NFL Player Props: Trevor Lawrence, Christian Kirk Picks for Jaguars-Jets on Thursday Night Football

With just three games left, every game is critical in the AFC playoff race. The Jaguars have an outside shot at a Wild Card spot but are right in the thick of it for the division crown with Tennessee. The Jets are right in the pack of teams fighting for a Wild Card spot and can’t really afford to drop a game.

This game pits the top two quarterbacks taken in the 2021 NFL Draft, with Trevor Lawrence starting to find his stride in year two and Zach Wilson still trying to learn the ropes. It will be an exciting, playoff-like atmosphere in the Meadowlands tonight, so let’s find some props to sweat.

Right on time, Cam Akers had his best game of the season on Monday night, while Christian Watson didn’t turn around to catch a ball and missed his prop by two yards. An 0-2 night brings us to 32-31 in the year, so hopefully, we can get back in the win column.

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Jaguars-Jets NFL Player Prop Picks

Trevor Lawrence Over 185.5 Passing Yards

Thrive is giving us a gift with this one, as Trevor Lawrence’s passing yardage prop is simply too low. Lawrence has exceeded this number in nine of fourteen games of the year, with most of his misses coming within 10-20 yards.

The matchup is definitely not easy, as the Jets ranked sixth in Football Outsiders Pass Defense DVOA. The offensive line is also battered for Jacksonville, as left tackle Cam Robinson is now out for the season, and right guard Brandon Scherff and right tackle Jawaan Taylor have been limited in practice. Quinnen Williams also has a solid chance at returning, which would make matters worse for Lawrence.

However, the Jaguars are the sixth-ranked passing offense per DVOA, and Lawrence is riding high off two stellar performances. He’s put up a combined 686 yards and seven passing touchdowns in the past two weeks against solid defenses in Tennessee and Dallas. The matchup is difficult tonight, but we’re expecting Lawrence to succeed.

Our Prop Tool has this number at 225.5, showing just how much value there is in it. Most Sportsbooks have this number around 211.5, where we still like the over.

In a regulated betting state? Check out this prop on FanDuel.

Trevor Lawrence Over 209.5 Passing Yards

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Christian Kirk Over 48.5 Receiving Yards

Christian Kirk has had an excellent season for Jacksonville, approaching 1000 receiving yards with seven touchdowns. He’s also exceeded this prop number in nine of fourteen games this year, which is nice to see.

The matchup appears to be difficult, as the Jets are the sixth-ranked pass defense per DVOA. The Jets have had stellar corner play on the perimeter in Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed. However, Kirk runs 68% of his routes from the slot, so he should avoid those two corners. 49.3% of wide receiver receptions against the Jets have come from the slot, which is the highest rate in the league.

Amon-Ra St. Brown just beat up this secondary, catching seven of ten targets for 76 yards. Kirk isn’t quite as talented as St. Brown, but he is a solid slot receiver.

Our Prop Tool shows a lot of value here, with Kirk projected at 54.5 receiving yards.