The Week 1 afternoon slate contains four games that begin at 4:05 p.m. ET on Sunday, Sep. 9.
- Kansas City at LA Chargers (-3.5)
- Seattle at Denver (-3)
- Dallas at Carolina (-2.5)
- Washington at Arizona (PK)
Cash Game Roster Construction
Quarterback
- Case Keenum $5,100 DraftKings; $6,300 FanDuel (vs. Seattle)
The return of Earl Thomas isn’t ideal, but Keenum still has a top-two Projected Plus/Minus on both sites.
Running Back
- Christian McCaffrey $6,400 DraftKings; $7,500 FanDuel (vs. Dallas)
- Melvin Gordon $6,800 DraftKings (vs. Kansas City)
- Kareem Hunt $8,000 FanDuel (at L.A. Chargers)
CMC has the top Projected Plus/Minus on the slate on DraftKings and the third-highest on FanDuel. Hunt and Gordon have top-five floors on both sites.
Wide Receiver
- Jamison Crowder $5,000 DraftKings (at Arizona)
- Emmanuel Sanders $5,000 DraftKings; $6,200 FanDuel (vs. Seattle)
- Devin Funchess $6,400 FanDuel (at Dallas)
- Larry Fitzgerald $6,600 DraftKings; $7,300 DraftKings (vs. Washington)
Crowder figures to be a top target for Alex Smith with Patrick Peterson not allowing separation on one side of the field, but Crowder doesn’t have enough touchdown upside for FanDuel.
Sanders will draw perhaps Seattle’s best corner, Justin Coleman, but Manny is still underpriced relative to projected volume
Fitzgerald should gobble up targets after Washington traded away slot corner Kendall Fuller, who earned a top-three PFF coverage grade last season.
Tight End
- Jordan Reed $4,000 DraftKings (at Arizona)
- Nick Vannett $4,300 FanDuel (at Denver)
Reed hasn’t seen his DraftKings salary lower since 2015. Vannett is cheap enough to warrant punt consideration against a Broncos D that ranked 31st in DVOA vs. tight ends.
Defense/Special Teams
- Chiefs $2,300 DraftKings (at L.A. Chargers)
- Cowboys $3,500 FanDuel (at Carolina)
I don’t have confidence in any of the favorites which leads me to punt with a defense that had two double-digit fantasy games last season against Philip Rivers, who hasn’t beat Bob Sutton’s D since 2013.
The Cowboys can actually be a decent defense until Sean Lee‘s annual detonator sets off. I wouldn’t be surprised if Carolina stumbled out of the gate with a banged up offensive line in their first game under Norv Turner.
The Chiefs have the top Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings; the Cowboys rank second on FanDuel.
Salary Remaining
- DraftKings: $8,800
- FanDuel: $8,800
The Build
There’s just enough salary on DraftKings left to FLEX all-purpose monster David Johnson, who has by far the highest floor projection on the slate.
On FanDuel, there’s still $200 left once you FLEX Johnson and upgrade from Reed to Vannett, and it can be used to turn Hunt into into either Gordon or Ezekiel Elliott. I used our Trends tool to see which is better: Elliott as a road underdog or Gordon as a home favorite?
- FanDuel points: Elliott 18.0; Gordon 16.2
- Plus/Minus: Gordon +2.14; Elliott +0.54
- Consistency Rating: Gordon 58.3%, Elliott 50%
Given that Elliott will be without center Travis Frederick, it’s essentially a toss-up. I’ll probably roll out Gordon as a home favorite vs. KC’s 32nd-ranked unit in run defense DVOA, but would understand if you want with the superior talent in Elliott even against Carolina’s top-five group.
Rivers was abysmal against KC even last season, which also negatively impacted the value of Keenan Allen, so the only real alternative is staying with Vannett and Hunt to get up to Cam Newton, though Cam is no lock given his banged up O-line. I may end up splitting exposure to those two builds.
Tournament Roster Construction
Ranking the Builds
- Expensive running backs, cheap receivers
- Balanced
- Expensive receivers, cheap running backs
The odds of at least 2-3 of the top five running backs hitting is high, so rolling out different combos of three and differentiating with passing-game stacks looks like the best move. The available top receivers and cheap backs aren’t in great spots, so I wouldn’t go too heavy on combinations of that build.
Differentiators
- Chiefs offense: Patrick Mahomes-Tyreek Hill is the highest-upside stack on the slate — they’re capable of simply outthrowing/out-running LA’s excellent deep coverage.
- Courtland Sutton: Could start outside in three-wide sets and be Denver’s top red-zone target from Day 1.
- Paul Richardson on DraftKings: At only $3,900, it’s worth taking a chance he avoids Peterson.
- Cole Beasley: There was buzz in camp about him being Dak Prescott’s No. 1 target.
- Chad Williams, Christian Kirk: Williams earned the No. 2 role in Arizona, and both are leverage plays off Fitz.
- Austin Ekeler: The cheapest running back that could conceivably hit.
Let’s get this shmoney!
For more in-depth NFL analysis information, check out The Action Network.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Chris Raybon is a Senior Editor at the Action Network and a co-host of “I’ll Take That Bet” on ESPN+. He has watched every snap of every NFL game since 2010 — even the kneel downs. Follow him on Twitter @ChrisRaybon and read about how he quit his accounting job and got paid to watch sports.
