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PGA Championship: Top PGA DFS Picks, Values, and Sleepers for Large-Field GPPs on DraftKings

The PGA Championship is the second major of the season and provides a brilliant canvas for plenty of drama this weekend in Charlotte, North Carolina, at Quail Hollow Club. Unlike many major championship hosts, this week’s course will be very familiar to many of the players since it regularly hosts the Truist Championship. Quail Hollow also hosted the PGA Championship in 2017, when Justin Thomas emerged with the win.

It should be an awesome week for fantasy golf with an elite field on one of the hardest courses in the rotation. For all the details about the field, the course, the weather, and some key stats to track, check out this First Look from RotoGrinders.

Especially in large-field GPP tournaments, you’ll want to make sure to target players who have lower ownership projections than their potential performance.  Finding high-leverage plays is critical for GPP success, so the picks here go against the grain, looking for under-owned options.

All Strokes Gained metrics referenced are from the Rabbit Hole.

Usually, I rely heavily on the Strokes Gained Model in FantasyLabs, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean toward players who excel in Strokes Gained: Approach, which is more sustainable week-to-week than a hot putter.

Since these are GPP picks, we can accept more risk in exchange for getting a higher ceiling. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownership create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that often lead to large-field success. To find guidance for all contest types, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.

No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A few critical new stats for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.

As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.

Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.

Editor’s note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.

Become an All-Access Member Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models & projections

Data-driven analysis & tutorials
Become a PRO Member

High-Priced PGA DFS Picks

Note: FantasyLabs has partnered with Betsperts Golf and the Rabbit Hole! Sign up for the biggest database of golf stats available on the internet and get 25% off a yearly sub with our link! 

Unless otherwise noted, all Strokes Gained metrics referenced in this article come via the Rabbit Hole.

Tool Highlights

  • Build unlimited custom stat models with official PGA TOUR data.
  • Hundreds of filters to find the exact data split you’re looking for.
  • Save custom reports and run them again with next week’s field.
  • Download anything right to your computer with the click of a button.
  • See expert models each week.

Scottie Scheffler, $13,400

Partly due to his hefty salary, Scheffler is going underowned in our ownership projections. He only has the fifth-highest ownership projection on the board, but he has the highest Perfect% by a wide margin and the highest median, floor, and ceiling projections as well.

Another reason the public may be fading Scottie this week is that he’s making his course debut as an individual. He did play every session of the 2022 Presidents Cup, but has not competed in any other tournament at Quail Hollow. Especially compared to the impressive course history of Rory McIlroy, his lack of experience stands out.

However, the reasons to back Scottie are pretty obvious–when he’s on the top of his game, no one is better. He looked absolutely dominant in his most recent start, running away with THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson and tying the record for the fewest strokes in any PGA TOUR event in history.

While that runaway, wire-to-wire win was his first of the season, he has been near the top of the leaderboard all year with six top-10 finishes and nine top-25 finishes in his nine tournaments this season. Even if he doesn’t win, he always seems to finish near the top, which gives him a high floor to go with his high ceiling.

He leads the field in Total Strokes Gained, Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, and Strokes Gained: Approach over the last 30 rounds. He’s the man to beat if he’s at his best, and his low ownership projection makes him a great pay-up leverage spot for GPP lineups this week.

Collin Morikawa $10,400

Morikawa has the fifth-highest Perfect% and the third-highest SimLeverage in the field. He is working with a new caddie and continues to tweak some things, but he also remains extremely steady overall.

He has made the cut in all eight of his individual events this season with top-20 finishes in all but the RBC Heritage. He finished T17 at the Truist Championship last week, T14 at the Masters, and runner-up at both The Sentry and the Arnold Palmer Invitational earlier this season.

Over the last 30 rounds, he ranks third in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, fourth in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, and fifth in Total Strokes Gained. He has the tee-to-green game that makes him a great fit for Quail Hollow, where he finished T16 last season.

Morikawa won the PGA Championship in 2020 and posted two top-10 finishes in his four made cuts in four appearances since then. He has made the cut and finished T26 or better in eight of the last nine majors. If his putter cooperates even just a little, he has the potential to win any week on any course, and he has been at his best in difficult major championship conditions like we’ll have this week.

Now available: our PGA DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.

Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks

YOU MAY ALSO LIKE

The American Express Top PGA DFS Picks, Values and Sleepers for Large-Field GPPs on DraftKings The Farmers Insurance Open Top PGA DFS Picks, Values and Sleepers for Large-Field GPPs on DraftKings Valspar Championship: Top PGA DFS Picks, Values, and Sleepers for Large-Field GPPs on DraftKings PGA DFS: Top Cash Game Picks for the Mexico Open at Vidanta

The PGA Championship is the second major of the season and provides a brilliant canvas for plenty of drama this weekend in Charlotte, North Carolina, at Quail Hollow Club. Unlike many major championship hosts, this week’s course will be very familiar to many of the players since it regularly hosts the Truist Championship. Quail Hollow also hosted the PGA Championship in 2017, when Justin Thomas emerged with the win.

