The John Deere Classic will be played at TPC Deere Run (par 71, 7,289 yards, bentgrass greens) in Silvis, Illinois, this week. TPC Deere Run has been the host of the John Deere Classic since 2000 and Davis Thompson is the defending champion after he won this event at a tournament-record -28 last season. This week’s field features 156 players and there will be a top-65 and ties cut after the first two rounds.
The PGA DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.
My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots, on average, it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.
Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.
There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
- Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
- Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green
Don’t forget to check out two key metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.
The Cliffs Notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.
And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Optimizer, Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.
The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.
PGA DFS Cash Game Thoughts
Note: FantasyLabs has partnered with Betsperts Golf and the Rabbit Hole! Sign up for the biggest database of golf stats available on the internet and get 25% off a yearly sub with our link!
Unless otherwise noted, all Strokes Gained metrics referenced in this article come via the Rabbit Hole.
Tool Highlights
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- See expert models each week.
DraftKings $10,000+ Range
Ben Griffin ($10,400)
Griffin is without question the top overall pick this week and he should have been priced higher than this. Griffin is having the best season of his career and he has finished inside the top 15 at six consecutive tournaments, including a win at the Charles Schwab Challenge, a runner-up finish at the Memorial Tournament and a T10 at the U.S. Open. Griffin ranks sixth in the FedEx Cup standings and he finished T5th in his first attempt at TPC Deere Run last season. Sitting 54 spots higher in the world golf rankings this time around, Griffin has a great chance of securing his third victory of the season this week.
Now available: our PGA DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
DraftKings $9,000 Range
Denny McCarthy ($9,900)
McCarthy has finished inside the top seven at three straight John Deere Classics and he returns to TPC Deere Run fresh off a T12 at the Travelers Championship, marking his eighth top-25 finish of the season. McCarthy has gained strokes on approach and with his flat stick at back-to-back events, and he ranks ninth in SG: Putting for the season. McCarthy has always been a wizard on the greens and his elite work as a putter should help him once again contend at this birdie fest. Of the last four winners of the John Deere Classic, three have finished the tournament top five in SG: Putting.
Michael Thorbjornsen ($9,100)
Thorbjornsen has made six solo cuts in a row, most notably with a T4 at the Rocket Classic last week. During that finish, the 23-year-old gained strokes in every major category at Detroit Golf Club and he finished runner-up in birdies for the week. Now, Thorbjornsen heads to TPC Deere Run, where he has finished T17th and runner-up the last two years. Thorbjornsen ranks second in Strokes Gained per round at TPC Deere Run among the players in this field that have competed at the course more than once and he is very underpriced relative to his odds to win the John Deere Classic. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Thorbjornsen and J.T. Poston carry the same odds to win at +3000, but Thorbjornsen costs $1,000 less than Poston for DFS.
DraftKings $8,000 Range
Chris Kirk ($8,900)
Kirk has made 6 of 7 cuts with four top-25 finishes at TPC Deere Run and he is playing his best golf of the season right now. After finishing T12th at the U.S. Open, Kirk finished runner-up at last week’s Rocket Classic, as he lost in the three-man playoff to Aldrich Potgieter. Kirk has gained strokes in every major category in each of these past two starts and in this sizzling hot form, the six-time PGA TOUR victor has winning upside.
Michael Kim ($8,200)
Kim has made 17-of-20 cuts with nine top-30 finishes this season and while he has only made 3-of-7 cuts at TPC Deere Run, Kim won by eight shots at this venue in 2018, which is the largest margin of victory in the history of the John Deere Classic. Kim has only failed to gain strokes on approach in three of his 20 starts this season and he is a safe target for cash games that should at least provide a top-30 finish.
DraftKings $7,000 Range
Nico Echavarria ($7,800)
Echavarria has never competed at TPC Deere Run before, but he should thrive in the low scoring conditions of this par 71. At another easy track in Detroit Golf Club last week, Echavarria shot -20 and finished T6th, while gaining strokes with both his irons and putter. The Columbian has made the cut in seven of his last eight solo starts and he ranks fifth in SG: Putting this season. Catching fire with your flat stick will be essential for success this week and Echavarria should have a great John Deere Classic debut.
Mark Hubbard ($7,700)
Hubbard has advanced to the weekend in six of his last seven solo starts and four of these finishes have come inside the top 15. Hubbard just finished T13th at the Rocket Classic last week, in which he posted an 8-under 63 in the first round and gained strokes across the board for the event. Hubbard has made 5 of 7 cuts at TPC Deere Run—including three top-25 finishes—and he is one of the best bargains on the board at this sub-$8,000salary.
Emiliano Grillo ($7,500)
Grillo finished runner-up at TPC Deere Run in 2022 and he returns to Silvis as the maker of 12 of his last 14 cuts. Grillo has tallied four top-25 finishes in his last five starts and when we compare this field’s last 24 rounds, he ranks third in SG: Approach and first in 400-450-yard par four efficiency, which sets him up perfectly for TPC Deere Run, where five of the 11 par fours fall between 400 and 450 yards. Furthermore, 22% of the approach shots for the last five John Deere Classics have been from 125-150 yards and Grillo ranks 15th in proximity to the hole on approach shots from this distance this season.
Kevin Roy ($7,400)
Roy finished a solid T31st in only start at a John Deere Classic two years ago, but he has much better upside this week. Roy has made seven solo cuts in a row and he has recorded three top-20 finishes in his last four starts, including a T8 at last week’s Rocket Classic. During this start, Roy posted a 10-under 62 in the first round, which is his career low on the PGA TOUR and was one stroke away from tying the lowest score of the event. Plus, Roy gained a career-high 7.6 strokes approach, which was good enough to rank him third in the metric at the Rocket Classic. Looking to carry this momentum over to TPC Deere Run, Roy is an elite value play that has top-10 upside.
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DraftKings $6,000 and Below Range
Zach Johnson ($6,900)
Johnson has made 6-of-10 solo cuts this season with three top-25 finishes – most notably with a T8 at the Masters – and the two-major champion is a true course horse at TPC Deere Run. Johnson has made 19 of 22 cuts at this par 71 and seven of these finishes have been top-five results, including a win in 2012 and three runner-up finishes. Johnson is gaining a strong 1.59 strokes per round at TPC Deere Run, which is extremely impressive when you consider he has played a whopping 82 rounds at this venue. Johnson gears up for the John Deere Classic every year and this is the cheapest he has ever been priced on DraftKings for this event. Johnson not only should make the cut this week, but he also has top-30 upside and he is the best option priced under $7,000.
Hayden Springer ($6,900)
In his John Deere Classic debut last season, Springer took TPC Deere Run by storm with a T7 finish, including an eye-popping 12-under 59 in the first round. On top of this being Springer’s career low on the PGA TOUR by four strokes, this 59 is tied for the course record at TPC Deere Run. Returning to the par 71 as the maker of 10 of 12 cuts with three top-25 finishes this season, Springer is a terrific bargain play that can be trusted in cash games.
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Pictured: Denny McCarthy
Photo credit: Getty Images
