The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday has a seven-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Center
Top Play
Sidney Crosby ($7,000 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel) at Ottawa Senators
The Senators come into this game playing well but still down multiple players on the forward side of their roster. On the flip side, we have a Penguins team with a first line that has accumulated 17-points now over their last three games. It’s a tough spot for a team like Ottawa, who has been better defensively this year than the general masses likely realize.
This is a long-winded way of saying we like Sidney Crosby, who rates out third in Ceiling Projections in the FantasyLabs Model. Crosby’s goal rate over the last 12 months tops all centers on this slate, and he’s still looking quite underpriced for his recent production on DraftKings given his huge Bargain Rating of 99%. Building around the Pittsburgh top center is an excellent way to begin healthy lineups.
Top Value
Boone Jenner ($5,300 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel – winger) at Buffalo Sabres
The Columbus Blue Jackets have scored four or more goals in five straight starts. Their offense has gotten a jolt from their top-line, which is anchored at center by Boone Jenner. Jenner rates out with the fourth-best Ceiling Projection on the entire slate at center today, which gives you an idea of just how good this match-up with Buffalo is.
Jenner has landed three or more SOG now in five of his last seven games and is trending in the top-10% at his position in short-term form in blocked shots + shots on goal. The Sabres are a terrific match-up as they allow the second-most SOG against per game and have allowed four or more goals against in five of their last seven starts.
Wing
Top Play
Mitchell Marner ($6,900 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel) vs. Calgary Flames
The Toronto first-line has been on absolute fire lately and is a near auto roster at this point whenever they’re on the slate. The production we’ve seen from Mitch Marner has actually made him a more valuable roster than Auston Matthews in many ways, as Marner’s salary is still being held under $7,000 on DraftKings. Marner’s much more expensive on Fanduel, but he’ll also come with less ownership there due to the match-up with Calgary. However, the Flames are on the tail-end of a back-to-back, and the Toronto top-line seems likely to catch them off-guard – at least in the early stages of the game.
Marner ranks behind just one winger today in pure Ceiling Projections and has now averaged 20.8 DraftKings points over his last 10-starts. He’s an easy way to get exposure to the Leafs’ offense and won’t stop you from stacking other expensive lines if you so choose.
Top Value
Patrik Laine ($4,500 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) at Buffalo Sabres
The Blue Jackets are going to be a popular theme in this article. Their top-line has been buzzing recently, and their main skaters are all available at excellent prices. Patrik Laine’s the pure definition of a streaky scorer and comes in streaking in a very good way with six goals in his last three games. Three multi-goal games in a row have vaulted him up the FantasyLabs Model to the point where he’s now top-10 in Player Ratings and Ceiling Projections.
You might think now is a good time to jump off the boat and let others chase the big games from the past, but the Blue Jackets face one of the weakest defensive teams in hockey in the Sabres. Laine and the Blue Jackets’ power-play has been improving of late, and the shot volume alone that the Sabres allow could mean Laine pays off at this price.
Defense
Top Play
Zach Werenski ($6,100 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel) at Buffalo Sabres
Let’s keep the Blue Jackets theme running at defense, where Zach Werenski ranks as one of the top plays on this slate. Werenski is goal-less in more than 10-games now, but the offensive defenseman has a solid career shooting average and certainly seems destined for some positive regression in that area soon.
The Blue Jackets power play quarterback is averaging a solid 4.5 blocked shots + shots on goal per game and comes in ranked second in overall Ceiling Projections on the slate. Unlike many of the Blue Jackets players, Werenski is a better bargain on FanDuel, where he’s barely above 6k and has a better Bargain Rating. Using him provides great correlation with whichever top-line Blue Jackets forwards you insert, making Werenski an easy target.
Top Value
Dmitry Orlov ($3,500 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel) at Montreal Canadiens
The Canadiens are on the docket for the Capitals, which means everyone on that roster gets a boost today. Montreal has somehow allowed 33 goals against over their last five games alone and sets up as a bottom-five team in every major defensive category. The Capitals will be without Alex Ovechkin today, which means we could see players like Dmitry Orlov shoot the puck a little more too.
Orlov has produced like a great value wherever he’s been priced under $4,000 on DraftKings and has now averaged 3.7 blocked shots + shots on goal per game over his last 10-starts. That kind of production is hard to come by at these levels, and Orlov’s consistency is also nearly unmatched at this range. Overall, he’s averaging a stout 9.4 DraftKings points over that same span of starts. He also rates out as the top play under $5,000 on FanDuel in the Ceiling Projections and is an excellent source of value on defense for any format.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Tristan Jarry ($8,200 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel) at Ottawa Senators
The Penguins Tristan Jarry got back on track in his last start, stopping 42 of 44 shots faced and producing over 32 DraftKings points in a huge win over Boston. Jarry has actually been better on the road this year too, where he features a .929 save percentage.
The odds tonight also say paying up for Jarry is a good idea as Pittsburgh sits at -225 on the money line and is the second-biggest favorite on this slate. Jarry is one of the pricier goalies on DraftKings, but we often see goalies there approach $8,500 in spots like these. He’s a fine pay-up target on both sites and ranks out extremely well in the FantasyLabs Model today.
Top Value
Frederick Anderson ($7,500 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel) at Boston Bruins
While Frederick Anderson is actually more expensive on FanDuel than Jarry, his price on DraftKings makes him a great value target. The odds today suggest this is a risky spot, as the Hurricanes are just -137 favorites against Boston, but the Bruins have a multitude of things working against them, including the loss of Brad Marchand for multiple games.
Anderson has been solid all year, especially on the road, where he’s posted a .927 save percentage. The odds may say he shouldn’t be over $8,000 in salary in a spot like this, but the projections on FantasyLabs have him as the number one ranked goalie on the slate, making him a good contrarian target in GPPs.
Notable Stack
Penguins L1 – Crosby – Rust – Guentzel
Blue Jackets L1 – Jenner – Laine – Nyquist
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
As mentioned above, it’s excellent spots for both the Penguins and Blue Jackets top lines today. These two lines popped up first and second when we ran the FantasyLabs Stacking Tool via the Projected Points Model, and all of the players involved in these two lines should be high on your target lists today. The Penguins first-line has some of the best correlation in NHL DFS, while the Blue Jackets give us some of the best value available on DraftKings.
For Columbus, we have to decide if we want to use just Laine and Jenner together (who get power-play minutes together as well) or pair them with Nyquist, who is suddenly trending as a near point per game player of late and available at well under $4,000 on DraftKings. The better upside may be to use Zach Werenski, who sets up as a great target against the seventh-worst penalty-kill in the Sabres.
