The PGA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the Fantasy Labs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
The World Hero Challenge is an invite-only, 18-player field with no cut in the Bahamas. Given the small field, there’s going to be a tremendous amount of overlap in players. Presently, every golfer is projected for at least 20% ownership.
With no data in the FantasyLabs Trends tool for Albany, it isn’t possible to back-test the metrics, but luckily this course isn’t too difficult to decipher.
Albany is a par-72, 7,309-yard links-style course with fairways that are easy to hit, so it should favor bombers to an extent. The tricky part with Albany is the wind since it’s near the ocean, but the current forecast looks rather mild on Thursday with six to 12 mph winds, but anywhere between 10 to 20 mph from Friday to Sunday.
The greens are small at Albany, and chipping around them can be difficult due to the grainy Bermuda grass surrounding the greens. Golfers have expressed the difficulty of chipping around the greens in the past. Given the small surface area of the greens, I’ll be emphasizing greens in regulation.
Furthermore, what makes Albany unique is there are a whopping five par 5s and five par 3s, so adjusted strokes on par 3s and 5s will be metrics to consider.
Key metrics: Adjusted strokes on par 3s and 5s, birdie scoring, greens in regulation.
Given the small field, the easiest way to be unique would be to have some salary leftover once you’ve built your roster. Leaving salary off the table can be -EV, but with the strong field, it’s a viable approach, especially since it’s small.
Some possible roster constructions:
- Two of the three $10,000-plus golfers (DraftKings) and three golfers above $10,500 on FanDuel
- Build by Long-Term Adjusted Round Score (Adj Rd Score)
On DraftKings, it’s possible to use both Dustin Johnson ($10,500) and Justin Rose ($11,000). Rose and DJ are top two in the field in long-term birdie scoring and adjusted strokes on par 3s, 4s and 5s. Rose is scorching hot right now with six-straight top-eight finishes and four top-three finishes in six of those appearances.
Rostering both guys gives you an average salary of $7,100 remaining on DraftKings, which still allows you to use Tony Finau ($7,500), who ranks fourth in long-term birdies and third in adjusted strokes on par 5s.
If choosing to go this route on DraftKings, Gary Woodland ($6,300), Alex Noren ($6,500), Henrik Stenson ($6,600) and Patrick Cantlay ($6,700) are all viable salary-saving options:
- Noren’s metrics don’t jump off the page, but he’s a solid player in the wind.
- Woodland is sporting an excellent 67.9 recent Adj Rd Score over his past three tournaments and has two top-five finishes in his past four tournaments.
- Stenson leads the field with 73.5% GIR over the past 75 weeks.
- Cantlay boasts the eighth-best long-term Adj Rd Score (68.3), but he’s priced as the sixth-cheapest golfer on DraftKings.
Overall, Woodland, Cantlay, Stenson and Rose are the only four golfers in the field who have hit at least 70% of GIR over the past 75 weeks.
On FanDuel, it’s viable to roster three of the following if you go the top-heavy route: DJ ($11,500), Rose ($11,300), Rickie Fowler ($11,100), Justin Thomas ($10,900) and Bryson DeChambeau ($10,700). With the exception of DeChambeau, all four of those golfers own top-five Adj Rd Scores in the field, and DeChambeau has been scorching hot with three wins since August.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more golf coverage!
Pictured above: Justin Rose
Photo credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports