Monkey Knife Fight takes a new spin on daily fantasy, combining player props and parlays. With exciting contest structures, put your football knowledge to the test and pit player performances against one another.
Check out a few picks to consider in this exciting format for Week 4 with the help of our NFL Player Props Tool.
More or Less 2/3
Tom Brady Passing Yards (315.5) vs. Mac Jones Passing Yards (265.5) vs. Chris Godwin Receptions (5.5)
I’m opting to go with the Pick 2/3 structure in the More or Less contests, giving flexibility if a player does not have a stellar outing.
This week, a talking point in the industry has been Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady’s return to Gillette Stadium to face the New England Patriots. The future hall-of-famer has been one of the more consistent quarterbacks this season, averaging 362 passing yards and 47 attempts per game, with a 68% completion rate. Brady benefits from a plethora of weapons in the receiving corps, distributing the ball to Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski. Dating back to last season, Brady has reached the 316 passing yards mark nine times. With the Buccaneers calling the third-most passing plays in the league, equating to 64% of their called plays (according to the RotoViz Pace Tool), Brady should reach the 316-yard threshold purely on volume along, even facing a Patriots defense ranked fourth in passing DVOA.
We’re projecting Brady to throw for 321.5 yards in his return, exceeding the over.
Rookie quarterback Mac Jones takes over under-center duties this season for the Patriots, an offense that has called an extremely balanced 51%/49% pass-to-run split, averaging 31 passing plays per game, the third least in the league. Jones has averaged 245 passing yards per game in three starts this year, completing 67% of his passes. Jones also will be without running back James White because of a hip injury, an integral part of the Patriots passing game, with 14 targets through three weeks.
Tampa Bay ranks 17th in defensive DVOA, which may look appealing, but inexperience in a big-game environment and lack of viable weapons may limit Jones’s performance. Currently, he is projected to pass for 253.5 yards, trending toward the under.
If Tom Brady continues to exceed expectations as one of the more efficient passers in the league, Chris Godwin looks to be in for a big day. Godwin, who leads the distributed Buccaneers receiving corps with 19% of the target share, has six or more passes in seven games. With tight end Rob Gronkowski now out with a rib injury in Sunday’s Week 4 matchup, Godwin can expect to see additional targets his way, benefitting from a strong 0.68 correlation to Brady.
Our Player Props Tool project Godwin for 6.1 receptions, exceeding the 5.5 reception mark.
The Pick: Tom Brady More 315.5 passing yards, Mac Jones Less 265.5 passing yards, Chris Godwin More 5.5 Receptions
More Or Less 2/2
Travis Kelce Receiving Yards (95.5) vs. Miles Sanders Rushing Yards (63.5)
One of the highest totals on the slate at 54.5-points, the Chiefs and Eagles look to have shootout potential in what looks to be a closer game with a 6.5-point tilt toward the Chiefs.
Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce is one of the more dominant receivers in the league and a favorite weapon for quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Since last year, Kelce has averaged 97 receiving yards per game, reaching the 96-receiving yard mark in nine games. He shares the lead in target share this year, seeing 24% of the Chiefs’ looks with counterpart Tyreek Hill. Kelce also benefits from the pass-heavy tendencies of the Chiefs, who average 40 passing plays per game, the fifth-most in the league. However, the Week 4 matchup looks to be a more challenging environment for Kelce, facing an Eagles defense ranked 14th in DVOA.
We’re currently projecting Kelce to have 81.2 receiving yards this week, well below the 95.5-receiving yard threshold.
Philadelphia Eagles running back Miles Sanders appears to have a prime matchup against the Chiefs, who are last in run DVOA in the league. Leading the Eagles backfield with 41% of the share in carries, Sanders should have opportunities to run, reaching the 64-rushing yard mark in nine games. His production, however, may be limited with the rushing abilities of quarterback Jalen Hurts, who is second on the Eagles with a 36% share of carries. If the Eagles also happen to be behind late in the game, expect the Philadelphia to depend on their 62%/38% pass-to-run play calling script to keep the game close.
Sanders is projected to rush for 57 yards in the Week 4 matchup, trending toward the under.
The Pick: Travis Kelce Less 95.5 receiving yards, Miles Sanders Less 63.5 rushing yards
More Or Less 2/2
Kirk Cousins Passing Yards (280.5) vs. Baker Mayfield Passing Yards (255.5)
The Week 4 matchup between the Minnesota Vikings and Cleveland Browns looks to fly under the radar, currently with a 51.5 total. The Viking and Browns both rank toward the bottom in the league in pass attempts, averaging 35 and 32 passing plays, respectively.
Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins has averaged 306 passing yards per game through three weeks this season. However, he will face a tough Browns defense that ranks 10th in DVOA. Dating back to last year, Cousins has reached the 281-yard passing mark in nine games. Even with a full complement of options in the receiving corps, including Adam Thielen, Justin Jefferson and KJ Osbourne, the tough matchup may trend Cousins toward the under.
Our Player Props tool projects Cousins to throw for 269.5 yards, well below the 280.5-yard mark.
For the Browns, Baker Mayfield looks to have a prime matchup against the 25th DVOA-ranked Minnesota Vikings, who allowed quarterback Russell Wilson to throw for 298 yards and one touchdown as part of a 30-17 win. Since last season, Mayfield has reached the 256-passing yard threshold seven times. With Jarvis Landry out for the foreseeable future, the Browns should rely on Odell Beckham Jr. to see the bulk of the carries, currently leading the Cleveland receiving corps with a 30% target share. As two-point favorites, the Browns may lean on running backs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt to eat up the clock, limiting the potential for both quarterbacks to reach their passing yard mark.
We’re projecting Mayfield to throw for 251.5 yards, a close call, but trending toward the under.
The Pick: Kirk Cousins Less Passing Yards (280.5) vs. Baker Mayfield Less Passing Yards (255.5)
