Every week in Three Breakout Players we highlight a few inexpensive players on the verge of earth-shattering fantasy football breakouts. Or, less ambitiously, we discuss players set up to exceed expectations at low ownership.
RB Kenyan Drake, Dolphins: $4,000 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel
The Dolphins made an unexpected change to their league-worst offense at the trade deadline, sending starting running back Jay Ajayi to the Eagles, opening up an opportunity for second-year back Kenyan Drake. Damien Williams, also in the mix for touches, has handled third-down duties for could be the preferred option in short-yardage scenarios. Although neither player has impressed through seven games, the potential increase in volume makes both of them intriguing, and the early reports suggest that Drake may have the inside track to more playing time.
At 6’1” and 210 pounds, Drake in college did not fit the traditional archetype of the Nick Saban back at Alabama. Playing behind Eddie Lacy, T.J. Yeldon, and Derrick Henry, Drake saw relatively few opportunities as a runner, but he excelled as a receiver and kick returner with his 4.45 speed. His largest carry total came as a sophomore, as he logged 92 rushes for 692 yards and an NCAA-leading 7.5 yards per carry. After a gruesome leg injury as a junior, Drake returned as a senior only to be in the shadows of Henry’s Heisman season, accruing just a 12.9 percent Dominator Rating. While Drake’s counting stats over his four-year career aren’t eye-popping, his per-touch efficiency numbers were impressive, as he averaged 6.4 yards per carry and 12.4 yards per reception.
Miami is a +2.5 underdog this week, hosting Oakland on Sunday Night Football. After scoring zero points on Thursday Night Football last week, the Dolphins offense has nowhere to go but up and could benefit from the extra time to prepare and rest. The Dolphins have a favorable matchup with the Raiders, who are giving up the ninth-most (26.0) DraftKings and eighth-most (22.3) FanDuel points per game to running backs. Drake’s volatility makes him strictly a tournament-only option, especially on FanDuel, where he has a 95 percent Bargain Rating in our Models.
WR Curtis Samuel, Panthers: $3,100 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel
Curtis Samuel spent his first two seasons at Ohio State behind Ezekiel Elliott before becoming the focal point of the Buckeye offense in 2016. A dual-threat playmaker resembling Randall Cobb and Percy Harvin, Samuel rushed for 771 yards and caught 74 passes for 865 yards, scoring 15 total touchdowns. Entering the NFL draft as a wide receiver, he ran a blazing 4.31-second 40-yard dash, second only to John Ross, who set a combine record with his 4.22.
Samuel has been slow to develop in his rookie season after missing almost all of training camp with a hamstring injury. Thus far he has been a rotational player for the Panthers, seeing just 14 targets on a 27 percent snap share, but with the recent trade of Kelvin Benjamin to Buffalo there are now 6.5 targets per game unaccounted for in Carolina. The team has stated that the offense needs a speed element, as they miss the field-stretching ability of Ted Ginn. With Benjamin gone, Samuel will likely have a chance to showcase his playmaking ability not just as a slot receiver in three-receiver sets but also as an outside receiver opposite Devin Funchess.
The Panthers are -0.5 favorites this week at home against the Falcons, whose pass defense ranks 25th in Football Outsiders’ Defensive-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). With the run game struggling — quarterback Cam Newton has led the team in rushing the last two games — the Panthers may find more success attacking the Falcons through the air. Samuel’s explosive upside makes him an attractive tournament play as a contrarian stacking option with Newton.
Gerald Everett, Rams TE: $2,600 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel
Not mentioned enough in regard to the stellar rookie tight end class of 2017, Gerald Everett deserves to be in the conversation. Everett was dominant in his two seasons at Southern Alabama, logging 90 receptions for 1,292 yards and 12 touchdowns. A phenomenal athlete at 6’3” and 239 pounds, Everett fits the mold of a proper move tight end at the NFL level with his 120.1 (83rd percentile) SPARQ-x Score (PlayerProfiler).
Everett has been in and out of the lineup this season, and he is still technically behind Tyler Higbee on the depth chart, but he has flashed in limited opportunity with a 39-yard reception in Week 1 and 69-yard reception in Week 2. The Rams rank second in offensive DVOA and quarterback Jared Goff has spread the targets around, giving Everett opportunities in high leverage situations. His four red zone targets are second among Rams pass catchers, and he has seen all of them in the last four games.
The Rams travel to New York as -2.5 favorites to face the Giants, who have given up the most FanDuel (15.2) and second-most DraftKings (18.2) points per game to tight ends. The Giants have also allowed the most touchdowns to the position. Priced near the minimum, Everett is a potential punt play in tournaments.
Good luck this week, and be sure to visit our suite of Tools to research other potential breakout players.
News Updates
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