The PGA Course Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the Fantasy Labs Trends Tool and metrics to highlight stats for the upcoming tournament.
Next on deck for the PGA Tour is the Rocket Mortgage Classic in Detroit, Michigan at Detroit Golf Club.
Let’s dive in.
This is the first time this course has hosted a PGA event so we have no data to go off of. So we’ll be flying blind as far as which metrics are the most important. Normally when this is the case, I take a basic approach and stick to the metrics I deem the most important on a weekly basis like Adjusted Round Scores, Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, along with a few other metrics.
For example, according to our PGA Correlation Matrix, outside of Odds Score and Long-Term Adjusted Round Score — Long-Term Birdie Score is among the most correlated metrics with fantasy points scored, which isn’t surprising with how birdie scoring is weighed among fantasy points. So, starting with metrics such as LT Adj Rd Score and birdie scoring would be a solid starting point for DFS rosters, and then supplement with some of the various other metrics we typically use on a weekly basis.
We also added a column for top-10 odds in the FantasyLabs Models, which has backtested very favorably and one that I weigh highly in my personal model. Bryan Mears did a great job of discussing that here during the Masters.
Detroit Golf Club will play as a 7,340-yard par 72 for this tournament.
This course features 10 par 4s at various yardages:
- Under 400 yards: 4
- 400-450 yards: 2
- 450-500: 4
With the mix of par-4 yardages, I’ll be putting my focus on the par 4s that are 400 or fewer yards, and at the 450-500-yard ranges.
This course will feature a lengthy 635-yard par 5 along with three other par 5s that check in at 550 yards or longer. No. 7, No. 14 and No. 17 all appear to be reachable in two among the par 5s, so eagle-scoring could be another metric to put some weight into.
The course is expected to have rough grown to 3.5 inches, which is one inch longer than they grow it for the members. Most holes also appear to be lined with trees, so keeping it in the fairway off the tee would be ideal. The hole-by-hole preview on the PGA Tour site mentions “precision,” “accuracy” or some sort of placement reference for tee shots on 8-of-18 holes, so golfers have their best chance at hitting some of the par 5s in two shots or having the best looks on their approaches into par 4s. Spraying it off the tee might not be ideal for at least some of the holes at Detroit Golf Club.
Overall, this course looks like it should be extremely favorable for scoring with the short par 4s and gettable par 5s.
Key metrics: Birdie or better scoring, par-4 and par-5 scoring, Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.
And as usual, I like Long-Term (LT) and Recent Adjusted Round Score (Adj Rd Score) as catch-all metrics.
Pictured above: Dustin Johnson
Photo credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports