The Week 10 NFL Dashboard
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Chiefs at Panthers
The Panthers are three-point home favorites over the Chiefs in the game with the fourth-lowest Over/Under of the week at just 44 points. Kansas City’s implied team total of 20.5 points is tied for the fifth-lowest mark in the slate. The Panthers are implied to score 23.5 points.
Kansas City Chiefs
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Alex Smith
All signs point towards the Chiefs being led by Smith in Week 10 after he missed last week with a concussion. As always seems to be the case, Smith has a great matchup, this time facing a Panthers funnel defense ranked 23rd in Football Outsiders’ pass Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). He’s currently the third-highest rated FanDuel QB in the Levitan Model. He’s not fun to roster, but the matchup and price suggest that he’s someone worth considering at just two to four percent projected ownership in the Sunday Million.
RB – Spencer Ware
Ware has passed the league’s concussion protocol and is expected to play this weekend. He’s been one of the most efficient backs in the league this season, as his average of 6.9 yards per touch is the third best among all RB through nine weeks. Ware has posted a +4.76 Plus/Minus and averaged 17.2 DraftKings points over seven games this season. He does have a tough matchup this week against a Panthers’ defense that has held RBs to a 37.2 percent rush success rate over the past 12 months — the second-lowest mark in the league. Because of the matchup, Ware is something of a risky play in cash games, but in guaranteed prize pools he deserves consideration.
RB – Charcandrick West
West fell flat on his face last week as the lead back. To make matters worse for him — and better for us — Ware is expected to return in Week 10. West should fade back to irrelevancy sooner rather than later.
RB – Knile Davis & Bishop Sankey
No.
WR – Jeremy Maclin
Maclin came into Week 9 with a groin injury and aggravated it two snaps into the game. He didn’t practice this week and has been ruled out for Week 10.
WR – Tyreek Hill
Per our Matchups tool, ‘high variance’ offensive weapon Tyreek Hill is likely to run most of his routes against cornerback Leonard Johnson in the slot, who offers Pro Football Focus’ ninth-most advantageous matchup of the week. Hill has three touchdowns in his past five games and has shown the ability to break games wide open on a less than optimal number of targets. I can’t speak from personal experience, but Peter Jennings (CSURAM88) says that he also has great YouTube highlights, so there’s that.
With Maclin out, Hill should see an increase in his snaps.
WR – Albert Wilson
After Maclin exited Week 9 with a groin injury, Wilson (a third-year former UDFA out of Georgia State) stepped in for a 3-42-1 line on eight targets and 41 snaps. If Maclin misses Week 10, Wilson will surely be in play at $3300 DK.
WR – Chris Conley
Even with Maclin out, Conley’s unlikely to see lots of opportunities to show off his Jedi skillz.
TE – Travis Kelce
Guy is a complete savage. (See featured image.) I had Kelce in a ton of GPP lineups last week, and I wasn’t even mad at the ejection. Just impressed. Per our Trends Tool, Carolina’s pass defense has not impressed this year against starting TEs:
The Panthers currently rank 25th against TEs in pass DVOA. Kelce is an elite talent and the week’s highest-rated DK TE in our Cash Model on DK. He’s an option in all formats. With a 96 percent DK Bargain Rating, he has just a nine to 12 percent projected ownership in the Millionaire Maker.
Carolina Panthers
Writer: Tyler Buecher
QB – Cam Newton
After starting the season red-hot, Newton has cleared 20 DK points only once in the past six games. Unfortunately, we might have to wait another week for a potential bounceback game. The Chiefs rank eighth in pass DVOA and have allowed just one quarterback to eclipse 300-plus passing yards. Newton has historically struggled when playing against top-ten pass defenses over the course of his career:
Producing almost seven fewer points against top-end pass defenses, Newton might have a ceiling not worth chasing this week. In our Player Models, Newton has just the eighth-highest ceiling (32.3 points), and the Chiefs are holding QBs to a -0.6 Plus/Minus.
RB – Jonathan Stewart
Stewart has seen quality volume after returning from injury, averaging 20 touches per game over his last three contests. The Panthers rank top-10 in red zone trips (ninth), trips inside the opponent’s 10-yard line (10th), and trips inside the opponent’s five-yard line (fourth). Stewart has dominated touches inside the 10, per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report:
Kansas City ranks in the middle of the pack in most of these categories and should provide Stewart with some opportunities to score. The Chiefs rank 18th in run DVOA and have allowed seven TDs to RBs on the season. Stewart has a +3.63 Projected Plus/Minus and makes for an intriguing tournament option with a low FantasyLabs projected ownership of just two to four percent.
RB – Fozzy Whittaker & Mike Tolbert
Whittaker and Tolbert have each had seven total touches over the Panthers’ last three games. Neither has much DFS value with a healthy J-Stew on the field.
WR – Kelvin Benjamin
Per our Matchups tool, Benjamin is likely to run most of his routes against CB Phillip Gaines this week. Gaines is allowing 0.30 fantasy points per route defended and ranks as PFF’s 111th cornerback (out of 117 qualifying CBs). Outside of his strange one-target game, Benjamin has 70 yards and/or a TD in every single game this season. Kansas City has allowed 10 receiving TDs to WRs this season. Benjamin has a 96 percent FD Bargain Rating and is in consideration for both cash games and GPPs.
WR – Ted Ginn Jr.
Ginn has five receptions in each of the last three games, averaging seven targets per game. Unfortunately, he hasn’t cleared 55 receiving yards during that span, and he has yet to catch a TD this season. While Ginn’s uptick in volume is a positive development, this week he’ll unfortunately draw the coverage of Marcus Peters, who’s a top-35 CB in PFF’s rankings. If Ginn is able to elude Peters, he always has the potential for a big play. He ranks second among all DK WRs in Upside.
WR – Philly Brown
Brown’s been priced back to the minimum on DK. He has just one top-24 WR finish this season.
WR – Devin Funchess
Funchess has the fewest snaps among Carolina’s WRs since the bye, with 8.6 FD points combined over the last two games.
TE – Greg Olsen
The Chiefs have allowed the third-fewest receptions and fifth-fewest DK points to opposing TEs this season. Kansas City has yet to allow a TE to score double-digit fantasy points, giving up just one TD this season. Given Olsen’s hefty price tag ($5,900 DK), it may just be wiser to pay up for Rob Gronkowski.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
