The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
This is the first Saturday slate of the season, and we have a dozy of a 12-game schedule. It’s slated to kick off at 7:00 pm ET.
Center
Top Play
Vincent Trochek ($5,300 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel) vs. Nashville Predators
This slate does present us with a couple of top-priced centers, but with so many games on the schedule, there’s also value to be had in the creamy middle. Enter Vincent Trochek, who comes in at under $5,500 on DraftKings and just $5,600 on FanDuel, where he rates out with an 83% Bargain Rating in the FantasyLabs Models.
This year, the Carolina center is manning an elite line and has the talented Andrei Svechnikov on his wing. While often thought of as the No. 2 center in Carolina, he’s gets elite first unit powerplay exposure and saw over 20-minutes of ice in the opener (4 SOG).
The long-term numbers like him too. He grades out with the fifth-highest Ceiling Projection and Median Projection on the night on FanDuel and the third-highest on DraftKings. Carolina’s 2.8 implied puck total isn’t huge, but they are facing the Predators, who already featured the third-worst penalty-kill in the league last year and allowed two powerplay goals on two opportunities to the expansion Kraken in their first game.
Whether you consider him a value or a stud, Trochek is a top play at center here on a night where we should definitely go looking to for underpriced players at all positions.
Top Value
Jeff Carter ($5,400 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel) vs. Chicago Blackhawks
Much like Trochek, Carter can fit the bill as a top or value tonight and makes the case that we don’t necessarily need to spend all our money at center. The 36-year-old has seen elite usage through a couple of games and skated over 22 minutes in the Penguins 5-4 OT loss to the Panthers while collecting a powerplay goal and eight SOG.
The Penguins’ depth chart (Crosby and Malkin on IR) means they have no choice but to ride the veteran skating on the top power-play unit and still has an elite offensive defenseman in Kris Letang along with solid wingers like Jake Guentzel.
Carter’s projections aren’t as big as the median and ceiling is on Trochek, which is ultimately why he’s in the value slot. The FantasyLabs Models certainly recognizes the opportunity as they do have him with a top-five rating on both sites tonight. Despite the injury issues, the Penguins have a big implied team total here of 3.5 goals and play the Blackhawks, who were bottom-five in penalty-kill efficiency and shits allowed last year.
For GPPs, his ownership will likely be high as a result, but for cash games, his 2.91 SOG and match-up make him an elite play here.
Wing
Top Play
David Pastrnak ($8,000 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel) vs. Dallas Stars
The Bruins finally get their season off to races on Saturday, and that means we can start chasing the big game upside of David Pastrnak again. Despite a matchup with the Stars here, Pastrnak rates out as the winger to own tonight and someone we can look to fit in quite easily given the availability of players in the mid-tier at center.
We do have a nice handful of elite wingers to chase here, so we should be picky, but besides the fact he leads the Ceiling and Median Projections at wing here, his specifics should also make us confident. He’s second in shots per game over the last 12-months and has the best Projected Plus/Minus (His projected points minus his salary-based expectations) in the FantasyLabs Models tonight of any player ranked $6,000 or more on DraftKings.
The Boston powerplay (10th-best last year) could be an absolute monster this year with a full season of a healthy Charlie McAvoy and Taylor Hall. Pastrnak’s a roster here right out of the gate vs. a Stars team which features one of the worst goalie tandems in the league.
Top Value
Nino Niederreiter ($2,600 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel) vs. Nashville Predators
The nice thing about these big slates is that when we go looking for a solid play, regardless of the price-point we’re at, we can find one. Nino Niederreiter really has no business being near the absolute minimum on DraftKings today, but he’s there anyway.
The winger is playing on a third line beside Jared Staal to start the year but is seeing solid usage, not just at even strength (he skated over 14 minutes in game one) but is also a part of the second powerplay unit for Carolina, a team that ranked second in powerplay efficiency last year.
As you can guess, Niederreiter has a great rating in the Projected Points Model (for DraftKings), which clearly loves his price and has him in the number two slot, overall, in ratings at his position. He’s not even a slouch over on FanDuel, though, where he’d make for more of a contrarian stacking target with the aforementioned Staal in GPPs.
While he’s more of a DraftKings target, Niederreiter’s price made him someone that needed some attention for this Saturday.