It should be an awesome week for fantasy golf with an elite field on one of the hardest courses in the rotation. For all the details about the field, the course, the weather, and some key stats to track, check out this First Look from RotoGrinders.

Especially in large-field GPP tournaments, you’ll want to make sure to target players who have lower ownership projections than their potential performance.  Finding high-leverage plays is critical for GPP success, so the picks here go against the grain, looking for under-owned options.

All Strokes Gained metrics referenced are from the Rabbit Hole.

Usually, I rely heavily on the Strokes Gained Model in FantasyLabs, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean toward players who excel in Strokes Gained: Approach, which is more sustainable week-to-week than a hot putter.

Since these are GPP picks, we can accept more risk in exchange for getting a higher ceiling. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownership create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that often lead to large-field success. To find guidance for all contest types, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.

No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A few critical new stats for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.

As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.

Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.

Editor’s note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.

Become an All-Access Member Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models & projections

Data-driven analysis & tutorials
Become a PRO Member

High-Priced PGA DFS Picks

Note: FantasyLabs has partnered with Betsperts Golf and the Rabbit Hole! Sign up for the biggest database of golf stats available on the internet and get 25% off a yearly sub with our link! 

Unless otherwise noted, all Strokes Gained metrics referenced in this article come via the Rabbit Hole.

Tool Highlights

  • Build unlimited custom stat models with official PGA TOUR data.
  • Hundreds of filters to find the exact data split you’re looking for.
  • Save custom reports and run them again with next week’s field.
  • Download anything right to your computer with the click of a button.
  • See expert models each week.

Scottie Scheffler, $13,400

Partly due to his hefty salary, Scheffler is going underowned in our ownership projections. He only has the fifth-highest ownership projection on the board, but he has the highest Perfect% by a wide margin and the highest median, floor, and ceiling projections as well.

Another reason the public may be fading Scottie this week is that he’s making his course debut as an individual. He did play every session of the 2022 Presidents Cup, but has not competed in any other tournament at Quail Hollow. Especially compared to the impressive course history of Rory McIlroy, his lack of experience stands out.

However, the reasons to back Scottie are pretty obvious–when he’s on the top of his game, no one is better. He looked absolutely dominant in his most recent start, running away with THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson and tying the record for the fewest strokes in any PGA TOUR event in history.

While that runaway, wire-to-wire win was his first of the season, he has been near the top of the leaderboard all year with six top-10 finishes and nine top-25 finishes in his nine tournaments this season. Even if he doesn’t win, he always seems to finish near the top, which gives him a high floor to go with his high ceiling.

He leads the field in Total Strokes Gained, Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, and Strokes Gained: Approach over the last 30 rounds. He’s the man to beat if he’s at his best, and his low ownership projection makes him a great pay-up leverage spot for GPP lineups this week.

Collin Morikawa $10,400

Morikawa has the fifth-highest Perfect% and the third-highest SimLeverage in the field. He is working with a new caddie and continues to tweak some things, but he also remains extremely steady overall.

He has made the cut in all eight of his individual events this season with top-20 finishes in all but the RBC Heritage. He finished T17 at the Truist Championship last week, T14 at the Masters, and runner-up at both The Sentry and the Arnold Palmer Invitational earlier this season.

Over the last 30 rounds, he ranks third in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, fourth in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, and fifth in Total Strokes Gained. He has the tee-to-green game that makes him a great fit for Quail Hollow, where he finished T16 last season.

Morikawa won the PGA Championship in 2020 and posted two top-10 finishes in his four made cuts in four appearances since then. He has made the cut and finished T26 or better in eight of the last nine majors. If his putter cooperates even just a little, he has the potential to win any week on any course, and he has been at his best in difficult major championship conditions like we’ll have this week.

Now available: our PGA DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.

Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks

YOU MAY ALSO LIKE

The American Express Top PGA DFS Picks, Values and Sleepers for Large-Field GPPs on DraftKings The Farmers Insurance Open Top PGA DFS Picks, Values and Sleepers for Large-Field GPPs on DraftKings Valspar Championship: Top PGA DFS Picks, Values, and Sleepers for Large-Field GPPs on DraftKings PGA DFS: Top Cash Game Picks for the Mexico Open at Vidanta

About the Author

Zach Thompson writes NBA, MLB, NFL, golf and soccer content for Fantasy Labs. Zach's fantasy experience dates all the way back to high school when he would manually tabulate fantasy football scores using Tuesday morning's newspaper. Even though he was raised on the island of Guam on the opposite side of the world, Zach is a hardcore Boston sports fan who loves playing fantasy sports in almost any format. He's always in search of a great bargain play and keeps a close eye out for rising talent that can provide leverage. Zach joined the FantasyLabs team in 2022 and is also a contributor for DraftKings Network.