Round 4 of the Arnold Palmer Invitational will be underway Sunday morning, so let’s dive into a quick breakdown of Sunday’s Showdown slate on DraftKings.
With a two-stroke lead, Tyrell Hatton ($10,000) should likely be a core play in lineups for Round 4 since you’ll get the placing bonus if he hangs on for the win. The placing bonus isn’t the only reason to roster him, however. He’s been excellent this tournament, ranking ninth in Strokes Gained: Approach and fourth in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. The wind looks like it may increase throughout the day which bodes well for Hatton as he excels in windy conditions.
With the exception of Hideki Matsuyama ($10,500), you can make a case for anyone above $10,000. Rory McIlroy ($10,800) leads the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and is just two strokes off the lead. It’s mostly his putter that’s been holding him back as he’s the only golfer inside the top three that ranks outside the top 20 in Strokes Gained: Putting (40th).
Sungjae Im ($10,200) is second in the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, but similar to Rory, he’s struggled with his putter, ranking 44th in Strokes Gained: Putting.
Golfers to Buy
Tom Hoge ($7,400) is starting the day T9 and ranks second in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and eighth in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. If he can get some putts to drop on Sunday, he could be in good shape and improve his placing bonus.
Scottie Scheffler ($8,400) has been sporadic this tournament, but his round three looked great from a ball-striking perspective. On Saturday, he ranked eighth in Strokes Gained: Approach and second in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. And even though he ranks 52nd in Strokes Gained: Approach for the tournament, he still ranks sixth tee-to-green. Given he’s a solid iron player in the long run, I still like him heading into Sunday.
If you need salary relief to make a top-heavy lineup, Joel Dahmen ($6,900) is a good place to start. Dahmen has strong long irons, which sets up well at Bay Hill, and despite sitting at +1, he’s been a great ball-striker this week. Overall, Dahmen ranks third in both Strokes Gained: Approach and Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green.
Golfers to Sell
Matt Jones ($7,300) is sitting in at T9, but he hasn’t been great with his irons, ranking 50th in Strokes Gained: Approach. It seems like he should be due for regression with his irons in subpar shape. Jones is one of two players who’ve made it to the top 10 without gaining strokes on the field in approach.
Even though Sung Kang ($8,300) has been playing fairly well this week, I don’t mind fading him from his T8 position since he typically isn’t a strong player on approach or tee-to-green. He ranked outside the top 90 in both metrics heading into this tournament over his last 50 rounds.
As much as I love Collin Morikawa ($9,800) his price tag might be too steep for the ideal build on Sunday. It’s possible to fit in both Rory and Hatton, which would make getting to Morikawa near impossible. He’s been elite with his irons, as usual, leading the field in Strokes Gained: Approach. But, if the birdies aren’t there on Sunday, it’ll be tough for him to pay off his price tag.
- Marc Leishman ($8,600) is a strong play who will begin the day T2. He’s been solid tee-to-green, and he seems to have a feel for the greens, ranking second in Strokes Gained: Putting.
- Christian Bezuidenhout ($7,900) should fit well into most builds at his price. You get the benefit of him starting T4, and his metrics are respectable, gaining strokes on the field in all facets, except for off the tee.
- If you wanted to roster just Hatton from the $10,000 range, you can make a balanced build that is stacked with guys in the top 10. Harris English ($8,900) makes sense as a piece for that sort of build, ranking fourth in Total Strokes Gained this week.
- Bryson DeChambeau ($9,500) may not catch much ownership if DFS players are trying to load up on two $10,000 guys. He’s been sporadic this week and hasn’t been able to string together a complete solid round, flip-flopping performances with his irons. Bryson leads the field in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and led the field in approach on Saturday. If he can keep his irons hot for two days in a row, he should be in for a nice Sunday.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more golf coverage!
Strokes Gained data via Fantasy National
Pictured above: Tyrell Hatton
Photo credit: Sam Greenwood/Getty Images