NFL Week 10 Matchup: Bengals at Giants
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Bengals at Giants
The Bengals travel to MetLife Stadium as 2.5-point road dogs. The Giants are the current favorites in a game that is projected for an over/under of 47 points with sneaky shootout appeal. The Bengals are implied for 22.25 points; the Giants, 24.75 points.
Cincinnati Bengals
Writer: John Proctor
QB – Andy Dalton
Dalton continues to have the highest completion percentage of his career at 67.1 percent. He also holds his second-highest career adjusted yards per attempt at 8.3, even though he threw for only three touchdowns over the first four weeks. Dalton now has six passing TD and a rushing TD over his last four games. He has accounted for four offensive touchdowns and 592 pasing yards in the two weeks since tight end Tyler Eifert’s return.
This week Dalton faces off against a Giants passing defense that ranks 10th against the pass per Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). He struggled in Week 8 against the Redskins 13th-ranked unit, but this week Dalton should be forced to keep pace with the Giants offense that is projected to score 24 points. Dalton is only $5,800 on DraftKings with an 83 percent Bargain Rating in a potentially high-scoring game.
RB – Giovani Bernard
Since Eifert has returned, Gio has seen only three targets. However, he has 28 carries in that span, splitting the rushing load almost evenly with Jeremy Hill. It continues to be difficult to predict when Bernard is going to be heavily involved, as his volume fluctuates heavily with game flow. In our Player Models, Gio projects for a ceiling of only 16 DK points with a 17 percent Bargain Rating.
RB – Jeremy Hill
After coming in and out of the game in Week 9, Hill handled 20 carries in Week 10. However, he struggled, averaging only 3.8 yards per carry. Hill has been very up and down this season, especially as he has battled an upper body injury. Coming out of the bye, Hill should be healthier for this week’s matchup.
However, the Giants are holding runners to the sixth-fewest rushing yards per attempt, although they have allowed seven TDs on the season. Hill remains a weekly threat for goal-line TDs, but he has a very volatile weekly touch projection. He has a ceiling projection of only 12.7 FanDuel points and only one Pro Trend on the week.
WR – A.J. Green
After a rollercoaster start to the NFL season, Green has had at least 88 yards in three straight games, with 378 yards in that span. He also has a robust 36 targets over those three weeks. Green continues to be one of the most targeted receivers in the league.
Green has a tough matchup on paper against the Giants passing defense. Per our Matchups tool, Green is expected to run most of his routes against Eli Apple, who grades out as Pro Football Focus’ 99th cornerback. His teammates Janoris Jenkins and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie both grade out as top-10 PFF CBs. If the Giants deploy Jenkins and DRC on the outside with Leon Hall in the slot, Green could get a tough draw. If, though, Apple starts at left CB, fire up Green. Even in what looks to be a tough matchup, Green projects for the fifth-highest FD ceiling in our Player Models.
WR – Brandon LaFell
LaFell has only 12 targets over his last three games, taking a backseat to Eifert. Green is going to continue to dominate the target market share in this offense, with Eifert as the second option. LaFell should continue to see red-zone usage, giving him touchdown upside, but he’s not getting enough volume to be a consistent option.
WR – Tyler Boyd
Boyd out-targeted LaFell 7-2 in their Week 8 game before the bye. However, he has only 20 targets over his last four games and should be considered the third option at best. With Eifert back, Boyd and LaFell may have to fight over the scraps.
TE – Tyler Eifert
Eifert was given a full complement of snaps in Week 8, and he totally delivered. He caught nine of 12 targets for 102 yards and a touchdown. This week he gets to face off against a Giants defense that has struggled against TEs, ranking 19th in pass DVOA against the position. Eifert is one of the premier red-zone threats in the NFL and a high-upside option as long as he continues to see volume. Eifert is much more reasonably priced on FD, where he boasts a 95 percent Bargain Rating and seven Pro Trends.
New York Giants
Writer: Kelly McCann
QB – Eli Manning
The Bengals have allowed the ninth-most TD passes (16) and seventh-most DK points per game to quarterbacks this season. Playing Eli is never easy on the intestines, but he does have a projected ceiling of 32.2 DK points. Alternating big performances with sight-destroying outings, Manning is almost the definition of a boom-or-bust GPP play. If you are playing a slate with Monday games, Manning could push your team over the top — or off the cliff.
RB – Rashad Jennings
Jennings is rapidly approaching a full-blown timeshare with Paul Perkins. Jennings played 37 snaps last week compared to Perkins’ 22, but each player had 11 carries in the game. Per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report, Jennings at least has a 43.42 percent share of Giants’ carries over the past four weeks and leads New York with five touches inside the 10-yard line during that time. He has an 82 percent Bargain Rating on DK and is currently the No. 1 DK RB in the Bales Model. He’s a GPP-only play if you dare.
RB – Paul Perkins
Perkins’ carries have increased every week for the past three weeks. Last game, he had a season-high 14 opportunities (carries plus targets). If you’re into playing Giants RBs, Perkins has a 95 percent Bargain Rating on FD, is priced at the bare minimum, and has a top-10 rating in the CSURAM88 Model. Per our Trends tool, RBs with comparable salaries and projected ceilings have previously produced a +4.76 FD Plus/Minus.
WR – Odell Beckham
Odell’s 26.62 percent target share over the last four games is the ninth-highest percentage in the NFL. He has averaged 10.25 targets and 22.82 DK points per game during that time. The Bengals have a couple of terrible cornerbacks: Dre Kirkpatrick‘s 46.2 PFF grade ranks him 102nd at the position, and Adam Jones‘ 48.9 PFF grade ranks him 98th. Per our Matchups tool, Beckham will get plenty of shots at Jones and should be able to capitalize.
Beckham currently has the second-highest projected ceiling among wide receivers and is an elite play in all formats. He’s also historically played pretty well on Monday nights.
WR – Sterling Shepard
Shepard has maintained a stranglehold on the No. 2 WR job all season and is averaging a chunky seven targets per game over the past four weeks. Shepard is priced at just $4,500 DK and has a projected Plus/Minus of +3.2 this week. He is currently a top-five rated DK WR in our Cash Game Model.
WR – Victor Cruz
Cruz (ankle) missed every practice this week and is officially questionable to play on Monday. The odds of him playing aren’t good. Even if he does play, he’s likely to be very limited.
WR – Roger Lewis
Lewis saw 37 snaps last week after Cruz exited the game with an ankle injury and could be in line for some more playing time. Lewis was targeted just twice but scored on a 30-yard touchdown reception. He’s nothing more than a GPP dart to use in potential Giants stacks.
TE – Will Tye
After being trapped in an unproductive committee with Larry Donnell all season, Tye was on the field for 46 snaps last week while Donnell got zero snaps. Tye was targeted seven times in his first game as a full-time player this season. The Bengals have allowed the third-most yards (618), fifth-most touchdowns (5), and third-most fantasy points per game (11.5) to tight ends. Tye is currently a top-two rated TE in five of our six Pro Models for DK, where he is priced at just $2,500. If you’re looking to go cheap on a Monday night, he could be your guy.
News Updates
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