What’s wilder than a five-way playoff? Let’s head to Las Vegas this week and find out! The PGA TOUR continues the FedExCup Fall series with a trip to the desert this week for the Shriners Children’s Open. While it’s still a fall series event, the field this week is much stronger than last week and features some of the bigger names on the PGA TOUR.
There are five players scheduled to compete who made it to last year’s TOUR Championship, led by defending champion Tom Kim. Kim won by three strokes last year over Matt NeSmith and Patrick Cantlay, while Tom Hoge, Seongheyeon Kim, and Mito Pereira rounded out the top five. The other TOUR Championship qualifiers playing this week are Nick Taylor, Si Woo Kim, Adam Schenk and Emiliano Grillo.
Last week’s winner, Luke List, is still planning to play as well, and Ludvig Aberg will also be playing for the second straight week after making the playoff last week after an impressive Ryder Cup debut. Another very interesting subplot to watch is the race for FedExCup points, as players try to earn their way to a PGA TOUR card for next season by finishing in the top 125 and qualify for the first two signature events of next year by finishing in the “next 10” which will earn spots 51-60 after the first 50 were locked in at the start of the playoffs.
The event will be held at the par-71 TPC Summerlin, which has been the regular home for this event over the past few years. The course is usually one of the easiest scoring relative to par that the players face in the entire season. The altitude offers players plenty of driving distance, so usually, the winner of the event comes down to accuracy and shot-making. The setup usually leads to plenty of birdie and eagle chances, and the player that converts those chances can end up with an extremely low score.
This weekly GPP post focuses on players with lower ownership projections than their potential performance. Finding high-leverage plays is critical for GPP success. The picks here are designed to go against the grain and take advantage of players who may be overlooked or not selected due to risk factors.
Since these are GPP picks, we can accept more risk if it raises the lineup’s ceiling. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownership create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that usually lead to large-field success.
GPP contests are contests that have large numbers of entries and pay out huge prizes to the top few percent. Since this week is a major, the largest GPP on DraftKings is the $300K Sand Trap, which awards $100K to first place.
The players highlighted will be good options if they deliver in all formats, but they come with risk factors that usually keep them from being the safest plays. Safety and reliability should be the focus of lineups in cash and double-up contests, where finishing in the top spot isn’t quite as important. To find specific guidance for all contest types, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A few critical new stats for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
Usually, I rely on the Stroked Gained Model, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean into players that gain shots on approach since week-to-week putting performance can be highly volatile, even for the best players on the PGA TOUR.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools that FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
Editors note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.
High-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Cameron Davis $10,300
With super-popular and ultra-productive young players Ludvig Aberg and Tom Kim at the top of the salary structure projected to draw big ownership, it’s not surprising that there could be great value in pivoting to less heavily owned options near the top of the salary structure. In fact, J.T. Poston and Cameron Davis, the other two players priced at $10K or more, are the top two players in SimLeverage this week since both Aberg and Kim are pulling in over 25% projected ownership.
Davis is my favorite play at the top of the salary structure since he has put together such a strong season after a slow start due to illness. I’ve had the 28-year-old Aussie as a regular in my picks since mid-season, and he has usually delivered good results. He has outperformed salary-based expectations in six of his past eight tournaments and made the cut in seven of those eight events.
He has the third-highest ceiling, median, and floor projections in the field and the third-best odds to win this week, according to Vegas.
In his last five starts, Davis has posted four top-10 finishes, including a third-place finish at the Fortinet Championship last month. He was very good on and around the greens in that performance and could have challenged for the win if not for a Final Round 70.
Davis has a solid history at this event, going 4-for-4 in making the cut over the last five seasons. He hasn’t had an extremely high finish here, but he has had success on similar courses that reward accuracy and ball-striking while coming in a little on the shorter side. His best finishes have also come in very low-scoring events like this one is expected to be.
If you combine Davis with Kim or Aberg, he can be part of an intriguing “stars and scrubs” build, or you can use him as a differentiator at the top of a more balanced approach. He costs less than Aberg and Kim and has ownership projected to be over 10% lower.
Adam Schenk $9,200
Adam Schenk has the fifth-highest median and ceiling projection in the entire field, so getting him as the 10th-most-expensive option offers good value. His 16% ownership projection is a little higher than several of the options in his price range, but his upside is high enough that he’s worth eating a little chalk to get in your lineup. Just be sure to differentiate with plays in other spots.
Throughout this past season, Schenk has looked on the verge of a breakthrough win. He finished runner-up back at the Valspar in May and added four top-10 finishes in his 10 events since then. His most recent of those top 10s came at the TOUR Championship, where he climbed to sixth place with a big week highlighted by a Round 1 63.
When Schenk is on his game, he excels in SG: Approach and SG: Putting. He also tends to do well in low-scoring events, so his skillset fits TPC Summerlin. As a result, it’s not surprising that he has a good track record at this event. He has four top 25s in six appearances at this event and finished third two years ago.
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Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Vincent Norrman $8,800
While Aberg has deservedly grabbed the headlines in the recent infusion of young Scandinavian talent, he isn’t the only rising star from Sweden. Vincent Norrman is just 25 years old and already has a pair of impressive wins on his resume from this past year. He claimed the Barbasol Championship in July for his breakthrough win on the PGA TOUR, and he won the Horizon Irish Open in September on the DP World Tour.
