After a two-week stay in Hawaii, the PGA TOUR is stateside for this week’s edition of the American Express. Specifically, the pros will be in and around La Quinta, California, for this full-field event, which stretches over three courses for the first three rounds of play before focusing on the Stadium Course on Sunday. The format for this event is unique due to the rotating courses, with the cut coming after the third round instead of the second. The top 65 and ties will play on Sunday for what should be a fabulous finish.
The courses are each a little different, but all are par-72 courses with Poa greens. Players who make the cut will play two rounds on the Stadium Course at PGA West, including the final round. That course is quickly becoming one of the most popular in the early part of the season. Like the famed Pete Dye design at TPC Sawgrass, this course features an island green on No. 17, but since this is in Cali, the hole gets the nickname “Alcatraz.”
After last week’s field at the Sony Open in Hawaii gave players on the rise a chance to contend, the biggest stars are back in the field this week. World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler leads the way along with Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, Tom Kim, Tony Finau and Jason Day. The winners from The Opening Drive in Hawaii–Chris Kirk and Grayson Murray are also in the field. Justin Thomas is scheduled to make his first start of 2024, and Daniel Berger will return to competition after missing almost two years with a back injury.
In this post each week, we’ll focus on players who are strong GPP options. That means they have lower ownership projections than their potential performance. Finding this kind of high-leverage play is critical for GPP success. The picks here go against the grain to take advantage of players who may be overlooked and under-owned.
Since these are GPP picks, we can accept more risk if it raises the lineup’s ceiling. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownership create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that usually lead to large-field success.
GPP contests are contests that have large numbers of entries and pay out huge prizes to the top few percent. This week, the largest GPP on DraftKings is the $600K Pitch + Putt, which awards $200K to first place and is $20 per entry.
The players highlighted will be good options if they deliver in all formats, but they come with risk factors that usually keep them from being the safest plays. Safety and reliability should be the focus of lineups in cash and double-up contests, where finishing in the top spot isn’t quite as important. To find specific guidance for all contest types, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A few critical new stats for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
Usually, I rely on the Stroked Gained Model, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean into players that gain shots on approach since week-to-week putting performance can be highly volatile, even for the best players on the PGA TOUR.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools that FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
Editors note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.
High-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Sungjae Im $10,100
Four players are priced over $10,000 this week, and it looks like Im is the place to get the most leverage. While Scottie Scheffler, Xander Shauffele, and Patrick Cantlay all make good plays, Im has the best SimLeverage and has a much lower projected ownership than those other top options.
Im has thrived on this course in the past. He has appeared in this event five times in the last five years and finished in the top 20 every single time, although never in the top 10.
Despite his reputation as a grinder who plays every week, Im has been relaxing a bit over the last few months. After a strong push through the FedExCup Playoffs with top 10s at the St. Jude Championship and the BMW Championship, he played just one event in the fall, finishing T12 at the ZOZO Championship. He also knocked off the rust at the Sentry, where he climbed to a T5 with a 63 on Sunday.
Since this is an event where scores are typically very low, and the weather is cooperative, it should play to Im’s strengths. He’s one of the best on the PGA TOUR in low-scoring events like this one, so it seems like a great fit for him.
His balanced game always makes him a threat, and he actually has a higher median and ceiling projection than Cantlay.
Since he comes at a lower price and has lower projected ownership, Im is a great option to build around from the high-priced category.
Jason Day $9,600
Day is another player with great SimLeverage of the 12 players priced over $9,000. Day had an impressive career resurgence last year, and he typically starts the year well on the West Coast swing.
He finished 2023 with a win at the unofficial Grant Thornton Invitational while playing alongside Lydia Ko in the pairs event. He started 2024 strong as well, with a top 10 at the Sentry, where he finished with an eight-birdie closing round.
Day has a good history on courses designed by Pete Dye and seems to have good momentum coming into the week. Last year was just his second career appearance at La Quinta, but he has made the cut in both events and finished in the top 20 last year.
I’m a big fan of several golfers in the $9,000 range this week, but Day stands out as the best play of the bunch, especially with a low ownership projection.
Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Chris Kirk $9,000
Kirk was a great redemption story last season and claimed his fifth PGA TOUR career win at the Honda Classic. He already started this season with a win as well, winning the Sentry two weeks ago at Kapalua. He finished his successful Aloha Swing with another top 20 at the Sony Open last week.
