The Market Share Report presents team-specific usage splits in easy-to-analyze visual form. For more information, see the first piece in the series.
For weekly analysis using this data, check out our NFL homepage. I’ll tweet out some findings as well, if that’s your thing. This data is best used in conjunction with our suite of Tools, especially our Models. The pie charts represent the last four weeks of data, while the line graphs show each individual week.
Without further ado, here are the graphs. They’re interactive, so hover over anything for more data. Good luck in Week 11!
A guy can’t touch the ball if he’s not on the field. Snap data is more important than a lot of people think. If 80 percent of success is showing up, then we want guys who actually show up on the field.
- As I mentioned in last week’s piece, snap percentage is important, but so is raw snap total. A pair of Patriots — Brandin Cooks and Rob Gronkowski — lead all players with 286 and 281 snaps, respectively, over their last four games. When you’re the No. 1 team in offensive and pass DVOA, and you’re one of the fastest teams in the league in terms of pace of play and total offensive snaps — that’s a recipe for fantasy goodness.
- Corey Davis is going to break out. Soon. Not only did he get 10 targets and operate alongside Rishard Matthews in Tennessee’s two-wide sets, but he played 78 snaps last week. The Titans got things moving against the Bengals, totaling a whopping 90 offensive snaps, and they could have to do so again this week as seven-point road dogs in Pittsburgh.
Players compete for one ball on a per-play basis and there’s only so much of the pie to go around. Targets are important. Below the pie graph is a line graph showing the weekly target share over the last four weeks of the 2017 season.
- We’ve discussed the Saints quite a bit recently here at FantasyLabs. And for good reason: They’re more balanced offensively this year, and their pass defense is excellent. The running backs are rightfully getting a lot of love — Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara combined for 269 yards and four touchdowns last week — but don’t forget about the pass game. Michael Thomas is still a stud, he leads the NFL with a 34.8 percent target share over his last four games, and he could be underowned in Week 11 if people gravitate toward the run game again.
- He’s no Odell Beckham, but Sterling Shepard is the best WR option Eli Manning has right now. He got 35.1 percent of the Giants’ targets in Week 10 — the fourth-highest mark in the league. Can he keep things going this week in a tough matchup against Chiefs slot corner Steven Nelson? Or will it turn back into the Evan Engram show?
Air Yards as a metric helps us see how a receiver produces his receiving yards and how leveraged his targets are. The metric was created by RotoViz’s Josh Hermsmeyer. Check out Josh’s introduction to Air Yards at RotoViz. The charts show the market share of Air Yards.
- Things continue to point toward Michael Thomas as a contrarian pivot away from the chalkiness of the Saints RBs. Not only does he lead the league in target share over the last four games, but he also leads all players with 54.8 percent of his team’s Air Yards during that span.
- Julio Jones has been a disappointment, averaging a -3.94 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 22 percent Consistency over his last 10 games. Still, there are positive signs moving forward: He owns 46.0 percent of the Falcons’ Air Yards over the last four weeks. Touchdown regression will eventually come, and it’s possible they rely on the passing game a bit more with Devonta Freeman likely out for Week 11. The last time Julio traveled to Seattle he put up a 7-139-1 line at just 1.1 percent DraftKings ownership.
Again, there’s only so much of the rushing pie to go around.
- Speaking of the Falcons, it’s possible Tevin Coleman doesn’t get a huge majority of the rushes with Freeman out. Last week he got 58.8 percent of the carries, while Terron Ward got 26.5 percent. Coleman is still the guy and certainly inexpensive, but just over 50 percent of the carries is much lower than typical stud running backs like Le’Veon Bell (91.5 percent over the last four weeks) and Kareem Hunt (84.1).
- Melvin Gordon is in a great spot in Week 11 against the Buffalo Bills, who just got wrecked by the Saints at home. That said, his usage has taken a troubling downturn of late: He got 80.0 and 96.2 percent of the Chargers’ carries in Weeks 5 and 6. Since then? He got 69.2 percent in Week 7, 66.7 percent in Week 8, and 57.1 percent in Week 10. Will this negative trend reverse in Week 11?
Opportunities Inside the 10-Yard Line
Touchdowns are critical for success in guaranteed prize pools. Getting opportunities inside the 10-yard line is pretty much DFS gold.
- Of the 18 players with six-plus opportunities inside the 10-yard line over the last four games, only one player — Jimmy Graham — is a non-RB. Seattle’s offense has been better recently, and they’ve been especially busy in the red zone: Both Graham and RB Thomas Rawls have seven opportunities a piece over the last four games.
- The players with the most opportunities inside the 10 over the last four games are Le’Veon Bell (11), LeSean McCoy (10), and Ezekiel Elliott (10). Zeke is suspended, and Shady just lost his starting QB in Tyrod Taylor to rookie Nathan Peterman. Does that make Bell even more of a high-priced commodity this week? Probably. Unfortunately, he’s in the Thursday night game.
Bryan Mears is an editor at FantasyLabs and host of the Daily Fantasy Flex podcast.