Defense
Top Play
Charlie McAvoy ($5,200 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel) vs. Dallas Stars
While most of the Bruins’ top players all have their regular, bigger salaries attached to them tonight, Charlie McAvoy stands out as the one Bruin stud we can still get a real bargain on. The blueliner will start the season as the de facto No. 1 defenseman on Boston, especially after signing a massive eight-year 76-million dollar extension just a day ago. While he was still often ceding top power-play time to Matt Grzelcyk last season, the Bruins seem ready to let McAvoy take the reins here early in the year.
He enters this game already, averaging over 1.5 blocked shots and shots on goal per game, and is one of only five defensemen on the slate to have a CorsiFor over 20.00. If he keeps pulling the powerplay one duties, we should see some of these numbers rise on McAvoy as the season progresses as well.
Like our top center picks, McAvoy’s big attraction is price here, and that’s reflected in the Points Projection Model, which has him as the second best-rated player on defense today. He’s a great overall play and a great stacking target to go with your elite Boston forwards.
Top Value
Miro Heiskanen ($3,400 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel) vs. Dallas Stars
Miro Heiskanen is yet another player who looks somewhat criminally underpriced here on this massive slate. The defenseman has started the season on the second pairing but is handling first-line power-play duties to begin the year. That role may change throughout the year, but Heiskanen certainly sets up as a potential workhorse for the Stars this year, who skated him over 26 minutes in the opener, where he grabbed a goal and assist on the powerplay
He doesn’t rate as a massive bargain on FanDuel, but we can still use him there as a part of contrarian Stars stacks as well. He’s got the seventh-best overall rating in the Projected Points Model for DraftKings and is a player we should see a rise in the projections as the season progresses.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Connor Hellebuyck ($7,600 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel) vs. San Jose Sharks
The Jets are coming off a miserable game one where they dropped a 4-1 game to the Ducks. Connor Hellebuyck is in a good spot to bounce back quickly vs. a Sharks team that isn’t very good at converting their chances. San Jose attempted over 30 SOG per game last year (which put them average in that stat), yet ranked sixth last in goals per game. Not much has changed about the San Jose roster to get us excited, and they’ll also be without their best goal-scorer in Evander Kane to start the year.
Hellebuyck and the Jets rate out as just small -128 favorites in the Vegas odds, but the former Vezina winner still comes in third in the ratings for the Projected Points Model of the entire slate on Fanduel. He’s a better bargain tonight, though on DraftKings, and the Jets do seem somewhat underrated here, coming off just one loss.
For a small road favorite, Hellebuyck rates out extremely well here and offers a nice blend of upside and savings tonight, where we’ll likely need the kind of upside he can provide to take down any big-field GPPs.
Top Value
Frederik Andersen ($7,300 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel) vs. Nashville Predators
Frederik Anderson and the Canes come into this Saturday slate at basically a pick’em (-111) with Nashville. The Canes new netminder only posted a .896 save percentage in his first game as a Hurricane but benefitted from an offense that produced six goals.
That could be a big theme this season as the Canes offense once again looks like it will be one of the best in the league. On the other side of this game, the Predators enter here with just a 2.8 implied goal total, and we have an over/under of 5.5 goals attached to this game.
If we think the Canes forwards are in a decent spot here because of the weak penalty-kill of the Predators, then we can also think about using Anderson either with some of them or even on his own (and leverage against the people stacking against Nashville). We likely don’t need to worry about the ownership on the Canes skaters too much on this big slate, but their edge in skill should give us a better chance at a win.
Notable Stacks
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
Carolina Line 2/PP1
As mentioned above, we’re getting some great prices on the elite duo of Vincent Trochek and Andrei Svechnikov in this game against Nashville. Both men will see time together at even strength but will also occupy the PP1 unit together too. We can think about using Teuvo Teravainen here along with the duo, but I don’t mind targeting Tony DeAngelo for some value and extra power-play exposure.
DeAngelo is slated in as the quarterback on the Canes PP1 for now and had an insanely productive first game, landing two assists and five SOG in just under 17-minutes of ice. The weaker Nashville penalty-kill is worth attacking here with a Canes power-play stack that also rated out well in the Points Projection model for tonight.