In his past trips to this event, Kirk has posted strong results with three top 25s and a third-place finish last year as part of his comeback campaign. His salary is still pretty affordable at just $9,000, and he’s projected for one of the lowest ownerships in this bracket despite his recent excellent form. His low ownership gives him the fourth-best SimLeverage in the whole field.
The advanced metrics actually show that Kirk’s approach game was sharper last week than in his win in Maui. He gained a career-best 11.9 strokes on the field ball striking, and he could have finished even higher if his putter hadn’t let him down. Kirk’s past success on these greens could indicate he will flip the putter and be a strong play again this week.
He has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all players over $9,000 and represents a solid value at that salary.
He’s outside the top 10 in salary but inside the top 10 in ceiling, median, and floor projection.
Taylor Montgomery $8,100
There aren’t a lot of spots for leverage in the $8,000s with heavy ownership projections. One notable exception is Montgomery, who has the highest SimLeverage of all players priced between $8,000 and $9,000.
Montgomery is known as one of the best putters on the PGA TOUR, but his approach game has been shaky at times. Last week, he flipped that script and looked exceptional on approach, finishing second in the field in SG: Approach, but his putter slipped a bit, and he ended up T13.
It was the latest in a string of strong results for the Las Vegas native, who should feel right at home in the desert of La Quinta. He finished 2023 with four straight tournaments above salary-based expectations, highlighted by a top 10 at the RSM Classic.
Last year, he finished fifth at this event, and he has a chance at another great week if he can pair his improved iron play with his typically strong putting.
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Value PGA DFS Picks
Davis Thompson $7,600
Thompson burst onto the scene at last year’s American Express, finishing second after being out-dueled down the stretch by Jon Rahm. Without Rahm in this year’s field, Thompson will hope to duplicate his success from last season.
After that runner-up finish, Thompson struggled through the rest of the spring, but he found his stride again late in the year, making eight of his last nine cuts and exceeding salary-based expectations in all eight of those events. He did make his 2024 debut last week in Hawaii, where he made the cut and finishedT57, again exceeding salary-based expectations.
Thompson has the firepower to go low when he’s on, and his ownership projection is well under 10%. Given his recent form, he should be able to make the cut, and given how good he looked last year in this event, it isn’t a stretch at all to say he could contend again this week if things go his way.
Erik Van Rooyen $7,500
Van Rooyen had a good start to 2024 in Hawaii, making the cut in both events and exceeding salary-based expectations in eight straight events dating back to last fall on the European Tour.
After scoring 65-69-65 to wrap up the week in Maui, he fired four more rounds in the 60s on Waialae to finish T52. His putting let him down a bit, but he still ranked in the top 10 in SG: Approach.
The South African won the World Wide Technology Championship last fall and posted six other top-25 finishes on the PGA TOUR and DP World Tour from September through November.
He has made the cut in both of his previous appearances at the American Express and finished T6 last year. Despite his impressive form and past history at La Quinta, his projected ownership is still very reasonable. In fact, Van Rooyen has the highest SimLeverage in the entire field and brings the best Perfect% of all golfers priced at $8,200 or below.
Sleeper PGA DFS Picks
Robert MacIntyre $6,800
MacIntyre is making his debut at this venue as he continues to transition to the PGA TOUR. Although he doesn’t have course history or even a lot of experience in this style of event, his overall pedigree makes him stand out at this price. He brings a high ceiling as one of the best young golfers from Europe, and if he puts it together this week, he could be right in the mix on Sunday.
Of the 91 golfers under $7,000, Bobby Mac has the highest median, floor and ceiling projection and the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus. He also has the best Perfect% in this price range.
While he hasn’t played here, he does have some solid finishes in Dubai on desert courses and is coming off a made-cut last week at Waialae. The 27-year-old Scotsman is on the verge of what could be a breakthrough season on the PGA TOUR, and this is a good spot to get him cheap early in the year.
Tyler Duncan $6,700
Duncan jumps out in our projections as one of the strongest plays under $7,000. He matches MacIntyre for the highest Perfect% of all players priced at $7,000 and under and also brings the second-highest SimLeverage in that price range.
The veteran rolls into La Quinta with good form after making the cut at The Sony Open in Hawaii last week, giving him six made cuts in his last eight tournaments dating back to the FedExCup Fall. He had several strong results in the fall, including a third-place finish at The RSM Classic to wrap up 2023.
Duncan has also been able to make the weekend in four of his last five trips to this event, including a T41 last year for his personal best finish on this track. The converging trends of made cuts make him an attractive bargain play if you’re looking for an affordable cut-maker this week.
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