Every week in Three Breakout Players we highlight a few inexpensive players on the verge of earth-shattering fantasy football breakouts. Or, less ambitiously, we discuss players set up to exceed production expectations at low ownership. This week, we feature three players who are ready to ignite a smoldering fire of opportunity into a high usage, production firestorm in week 4. For more of our weekly football content, visit our NFL homepage.
Josh Doctson, Washington WR: $4,000 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel
Josh Doctson is a well-tuned guitar hitting all the notes of a breakout NFL wide receiver. At 6’2″ and 202 pounds, Doctson is a beautifully terrifying size-adjusted athlete, evidenced by an exceptional 135.2 (97th percentile) Burst Score and a 10.36 (96th percentile) Catch Radius on PlayerProfiler.com. Unfortunately, Doctson was the oldest rookie receiver in the 2016 NFL draft, but (much like Kenny Golladay) Doctson was a playmaker at a small school (Wyoming) at age 18 before transferring to TCU and redshirting a year per NCAA rules. At TCU, Doctson continued his high level of production, achieving a 38.6 percent (75th percentile) College Dominator Rating while posting 78 receptions, 1,326 yards, and 14 touchdowns in just 10 games as a senior.
Doctson has been snake-bitten by injuries since he entered the NFL, costing him the majority of his rookie season and precious practice time this offseason. Unable to develop trust and rapport with his teammates and coaches, Doctson was relegated to a rotational role early in the season, splitting third receiver duties with Ryan Grant. However, Doctson’s snaps have increased from 32 percent (Week 1) to 41 percent (Week 2) to 52.9 percent (Week 3). When targeted, Doctson is delivering splash plays, most recently reeling in a 52-yard contested catch for a touchdown in Week 3 against the Raiders.
While Doctson’s Week 3 touchdown was his only catch — and savvy fantasy players never chase touchdowns — Terrelle Pryor is struggling and Jordan Reed is injured (again). Doctson’s sublime prospect profile suggests that he has the ability to parlay his rising snap share and become the focal point of Washington’s offense. Making big plays in high-leverage situations should catch the attention of the Washington coaching staff, and promoting Doctson to the starting lineup would provide Washington an optimal talent configuration at the receiver positions with their most athletic playmakers outside and Jamison Crowder in the slot. Furthermore, Doctson at TCU showed the versatility to move from split end to flanker to slot depending on the game situation.
Washington is a -7.0 underdog on the road at Kansas City on Monday night. With a 49.5-point over/under, the game should afford Doctson the opportunity to earn more targets, making him a viable dart throw in guaranteed prize pools.
Joe Mixon, Bengals RB: $5,700 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel
Joe Mixon was touted by draftniks as a big running back with patience, nimble feet, and slick route-running and pass-catching ability. Some people had him as the top running back in the 2017 NFL draft. With an all-terrain skill set and elite analytics-based comparables such as Le’Veon Bell and Ezekiel Elliott, Mixon looks like the next evolution of NFL running back.
Mixon wowed evaluators at his pro day. Running a 4.50-second forty-yard dash at 6’1″ and 228 pounds, Mixon has a 111.2 (91st percentile) Speed Score on PlayerProfiler.com. Although he was efficient in all phases at Oklahoma, it is fair to wonder what Mixon’s college numbers would have looked like if he had been a full-time running back. Sharing backfield touches with fellow rookie and Oklahoma’s all-time leading rusher Samaje Perine, Mixon achieved a 24.7 percent (43rd percentile) dominator rating while besting his teammate in yards per touch 8.0 to 6.1. Mixon shines as a receiver, as he commanded an 11.7 (81st percentile) target share and posted 65 receptions for 894 yards and nine touchdowns in his two seasons at Oklahoma.
