With all four majors now behind us, we head to TPC Twin Cities (par 71, 7,431 yards, bentgrass greens) in Blaine, Minnesota for the 3M Open. TPC Twin Cities has hosted all six 3M Opens and at last year’s edition of this event, Jhonattan Vegas (-17) won by one stroke. This week, there will be 156 players competing and a top-65 and ties cut after the first two rounds.
The PGA DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.
My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots, on average, it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.
Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.
There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
- Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
- Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green
Don’t forget to check out two key metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.
The Cliffs Notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.
And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Optimizer, Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.
The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.
PGA DFS Cash Game Thoughts
Note: FantasyLabs has partnered with Betsperts Golf and the Rabbit Hole! Sign up for the biggest database of golf stats available on the internet and get 25% off a yearly sub with our link!
Unless otherwise noted, all Strokes Gained metrics referenced in this article come via the Rabbit Hole.
Tool Highlights
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DraftKings $10,000+ Range
Sam Burns ($10,500)
Burns is the best stud to build around for the 3M Open. The LSU product has finished T7th, T32nd, and T12th at TPC Twin Cities, in that order, and Burns is having an awesome season, making 17 of 20 cuts with 10 top-25 finishes. Losing in a playoff, the 28-year-old nearly won the RBC Canadian Open last month and Burns leads the PGA TOUR in SG: Putting this season. Four of the last five winners at TPC Twin Cities have finished the event top-eight in SG: Putting and this is a perfect spot for Burns to rejoin the winners circle.
Chris Gotterup ($10,000)
While Burns is the No. 1 overall play, Gotterup isn’t far behind, and pairing the two players in cash games is a totally viable strategy this week. After winning the Genesis Scottish Open by two shots to claim his second PGA TOUR win, Gotterup had no winner’s hangover at The Open Championship last week, finishing T3rd in his first attempt at the major. The 26-year-old has now finished inside the top 30 in each of his last 10 solo starts and Gotterup is the No. 27-ranked golfer in the world, after he began this season at No. 191. When we compare this field’s last 24 rounds, Gotterup impressively ranks first in Total Strokes Gained. The bomber is in incredible form and while he has been solid at TPC Twin Cities in the past, finishing T31st and T59th, Gotterup should easily have his best performance at the par 71 this week.
Now available: our PGA DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
DraftKings $9,000 Range
Rickie Fowler ($9,500)
Fowler is playing his best golf of the season right now, finishing T18th at the John Deere Classic and T14th at the Open Championship in his last two starts. The veteran gained strokes in every major category at both these events, and Fowler closed out the Open Championship last week with a 6-under 65 in the final round at Royal Portrush. The 36-year-old has generated seven top-25 finishes this season and while Fowler has been solid at TPC Twin Cities in the past, finishing T34th and T38th, he has much better upside this week and could contend in this weak field.
Tony Finau ($9,100)
Finau has competed at every 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities and he has been brilliant at the par 71. In this order, Finau has finished T23rd, T3rd, T28th, first, T7th, and T12th at TPC Twin Cities. Among the players in this field that have competed at this venue more than once, Finau ranks second in Strokes Gained per round. The 35-year-old has made 13 of 17 cuts with five top-25 finishes this season and Finau should have one of his best showings of the season at TPC Twin Cities this week. Notably, Finau was priced up to $10,500 for last year’s 3M Open.
DraftKings $8,000 Range
Emiliano Grillo ($8,400)
While Grillo missed the cut at last week’s Barracuda Championship, he should bounce back at TPC Twin Cities. Before last week, Grillo had made seven cuts in a row and four of these finishes were top-25 results, including a runner-up finish at the John Deere Classic earlier this month, which was played at another TPC course in TPC Deere Run. Plus, Grillo has been awesome at TPC Twin Cities. In his four appearances at this Arnold Palmer-designed venue, Grillo has finished T3rd, MC, runner-up, T10th, and T24th, in that order. Among the players in this week’s field that have competed at TPC Twin Cities more than once, Grillo ranks fourth in Strokes Gained per round at the par 71.
Akshay Bhatia ($8,000)
Bhatia finished T64th in his first start at TPC Twin Cities last season, but he should be in store for a much better result this week. Bhatia is coming off a T30 at the Open Championship last week, which is his fourth top-30 finish in his last six starts. Bhatia has finished inside the top 10 three times this season and he ranks 16th on the PGA TOUR in SG: Approach, which is a very encouraging sign with TPC Twin Cities up next. Of the last five winners at this venue, four have finished the tournament in the top eight in SG: Approach.
DraftKings $7,000 Range
Cameron Champ ($7,900)
Champ has flourished at TPC Twin Cities, finishing first, T16th, and T12th in his last three starts at the venue. Champ’s victory at TPC Twin Cities in 2021 was by two shots and he posted a tournament-low 8-under 63 in the final round of last year’s 3M Open. Champ has finished T27th or better in five of his last seven starts entering this week and he ranks fourth in Total Strokes Gained when we compare this field’s last 24 rounds. Champ has huge upside this week and he is underpriced for his potential.
Matt Wallace ($7,600)
When excluding his withdrawal from THE CJ Cup Byron Nelson, Wallace has only missed one cut in his last nine solo starts and five of these finishes have come inside the top 30. Wallace ranks ninth in total Strokes Gained when we analyze this field’s last 36 rounds, and he has never missed a cut in three appearances at TPC Twin Cities, including two top-30 finishes. Wallace’s +5500 odds to win the 3M Open on DraftKings Sportsbook are terrific for a player this cheap and he is compelling option for cash games.
Sam Stevens ($7,500)
Stevens has finished T10th and T64th in his two tries at TPC Twin Cities, and he has been very reliable this season, advancing to the weekend in 19 of his 22 solo starts, with eight top-30 finishes. Stevens finished T3rd at another TPC course, TPC Craig Ranch for THE CJ Cup Byron Nelson in May and he is a standout value play at only $7,500.
Jhonattan Vegas ($7,400)
Vegas has only missed one cut in his last eight starts, most notably with a T5 at the PGA Championship, which is the best major finish to date. Vegas now returns to TPC Twin Cities to defend his 3M Open title and last year isn’t the only time he has thrived at this par 71. In his previous start at TPC Twin Cities in 2021, Vegas finished runner-up by two strokes. Vegas ranks first in Strokes Gained per round at TPC Twin Cities among the players in this field that have competed at the track more than once and he is an easy choice for cash games at this affordable price point.
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DraftKings $6,000 and Below Range
Antoine Rozner ($6,900)
While competing overseas the last two weeks, Rozner finished T22nd at the Genesis Scottish Open and T59th at the Open Championship. The French professional has now advanced to the weekend in his last 13 solo starts. This is the fourth-longest active cut streak on the PGA TOUR and Rozner ranks 28th in SG: Approach this season. While this will be his debut at TPC Twin Cities, Rozner is an outstanding bet to at least make the cut this week.
Jackson Suber ($6,900)
Suber is underpriced for his form and he is an excellent bargain play, despite this being his first start at TPC Twin Cities. Suber finished seventh at last week’s Barracuda Championship, which is his third top-20 finish and fifth made cut in his last six starts. Suber has shot under par in 15 of his last 18 rounds -including a pair of 65s – and he ranks 20th in SG: Approach this season.
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Pictured: Sam Burns
Photo credit: Imagn