The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday has a nine-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
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Top Play
Aleksander Barkov ($8,600 DraftKings, $9,300 FanDuel) vs. Montreal Canadiens
The Florida Panthers are in a team-friendly spot on Tuesday as they host a Montreal Canadiens squad spiraling towards regression. We’re projecting Aleksander Barkov as one of the best options available on Tuesday’s slate.
Barkov has taken on an increased role with the Panthers lately, playing above-average minutes in four straight games. He’s been effective at creating chances over that span, attempting 11 shots over his last three outings, with no fewer than three in any game. However, that hasn’t impacted his output yet, as Barkov has just two assists across those games.
Increased output should follow Barkov’s recent surge in production. We’re anticipating that to come against a Habs team that has foregone defensive zone coverage, allowing 19.7 high-danger chances per game across all strengths over their past six games.
Top Value
Joel Eriksson Ek ($4,900 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel) vs. Philadelphia Flyers
You wouldn’t know it from looking at their scores, but the Minnesota Wild have been on another level recently. Minny has outplayed their opponents in five of their past six, relying on structured play at both ends of the ice. Joel Eriksson Ek has been a big part of the Wild’s success and should continue his strong play against the Philadelphia Flyers.
Part of Eriksson Ek’s fantasy appeal is his play on both ends of the ice. The Swedish forward ranks fourth on the Wild in shots, second in high-danger chances, and seventh in scoring opportunities, despite starting just 49.1% of his shifts in the attacking zone. Eriksson Ek has a knack for getting the puck 200 feet to his opponent’s end but can also fill shooting lanes for blocked shots when needed.
Eriksson Ek is riding a three-game point streak into tonight’s contest. According to our projections, he rates as one of the most cost-effective options available and is worth including on both DFS platforms.
Wing
Top Play
Nikita Kucherov ($7,300 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel) vs. Carolina Hurricanes
Some talented wingers are available on tonight’s slate, but we landed on Nikita Kucherov of the Tampa Bay Lightning against the Carolina Hurricanes as our top play.
Circumstances favor the Lightning ahead of this Eastern Conference clash. The Canes are skating on the second night of a back-to-back after starting primary goalie Frederik Andersen last night, meaning Antti Raanta is the projected starter tonight. Kucherov has been relentless over his recent sample, delivering 16 shots on target but failing to find the back of the net. We like him to reverse that trend against suboptimal goaltending.
Analytically, Kucherov remains one of the best in the game, putting up the best Corsi rating and second-best expected goals-for percentage on the Bolts.
He’s due for a breakout performance.
Top Value
Luke Kunin ($2,600 DraftKings, $3,300 FanDuel) vs. Ottawa Senators
You’ll have to look way down the salary list to find our value play on the wing, as we endorse Luke Kunin as the best value on tonight’s slate.
The 24-year-old is used sparingly by the Predators but has been a big-time contributor over the last three games. Over that stretch, Kunin has tallied one goal on 11 shots, with three blocked shots. The Predators have acknowledged Kunin’s offensive upside by giving him time on the powerplay unit and starting him 52.2% of the time in the offensive zone on the team’s second line.
If you are looking for a true bargain, allowing more room to spend on top-end talent, and who wouldn’t with some of the top options available, then Kunin is the perfect complement as a value piece to the bottom half of your lineup.
Defense
Top Play
Roman Josi ($9,200 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel) vs. Ottawa Senators
One of those top-end talents that aren’t worth passing up tonight is Preds’ defenseman, Roman Josi. The former Norris Trophy winner has been on an otherworldly pace which should continue against the Ottawa Senators.
Josi heads into tonight’s non-conference matchup on the 13-game point streak. The amount of offense he’s been generating is truly impressive. The Swiss defender has 28 points, 51 shots, and 372.0 fantasy points over that span. Josi has elevated his status in the Norris Trophy race while also including himself in the Hart Trophy conversation.
Defense isn’t a priority for the Sens, and that’s been evident over their previous three outings, as teams have put up 79 scoring and 29 high-danger chances at five-on-five.
That’s not going to slow down Josi and the Preds.
Top Value
Esa Lindell ($3,600 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel) vs. Anaheim Ducks
The Dallas Stars are playing for their playoff lives right now, and they’ve turned to Esa Lindell to play a bigger role on the team. We’re expecting that to translate to more fantasy points against the Anaheim Ducks on Tuesday.
Lindell has played 23 or more minutes in four straight games and is starting to use that time to his advantage. The Finnish rearguard is coming off a five-shot performance but remains below his expected metrics so far this season. Lindell has been on the ice for 53 goals, below his expected total of 58.2, shifting his expected goals-for total below actual.
Reconciling those stats suggests that Lindell is due for a strong fantasy performance. We’re betting that comes against the Ducks tonight.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Marc-Andre Fleury ($8,400 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel) vs. Philadelphia Flyers
If there’s one team that stands above the rest offensively, it’s definitely not the Flyers, which means Marc-Andre Fleury should continue his honeymoon phase with his new team.
Fleury stopped 23 of 25 shots in his Wild debut against the Columbus Blue Jackets and stands to maintain that level of play behind the Wild’s impenetrable defense. Not once over their past nine games has an opponent attempted more than seven high-danger chances at five-on-five. Philadelphia is ineffective at creating offense, attempting more than nine high-danger chances just once over their past seven games. We’re not expecting them to have much luck in Minnesota.
Fleury and the Wild have shut down better offenses than the Flyers, making Fleury one of the top-rated goaltending options.
Top Value
Jacob Markstrom ($7,800 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) vs. Colorado Avalanche
Calgary Flames goaltender Jacob Markstrom‘s salary is impacted by his matchup against the Colorado Avalanche. Still, we like him to reach his fantasy ceiling in this crucial Western Conference matchup.
Markstrom has struggled over his recent stretch, posting below-average save percentages in four of his past five. Over that sample, he’s stopping 90.3% of shots, below his season-long average of 92.5%. Markstrom has been phenomenal at home, going 20-5-6 with a 92.4% save percentage and 2.02 goals-against average.
The Avs’ offense has fallen off a cliff recently, attempting five or fewer quality opportunities in three of their past four. The Flames play a structured defensive brand of hockey that could perpetuate that downturn.
All things considered, we like this spot for Markstrom and the Flames, highlighting him as a value play between the pipes.
Notable Stack
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
The Florida Panthers are a gifted offensive team, playing under ideal circumstances against the Montreal Canadiens tonight. Their fantasy upside is reflected in our projections, ranking them as a top stacking option.
Several forwards rank highly in our algorithm; however, we’ve landed on Aleksander Barkov and Claude Giroux as the forward combination worth building around. Barkov and Giroux skate on the top line and powerplay unit together and have built chemistry together early, combining for six points through Giroux’s first three games with the team. Defensively, the team has turned to MacKenzie Weegar in the absence of Aaron Ekblad. Weegar projects highly skating next to the Panthers’ best players. Sergei Bobrovsky is the projected starter and should improve on his five-game winning streak.
Betting market confidence is also high on the Panthers as they head into tonight’s contest as -400 favorites.
