The Market Share Report presents team-specific usage splits in easy-to-analyze visual form. For more information, see the first piece in the series.
For weekly analysis using this data, check out our NFL homepage. I’ll tweet out some findings as well, if that’s your thing. This data is best used in conjunction with our suite of Tools, especially our Models. The pie charts represent the last four weeks of data, while the line graphs show each individual week.
Without further ado, here are the graphs. They’re interactive, so hover over anything for more data. Good luck in Week 10!
A guy can’t touch the ball if he’s not on the field. Snap data is more important than a lot of people think. If 80 percent of success is showing up, then we want guys who actually show up on the field.
- Snap percentage and fantasy points per snap are metrics that get a lot of attention, but don’t overlook raw snap totals. For example, Brandin Cooks (290) and Chris Hogan (271) of the New England Patriots rank in the top-six in total snaps over the last four games. Many of the top fantasy options, and especially pass-catchers, play a high percentage of snaps; looking at these with pace in mind can provide more of an edge.
- Le’Veon Bell leads all RBs with 252 total offensive snaps over his last four games. The next closest RBs are Ezekiel Elliott with 234 and LeSean McCoy (216). Bell is still in a class of his own when it comes to time on the field, and he’s proven he can put up massive performances both in the run and pass game.
Players compete for one ball on a per-play basis and there’s only so much of the pie to go around. Targets are important. Below the pie graph is a line graph showing the weekly target share over the last four weeks of the 2017 season.
- There are only five WRs with current target shares above 30 percent: Antonio Brown (36.6%), DeAndre Hopkins (32.6%), Alshon Jeffery (30.7%), Adam Thielen (30.5%), and Dez Bryant (30.2%). Of these, Alshon is on a bye in Week 10, while Thielen is the cheapest at $6,700.
- Tight ends typically don’t get the same public recognition their WR counterparts do, but that doesn’t mean they can’t be target monsters. Jack Doyle and Evan Engram stand out in this regard, as they lead their teams with 29.1 and 25.2 percent target shares, respectively, over their past four games.
Air Yards as a metric helps us see how a receiver produces his receiving yards and how leveraged his targets are. The metric was created by RotoViz’s Josh Hermsmeyer. Check out Josh’s introduction to Air Yards at RotoViz. The charts show the market share of Air Yards.
- The leader in market share of Air Yards over each team’s last four games might surprise you: Jacksonville’s Marqise Lee. He accounted for a whopping 53 percent of the Jags’ Air Yards in Week 9, and he’s now gone for double-digit DraftKings points in three straight games. Further, he has 28 targets over that time frame. You might think that’d warrant a price hike, but, nope, he’s still just $4,100 on DraftKings, where he comes with a 94 percent Bargain Rating.
- Detroit’s Marvin Jones is third in market share of Air Yards over the last four games, and this week the Lions get a Cleveland Browns team that is a strong funnel toward the pass game, as they rank first in rush DVOA but 28th in pass DVOA. Golden Tate will likely get all of the love this week, but Jones has gotten 11, 11, and 14 targets over the last three games and should receive high-value opportunities again this week.
Again, there’s only so much of the rushing pie to go around.
- Among the top-five backs in rushing share over the past four games, three are priced at $8,300 or higher on DraftKings. One (Kareem Hunt) is on bye but would certainly be above that as well. The oddball of the group is Chicago RB Jordan Howard, who sits fifth with a 79.2 percent market share. He’s priced at only $6,100 on DraftKings in Week 10 and is just a couple weeks removed from carrying the ball 36 times in a win versus the Ravens. He could have positive game script again at home against a Brett Hundley-led Packers squad.
- After seeing less carries in Week 8 than Tevin Coleman, Devonta Freeman got 64.7 percent of them in Week 9. He’s certainly been a disappointment this year, averaging a -2.57 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 25 percent Consistency, but he does have a high ceiling, especially considering this Atlanta-Dallas game has the highest Vegas total of the slate at 50.5 currently. For whatever it’s worth, there seems to be some sharp money on the Falcons early in the week: They haven’t budged the line despite the public hammering the Cowboys with 81 percent of the tickets.
Opportunities Inside the 10-Yard Line
Touchdowns are critical for success in guaranteed prize pools. Getting opportunities inside the 10-yard line is pretty much DFS gold.
- There are four players with double-digit opportunities inside the 10 over the last four games: Elliott (12), Melvin Gordon (12), Bell (11), and McCoy (10). Gordon especially will have an interesting test in Week 10. He’s perhaps #notgood, but he’s a potential fantasy beast given his workload in LA. He gets a Jags team that is theoretically a strong run funnel defense, ranking first against the pass but 31st against the rush.
- Among the 17 players with six-plus opportunities inside the 10 over the last four games, there’s exactly one non-RB: Seattle tight end Jimmy Graham. He’s not available in the Sunday slate, but this more speaks to the massive touchdown equity running backs have on offenses this season. Playing three RBs every week on DraftKings doesn’t seem like a bad strategy.
Bryan Mears is an editor at FantasyLabs and host of the Daily Fantasy Flex podcast.