The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday has a six-game main slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or are Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Center
Top Play
Mika Zibanejad ($6,900 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets
The New York Rangers are looking for their first win on home ice, and they’re in a good spot against the Columbus Blue Jackets on Friday night. That sets Mika Zibanejad up to increase his team-leading points total.
Zibanejad has an impressive 64.5% expected goals-for percentage, thanks to his dominant relative metrics. The 28-year-old has been on the ice for 32 high-danger chances, ranking second on the team, and 84 scoring chances, third-best on the team, while controlling possession and registering a team-leading 21 shots. He spends time quarterbacking the Rangers’ top powerplay unit, with two of his five assists coming with the man advantage, and Zibanejad spends more time on the ice than any other Rangers forward.
All signs point towards an impressive evening from Zibanejad, and that’s reflected in the FantasyLabs projections, which rate him with one of the best ceilings on the docket.
Top Value
Jordan Staal ($3,600 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel) vs. Chicago Blackhawks
Any team facing the Chicago Blackhawks has looked impressive this season. We’re expecting no different tonight when the Carolina Hurricanes host them on the first night of a back-to-back.
The Hawks allowed three goals in their last outing, which was their best start of the season. Otherwise, Marc-Andre Fleury and Kevin Lankinen had combined to allow 27 goals in their first six games. Jordan Staal has been part of a balanced Canes attack and will have time and space to make meaningful fantasy contributions tonight. Staal checks all the boxes, strong relative metrics, powerplay time, and he accumulates points with shots and blocks as well. He’s recorded three shots on net in each of his past three games and should break through with a big fantasy performance.
Staal is running hot, has an expected goals-for percentage of 54.1%, and his salary is on the low-end of the spectrum, making him our value play at center.
Wing
Top Play
Alex Ovechkin ($8,500 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel) vs. Arizona Coyotes
Karel Vejmelka will find out the hard way that there’s no way of preparing for an Alex Ovechkin one-timer.
The Washington Capitals play the Arizona Coyotes on Friday night, which will prolong the Yotes’ tough start to the season. Arizona has allowed 11 or more high-danger chances in four of their past six games and will have to contend with slowing down a Capitals attack that has recorded 22 goals over the past five games. Washington has attempted at least 11 high-danger chances in five straight games, and Ovi has been individually responsible for seven high-danger and 31 scoring chances this season. Ovechkin’s biggest advantage comes on the powerplay, as the Yotes have an atrocious penalty kill rate of 44.4%.
Teams have a hard enough time slowing down Ovechkin, and there are several factors working against the Coyotes tonight. Ovi’s salary is steep, but he rates among the best on tonight’s DFS slate and is a top play at wing.
Top Value
Reilly Smith ($4,900 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel) vs. Anaheim Ducks
The Vegas Golden Knights host the Anaheim Ducks on the second night of a back-to-back, which means we should see big things from their offense.
Reilly Smith continues to figure prominently throughout the Knights lineup and should figure into the scoring on Friday night. The right-winger has accumulated 17 shots over his past four outings but only has one goal to show for his effort, which was a game-winning, short-handed tally against the Colorado Avalanche. Smith’s supporting metrics are strong, and he fills the stat sheet night in and night out.
This salary represents a fraction of Smith’s value, and he’s set up for a big performance tonight against the Ducks.
Defense
Top Play
Shea Theodore ($6,000 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel) vs. Anaheim Ducks
The Knights’ top two defensive pairings are deployed nearly equally, but Shea Theodore’s salary is somewhat lower than Alex Pietrangelo’s. It’s on that basis that Theodore is our top play on defense.
Theodore is a swiss army knife for the Knights, being used across any circumstance. He blocks shots on the penalty kill, puts shots on net, and plays with the team’s top line. Theodore is tied for the team lead for points among defensemen with three, and he’ll have opportunities to shine against the Ducks tonight. Relative to Pietrangelo, Theodore creates more shots, scoring, and high-danger chances while getting fewer starts in the offensive zone. Consequently, Theodore has more fantasy points than his defensive counterpart this season.
Objectively, Theodore has been a more effective fantasy producer than Pietrangelo, but that’s not yet reflected in their salaries. Theodore is the defenseman to roster on Friday night.
Top Value
Jacob Trouba ($4,400 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets
Adam Fox is the focal point on defense for the Rangers, and rightfully so. But that has allowed Jacob Trouba to slot into an effective spot on the team’s second pairing.
Trouba contributes across all strengths for the Rangers, averaging the second-most fantasy points among Rangers defensemen. The former Winnipeg Jet has a similar ceiling to defensemen with salaries thousands of dollars more than his but gets powerplay time and has better advanced metrics than most, including Fox. Trouba out-paces Fox in expected goals-for percentage at five-on-five, creating more chances and allowing fewer.
There’s a steep drop-off in Trouba’s salary, but you’ll get similar if not better production from the veteran d-man. There’s no overlooking Trouba’s value tonight.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Igor Shesterkin ($7,900 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets
The Rangers’ primary goalie, Igor Shesterkin, is set up for a good showing against the Blue Jackets on Friday.
Shesterkin is coming in off a down outing and should bounce back at home. The Russian netminder is stopping 93.3% of shots this season through his first five starts and is above-average in high-danger save percentage and powerplay save percentage. Shesterkin will be protected by the Rangers’ effective defensive zone coverage and won’t face a plethora of shots from a Blue Jackets squad that has put up eight or fewer high-danger chances in three of their past five. Columbus has just five goals at five-on-five over that span, with three of those coming in their most recent outing.
The Jackets offense has been unimpressive this season, and Shesterkin will be up to the challenge. He rates near the top of FantasyLabs Median, Ceiling, and Floor projections.
Top Value
Anton Forsberg ($7,300 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) vs. Dallas Stars
Anton Forsberg is one of the most affordable options on the DFS slates tonight, rates in the middle of the FantasyLabs projections.
The Dallas Stars have been one of the worst-performing teams offensively this season. The Stars haven’t mustered more than a 6.3% shooting percentage at five-on-five in any of their games, sitting with the second-worst shooting percentage overall. Forsberg looked sharp in his first outing and will progress after a subpar outing against the Washington Capitals. The Stars have attempted more than eight high-danger chances at five-on-five in just one of their last six games. It’s worth noting that Forsberg has a 92.2% save percentage against the Stars in his career and should see his metrics progress towards career averages.
Forsberg has one of the best bargain ratings in our projections and is worth a flyer if you need a low-cost goalie.
Notable Stack
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
After highlighting several Rangers throughout our DFS Breakdown, it’s no surprise that we’re going with the New York stack. There are a number of combinations to peruse, but we’re sticking with Zibanejad up the middle. You can pair him with linemate Chris Kreider at wing, as the two forwards are among the best Rangers’ forwards and near the top of our projections. Although we highlighted Trouba earlier, one of the optimum stacks includes Fox on defense. Lastly, Shesterkin is in a good spot and should be in line for a win after a cohesive Rangers effort.
One indicator we always look for in our stacks is betting market confidence, and the Rangers have that support. New York is priced as -188 favorites against their division rivals and should get their first win on home ice this season.
