts.
Justin Verlander: Pitcher, Astros
One of the high-priced options who could siphon ownership from Scherzer today is Verlander, as the opposing Rangers are implied for a slate-low 3.1 runs, and the Astros have slate-high moneyline odds of -250. Verlander also sports a solid K Prediction of 8.3, which when paired with similar Vegas data historically provides tremendous value on DraftKings (per our Trends tool):
One issue with Verlander is his recent form. Over his last two games, he’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 240 feet, exit velocity of 91 miles per hour, and fly ball rate of 69%. Historically, pitchers with comparable Statcast data have averaged a -0.90 DraftKings Plus/Minus. That said, what’s most peculiar about Verlander’s Statcast data is that he’s underperformed while allowing an amazingly low 19% hard-hit rate. Adding that filter to the trend diminishes the sample size considerably, but the Plus/Minus does spike to +0.98.
With Scherzer and Chris Sale in the slate, Verlander’s unlikely to have exorbitant ownership, but he carries upside in guaranteed prize pools given his strikeout projection and Vegas data.
Cody Bellinger: First Base, Dodgers
Finding cheap hitters is important if you’re looking to squeeze in a stud pitcher. Looking past an Indians team with considerable weather concerns, no team on today’s slate has a Team Value Rating (TVR) higher than the Dodgers on DraftKings (78) or FanDuel at (83):
Bellinger will bat cleanup against Reds right-hander Matt Harvey, who has arguably the slate’s worst Statcast data with a recent batted-ball distance of 255 feet, exit velocity of 94 miles per hour, hard-hit rate of 33%, and massive fly-ball rate of 60%. On top of his putrid Statcast data, Harvey owns a slate-worst 2.138 HR/9.
Meanwhile, Bellinger is sporting a respectable recent average distance of 229 feet, exit velocity of 91 mph, hard-hit rate of 41%, and fly-ball rate of 38%. He’s also on the positive side of his wOBA and isolated power (ISO) differentials, sporting a 0.38 wOBA and 0.27 ISO against righties over the past 12 months. Hitters with comparable batted-ball data and implied team totals have historically averaged a +2.22 Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
Good luck on today’s slate, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Justin Verlander
Photo Credit: Tim Heitman-USA Today Sports