In the big picture, Mixon’s size, speed, and production comps are intoxicating.
| Player | Height (Inches) | Weight | College YPC | College Dominator Rating | College Target Share | 40-Yard Dash |
| Joe Mixon | 73 | 228 lbs | 6.8 | 24.70% | 11.70% | 4.50 |
| Todd Gurley | 73 | 222 lbs | 6.7 | 33.50% | 10.90% | 4.50 |
| C.J. Prosise | 72 | 220 lbs | 6.6 | 26.20% | 11.50% | 4.48 |
| Leonard Fournette | 72 | 240 lbs | 6.5 | 38.80% | 11.90% | 4.51 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 72 | 225 lbs | 6.3 | 37.80% | 8.90% | 4.47 |
| Latavius Murray | 74 | 223 lbs | 5.6 | 27.30% | 8.50% | 4.43 |
| David Johnson | 73 | 224 lbs | 5.4 | 40.80% | 14.40% | 4.50 |
| Javorius Allen | 72 | 221 lbs | 5.4 | 27.70% | 11.70% | 4.53 |
| Jay Ajayi | 72 | 221 lbs | 5.3 | 41.30% | 12.40% | 4.57 |
| Le’Veon Bell | 73 | 230 lbs | 4.7 | 45.10% | 10.80% | 4.60 |
Joe Mixon Comps via PlayerProfiler’s Data Analysis Tool
Under new offensive coordinator Bill Lazor, Mixon saw an increase in usage in Week 3 as he led the Bengals backfield with 21 total touches — equal to his combined touches from Weeks 1-2. Totaling 18 carries for 62 yards and three receptions for 39 yards, Mixon was the clear option at running back for the Bengals, supplanting Jeremy Hill and pushing Giovani Bernard to a reserve role.
The Bengals are a -3.0 road favorite at Cleveland and will likely find themselves in a positive game script to lean on the run. Mixon is primed for 20-plus touches, making him a strong upside play in all formats.
Tyler Lockett, Seahawks WR: $5,000 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel
Overlooked in discussions on third-year breakout wide receivers, Tyler Lockett deserves to be in the conversation. Through the first three weeks, Lockett has the second highest snap share of Seahawks receivers at 78.1 percent, just ahead of Paul Richardson’s 74.5 percent. After seeing a career-high nine targets in Week 2, he took a step back in Week 3, catching two of his three targets for 30 yards while logging a 91.5 percent snap share. That’s not the performance we hoped for in a game in which quarterback Russell Wilson threw for a career high 373 yards. As a result, Lockett remains under the radar heading into an attractive matchup against a Colts defense allowing the fourth-most passing yards per game (284) this season.
Lockett has a fantastic blend of speed and agility, evidenced by a 4.40-second (93rd percentile) forty-yard dash and 10.96 (77th percentile) agility score. An uber-producer at Kansas State, Lockett logged back-to-back 11-touchdown seasons as a junior and senior, cresting both the 100-reception (106) and 1,500-yard (1,515) thresholds and achieving a 44.2 percent (88th percentile) dominator rating in his final year. Already a Pro-Bowl return man, Lockett provides the Seahawks with versatility, profiling as a slot/flanker receiver with field-stretching speed.
The Seahawks are -13.0 favorites with an implied total of 27.25 points at home Sunday night against the Colts. Although it seems as if the game script will favor the run game, the team’s Jekyll-and-Hyde offense has been tough to pinpoint thus far. An annual issue for the Seahawks has been their offensive line, which has a PlayerProfiler Run Block Efficiency Grade of 29.1 (28th), and the Colts have held opponents to just 3.3 yards per carry (25th). Seattle will likely lean on quarterback Russell Wilson, who’s 115 pass attempts and 22 red-zone pass attempts are fifth and second in the league.
Doug Baldwin is nursing a groin injury, the severity of which is not yet known. If he were to miss time, Lockett (second on the Seahawks in slot rate) could step into his role in the offense and garner the largest target share, giving him significant appeal as a contrarian option in a fantastic matchup.
Good luck this week, and be sure to use our Tools to research potential breakout players.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NFL news feed:
