The time has finally come for the 125th U.S. Open, which for the 10th time will be played at Oakmont Country Club (par 70, 7,372 yards, POA annua greens) in Oakmont, Pennsylvania. Oakmont most recently hosted the 2016 U.S. Open and that year, Dustin Johnson (-4) won by three strokes. At last year’s U.S. Open at Pinehurst No. 2, Bryson DeChambeau (-6) won his second U.S. Open title. This week’s field consists of 156 golfers and there will be a top-60 and ties cut after the first two rounds.
The PGA DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.
My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots, on average, it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.
Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.
There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
- Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
- Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green
Don’t forget to check out two key metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.
The Cliffs Notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.
And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Optimizer, Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.
The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.
PGA DFS Cash Game Thoughts
Note: FantasyLabs has partnered with Betsperts Golf and the Rabbit Hole! Sign up for the biggest database of golf stats available on the internet and get 25% off a yearly sub with our link!
Unless otherwise noted, all Strokes Gained metrics referenced in this article come via the Rabbit Hole.
Tool Highlights
- Build unlimited custom stat models with official PGA TOUR data.
- Hundreds of filters to find the exact data split you’re looking for.
- Save custom reports and run them again with next week’s field.
- Download anything you want to your computer with the click of a button.
- See expert models each week.
DraftKings $10,000+ Range
Bryson DeChambeau ($11,000)
Priced a whopping $3,400 lower than Scottie Scheffler, DeChambeau is the best stud to build around this week. The defending champion’s game is built for U.S. Open venues. DeChambeau’s win at Pinehurst No. 2 last season was his second U.S. Open victory and his sixth top-30 finish in 10 starts at this major, including a T15 at Oakmont in 2016. Nine years later, DeChambeau sits 191 spots higher in the golf rankings at No. 10 in the world. The 31-year-old is coming off a T4 at LIV Virginia last week, which is his sixth top-six finish in eight starts on the circuit season. The bomber leads the LIV Golf league in Driving Distance this season and being one of the best drivers of the golf ball on the planet will give DeChambeau a distinct advantage at the lengthy Oakmont. DeChambeau has finished T6th or better in five of his last six starts at a major and he is in prime position to win his second straight U.S. Open this week.
Now available: our PGA DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
DraftKings $9,000 Range
Ludvig Aberg ($9,600)
Aberg finished T12th in his U.S. Open debut last season and the Swede should produce another high finish at Oakmont this week. Aberg has generated six top-25 finishes in 13 starts this season – most notably with a win at the Genesis Invitational – and his driver has been by far his best club, with Aberg ranking 19th in Total Driving. With three top-12 finishes in just six major starts, the 25-year-old knows how to elevate his game at major championships, and Aberg is a great target at this salary, which is a huge decrease from his $10,600 salary for last month’s PGA Championship.
DraftKings $8,000 Range
Tommy Fleetwood ($8,800)
Fleetwood is one of the most consistent players on the PGA TOUR and, per usual, a superb target for cash games. The Englishman has made a whopping 19 straight cuts and 17 of these finishes have been top-25 results. As of late, Fleetwood has produced three top-seven finishes in his last five starts. The 34-year-old ranks top-15 in both SG: Approach and par 4 performance this season, and at the U.S. Open, Fleetwood has made 7-of-9 cuts with four top-20 finishes, two of which have come in the past two years.
Hideki Matsuyama ($8,000)
While Matsuyama missed the cut at Oakmont in 2016, this salary is far too low for the former Masters champion. That missed cut in 2016 is Matsuyama’s only missed cut in 12 starts at the U.S. Open. The 33-year-old has finished T26th or better nine times at this major, including a T6 at Pinehurst No. 2 last season. Matsuyama has made 11 of 14 cuts with seven top-25 finishes this season and this is the cheapest he has been on DraftKings in nearly four years.
DraftKings $7,000 Range
Shane Lowry ($7,800)
Lowry is unavoidable for cash games at this season-low price tag. The Irishman is fresh off a T13 finish at the RBC Canadian Open last week, which marked his 10th top-25 finish in 14 starts this season. Lowry has nearly won twice with two runner-up finishes and his irons have been his calling card, with the veteran ranking second in SG: Approach this season. Last, but not least, Lowry finished runner-up to Johnson at the 2016 U.S. Open at Oakmont. Lowry has made 8 of 12 cuts at this major with four top-20 finishes and he is good chalk to embrace this week.
Tyrell Hatton ($7,600)
Hatton has generated five top-15 finishes in eight starts on the LIV tour this season and the Englishman has been very reliable at the major level. Hatton has only missed one cut in his last 14 starts at a major and eight of these finishes have been top-30 results, including a T26 at Pinehurst No. 2 last season. Hatton was just priced up to $9,000 for the PGA Championship last month and is no-brainer at only $7,600 this week.
Russell Henley ($7,400)
You can’t go wrong with Henley at this season-low salary. Highlighted by a win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in March, the 36-year-old has made 10 of 12 cuts this season with seven top-30 finishes, including a T5 at the Memorial Tournament his last time out. Henley ranks 11th in Total Strokes Gained this season and his resume at the U.S. Open is very impressive. In 11 starts at this major, Henley has made eight cuts and six of these finishes have been top-30 results, including a T14 and a T7 the past two seasons.
Corey Conners ($7,300)
Conners finished T9th at Pinehurst No. 2 for last year’s U.S. Open and this season, the Canadian has only missed one cut in 15 starts and 10 of these finishes have come inside the top 25. Conners has been outstanding with the driver this season, ranking 10th in SG: Off-the-Tee and eighth in Driving Accuracy, setting the 33-year-old up well for Oakmont, where being in the fairway will be crucial for success. Conners also ranks 18th in par four performance, which is another important skill for Oakmont, as this venue is a traditional par 70 that features 12 par fours. Johnson led his field in Par-4 Efficiency when he won at Oakmont in 2016 and Conners is an incredible value play at this low salary, which is the cheapest he has been on DraftKings since last year’s Open Championship.
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DraftKings $6,000 and Below Range
Si Woo Kim ($6,900)
Kim has advanced to the weekend at three of the last four U.S. Opens and he has made six solo cuts in a row entering this week, with four top-20 finishes during this timeframe. Most notably, Kim finished T8th at the PGA Championship last month, which is not only very notable because it is the best major finish of his career but also because the PGA Championship was played at Quail Hollow, which, like Oakmont, is a long track that is home to POA greens. Kim ranks 15th in SG: Tee-to-Green and 36th in SG: Off-the-Tee this season, and he is a sensational bargain at this low price tag.
Aaron Rai ($6,400)
Rai finished T19th at Pinehurst No. 2 last season and the Englishman has made 11 of 15 cuts this season with seven top-25 finishes, including a T19 at last month’s PGA Championship. Rai leads the PGA TOUR in Driving Accuracy this season and his precision off the tee should translate into success at Oakmont, where avoiding the penalizing rough and fairway bunkers will be extremely important. At -175 on DraftKings Sportsbook, Rai carries the 19th-best odds to make the cut at Oakmont this week, but he is only the 54th most expensive golfer on DraftKings for DFS.
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Pictured: Bryson DeChambeau
Photo credit: Imagn
