Fade the chalk!
When building your rosters in guaranteed prize pool tournaments (GPPs) for PGA DFS, projected ownership should factor into your lineup decisions in certain situations. That doesn’t mean you should never roster highly-owned golfers, but completely ignoring ownership can prove costly.
Having some contrarian plays in your lineup can improve your chances of winning a large GPP in PGA DFS contests.
Using the PGA DFS Contest Ownership Dashboard, we can clearly identify the golfers who are projected to be highly-owned at THE PLAYERS Championship. Let’s take a look at three of those players and evaluate which golfers could be great GPP pivot options with lower projected ownership.
While fading the chalk is always a good strategy in GPP’s, this week it is particularly important. TPC Sawgrass is extremely volatile and any player can miss the cut.
Note: All pricing via DraftKings.
Patrick Cantlay ($9,200)
Projected Ownership: 19.6%
Cantlay is super appealing this week. He is a Pete Dye specialist and that is one of the statistics I’m focused on heavily this week. The problem is he is shaping up to be the highest owned player in an absolutely loaded field. As good as he looks on paper this week, the golfers surrounding Cantlay have just as good of a chance to win this week as does.
Pivot Options:
- Daniel Berger ($8,800): 10% projected ownership — Berger is playing great golf and is an ideal course fit. His win equity is arguably equal to Cantlay at half of the ownership.
Abraham Ancer ($7,500)
Projected Ownership: 14%
Ancer is another Pete Dye specialist who people are really gravitating towards this week. In his past four starts he has two good finishes of 18th and 5th, but he also has two missed cuts. He is still a $7,500 golfer who is priced where he belongs in this field.
Considering all of the good players around him in this price range, 14% is an uncomfortable ownership number for me to play Abe this week.
Patrick Smith/Getty Images. Pictured: Abraham Ancer.
Pivot Options:
- Carlos Ortiz ($7,400): 2% projected ownership — Ortiz is coming in with basically no ownership and is a guy who consistently pops up on leaderboards. He is coming off a 15th-place finish at The Concession.
- Lanto Griffin ($7,300): 7% projected ownership — What does this guy have to do to get some love? Coming off back-to-back finishes in the top 22 in Florida where he has averaged over 3 strokes on approach in those starts.
Chris Kirk ($7,000)
Projected Ownership: 11%
I like Kirk, but double-digit ownership in this field is much too high on a golfer who priced at $7000 flat. There are many options surrounding him that have just as good of a chance of making the cut as he does.
Pivot Options:
- Ian Poulter ($7,100): 4% Projected Ownership — week.) Poults has made 13 cuts in 16 starts at TPC Sawgrass, including two second-place finishes.
- Ryan Moore ($6,800): 2% Projected Ownership — Moore is a Pete Dye specialist who has made 10 cuts in 13 starts at TPC Sawgrass including a T20 in 2019
Photo credit: Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images.
Pictured above: Patrick Cantlay.