Norrman is projected for under 11% ownership this week, which gives him the third-highest SimLeverage in the field behind just Poston and Davis. He’s a very nice way to get a high ceiling for a player with a salary under $9K.
Norrman also matches seven Pro Trends this week, the fourth-highest number of any player in the field.
In each of his last eight DFS events spanning both the PGA TOUR and the DP World Tour, he has exceeded salary-based expectations with an average Plus/Minus of 28.9 DraftKings points. During that span, he has posted five top-25 finishes, including his two wins and a solid T18 at the BMW PGA Championship in his most recent start.
Last year, he made his debut at this event and shot a 67 in Round 1 before fading with a 72 in Round 2 to just miss the cut. With his recent success, though, I expect a much stronger showing this week as he starts his second turn through these fall events.
Davis Thompson $7,800
Normally, I grab two players in the $8K-$9K range in these two spots in my picks, but this week, I’m going to dip just under $8K to grab my guy (but no relation) Davis Thompson. Thompson was in my picks last week as well, and he delivered a strong T16 at the Sanderson Farms Championship.
Like last week, this event profiles well for him since his strength is creating and converting birdie opportunities. Thompson has finished in the top 31 in five of his last six tournaments dating back to the Rocket Mortgage Classic in early July.
He has the second-highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of all players under $8K and also has the highest Perfect% of any player in that price bracket.
Thompson initially burst onto the scene this past season by battling Jon Rahm at The American Express, where he finished runner-up. Just before that, though, he posted a T12 at this event last year, firing four straight rounds under 70. That was his second of six total top-25 finishes since the start of the 2022-23 season.
At just 24, Thompson is another young star on the rise, and those are typically the kind of players who seize the chance to make some noise in the FedExCup Fall as they prepare for potentially breakout campaigns in the following year.
Value PGA DFS Picks
Doug Ghim $7,800
If Thompson is a little too chalky for you with his 13.8% projected ownership, Doug Ghim is available at the same salary with just a 7.1% projected ownership. You can definitely include both players in your build or alternate them to give a couple of different looks.
Of the players priced between $7.5K and $8.5K, Ghim offers the second-highest SimLeverage. He is outside the top 10 in projected ownership of the players under $8K but ranks in the top five in median, ceiling and floor projection and the top six in Perfect%.
Ghim has exceeded salary-based expectations in nine of his past 11 tournaments, with missed cuts at the Scottish Open and last week’s Sanderson Farms Championship as his only two letdowns. His missed cut last week on the number helps keep his ownership down, but I expect him to bounce back nicely at this venue that fits his skillset as a shotmaker.
In his two most recent appearances at TPC Summerlin the last two years, Ghim made the cut. He resides in Vegas, so this is a bit of a home game for him. Maybe his knowledge of the greens will help his putter catch fire since his shot-making is usually strong enough to give him chances to convert.
Matt NeSmith $7,100
If you’re a fan of course history, Matt NeSmith is a great play for you this week. He has played this event for four straight years and finished in the top 20 each year. Last year, he was co-runner-up behind Kim after four straight rounds in the 60s, highlighted by a sizzling 63 on Saturday.
NeSmith has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections of all players under $7.5K and also the highest projected Plus/Minus of all the players in that price range. The only minor drawback is that he is expected to be pretty highly owned, so be sure to differentiate at other roster spots.
The 30-year-old from South Carolina comes in with a little bit of momentum as well after finishing in the top 25 last week in Jackson. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in five of his last seven events and will look to stay on track this week on one of his best courses.
Sleeper PGA DFS Picks
Nate Lashley $6,900
Nate Lashley has the second-highest ceiling, median, and floor projection of all the players under $7K this week, and he also brings the third-highest projected Plus/Minus and the third-highest Perfect% from the 72 players priced in the $6,000s.
Last week, Lashley missed the cut in Jackson, but prior to that, he had made five straight cuts dating back to the Rocket Mortgage Classic in July. He posted a T30 at the Fortinet to start the FedExCup Fall and will look to get back on track this week in Vegas. He missed the cut last year at this event as well but made the cut in each of the three previous years.
Lashley is projected for under 3% ownership this week, but he is the kind of “swing for the fences” sleeper play that can make your GPP lineup hit if he ends up making the cut and playing solid this week.
Andrew Novak $6,300
Novak is a huge flier this week, but the models and projections both have him ranked very highly. He has the third-highest projected Plus/Minus in the entire field and the second-highest Pts/Sal.
He’s extremely affordable at just $6,300, and even just a made cut could result in a huge outperformance of his salary-based expectations.
Novak missed the cut last week in Jackson, but he qualified for this event on Monday. He won medalist homers at Spanish Trail Country Club with a nine-under 62. He actually bogeyed his second hole of the day before catching fire with 10 birdies on his next 16 holes.
He’ll be looking to build on his success on Monday since he starts the week sitting at 117 in the FedExCup Fall rankings, and a big week could help him secure his card for next season. This will be his second appearance at this event after missing the cut in 2019. In that appearance, though, he did shoot a 65 in Round 2, so he seemed to figure some things out after his 75 in Round 1.
Novak does have a high ceiling and popped for two top 10s this last season at the Valero Texas Open and the RBC Canadian Open. He’s a boom-or-bust play, but there is enough upside to make him worth a look in GPPs for sure.
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