The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday has a six-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Center
Top Play
Nathan MacKinnon ($9,200 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel) vs. Philadelphia Flyers
Somehow the Philadelphia Flyers are going to have to pick up the pieces after a 7-1 shellacking at the hands of Tampa Bay Lightning last night. That’s not going to be easy against Nathan MacKinnon and the Colorado Avalanche.
MacKinnon has elevated his output over his recent sample, recording six points over his previous three games with two multi-point outings. The 26-year-old is making the most of his time on the Avs’ top line and powerplay unit, with four of MacKinnon’s 16 points coming on the man advantage and 78.0% of his starts coming in the offensive zone.
The Flyers are in shambles right now, while MacKinnon is starting to find his goal scoring stride. He’s the top play up the middle on tonight’s slate.
Top Value
Bo Horvat ($5,100 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel) vs. Los Angeles Kings
The Bruce Boudreau era in starts tonight when the Vancouver Canucks host the Los Angeles Kings on the second night of a back-to-back. We like the Canucks to respond and Bo Horvat to lead the charge.
Boudreau has a good track record of getting the most out of his players in the regular season, and Horvat is a player who could thrive in a new system. The Canucks’ captain sits fourth on the team in expected goals-for percentage, while being on the ice for the second-most scoring chances and third-most high-danger chances among Canucks forwards. Horvat is slightly below expected totals, but should see an increase in output over his coming games.
The Kings have been giving up a lot of chances recently, and Horvat stands to be the beneficiary on Monday night. Horvat is our top value play at center.
Wing
Top Play
Mikko Rantanen ($8,800 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel) vs. Philadelphia Flyers
The Avs’ offense runs through their top line and, naturally, it makes sense to include our top option at center with his winger, Mikko Rantanen.
Rantanen has better advanced metrics than MacKinnon, posting 67.3% expected goals-for rating across all strengths, ranking among the league’s elite in scoring and high-danger chances. Despite the ongoing success analytically, Rantanen has been stymied over his recent stretch, recording just one assist over his past three contests. The 25-year-old continues to get opportunities in the attacking zone and is due for a breakout performance.
He comes at a discounted rate relative to his center, but Rantanen should find a way to surpass his median projections against the Flyers tonight.
Top Value
Alexander Radulov ($3,200 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel) vs. Arizona Coyotes
Often times there are discrepancies between what DraftKings and FanDuel have for players’ salaries. And Alexander Radulov comes at an extremely discounted rate on DK slates tonight.
The Russian winger remains an elite producer for the Dallas Stars. Radulov ranks sixth in expected goals-for percentage on the Stars, playing the fourth-most minutes on the powerplay and starting 67.2% of his shifts in the attacking zone. Radulov has been trending in the right direction over his recent sample, attempting two or more shots in five of his past seven outings, but he has yet to breakthrough with a strong fantasy showing. That could come at home against one of the worst teams in the league.
Radulov rates highly in our projections, but that is not reflected in his salary tonight. He’s a value play on both platforms tonight.
Defense
Top Play
Miro Heiskanen ($6,500 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel) vs. Arizona Coyotes
There is another Stars’ player who projects well tonight — top defenseman Miro Heiskanen.
The Stars continue to rely on Heiskanen under any circumstance. The Finnish defender skates on the Stars powerplay and penalty kill, leading the team in powerplay points and ranking second on the team in blocked shots. Heikanen’s advanced metrics across all strengths are impacted by the time he spends on the penalty kill, but he continues to underproduce at five-on-five. His on-ice PDO is 0.986, implying that Heiskanen is a candidate for positive regression.
Heiskanen accumulates fantasy points on both ends of the ice, but doesn’t get the recognition he deserves for what he brings to the table. Without question, Heiskanen is a top play on the blue line.
Top Value
Oliver Ekman-Larsson ($4,400 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel) vs. Los Angeles Kings
Oliver Ekman-Larsson has been a steadying force on the Canucks backend, but does not have the gaudy offensive stats illustrating his contributions. We like Ekman-Larsson as a breakout candidate tonight against the Kings.
Although OEL’s relative metrics across all strengths are below 50.0%, there are a couple of important factors worth considering. First, the veteran defenseman starts only 42.2% of his shifts in the offensive zone. Second, Ekman-Larsson spends an average of 2:15 minutes on the penalty kill per game. Still, his actual output remains substantially below expected values and his on-ice PDO of 0.966 ranks 15th on the team.
The Canucks are primed for a good performance tonight and OEL should factor into the scoring.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Braden Holtby ($8,400 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel) vs. Arizona Coyotes
Few things impact a goaltender’s fantasy value like a meeting with the Arizona Coyotes. Matchup notwithstanding, Braden Holtby has found his rhythm playing with the Stars this season.
After a couple of down years, we’re starting to see improved play from Holtby. The veteran netminder has a 92.7% save percentage, with his powerplay, even strength, and high-danger save percentages above career norms. That has resulted in 4.8 goals saved above average through Holtby’s first 11 games of the season, and his best adjusted goals-against average since his William Jennings-winning season in 2016-17.
Holtby won’t face an onslaught from the Coyotes tonight, setting the stage for another strong performance from the former Vezina winner.
Top Value
Thatcher Demko ($7,800 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel) vs. Los Angeles Kings
Thatcher Demko remains below career averages this season, but a change in philosophy behind the bench may afford him a chance to get his season back on track.
Despite the subpar early-season showings, Demko still rates highly in our projections. The situation favors the Canucks tonight as they host the Kings on the second night of a back-to-back with travel. Additionally, Demko has been much better at home this season, posting a 91.8% save percentage in his friendly confines, compared to 89.9% as the visitor.
The Canucks are performing below expected and improved play from Demko will go a long way to helping them reach their potential.
Notable Stack
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
We are highlighting a Canucks stack tonight for the same reasons that we liked the Winnipeg Jets stack yesterday. Vancouver is in an ideal spot on home-ice taking on a team playin their second game in as many nights. More importantly, the Canucks are underachieving relative to their metrics and are a positive regression candidate.
The stack we are highlighting features three players already discussed. Horvat, Ekman-Larsson, and Demko are integral pieces at their respective positions and all three are playing below expected values. You can add a number of Canucks forwards to the mix to formulate an ideal stack, however, we are including Connor Garland.
Garland started off tremendously with the Canucks but has landed in a bit of a lull over his recent games. Garland skates on the top line with Horvat while also seeing time on the Nucks powerplay.
The Canucks are modestly priced home favorites, but we like their chances against the Kings tonight.
