With four teams on a bye and an early London game, we have our smallest slate of the season this Sunday with 10 games in the main window on DraftKings for Week 5
Even with a slightly smaller pool of players, there are still plenty of places to go shopping for some value. Just two of the 10 games on the main slate are divisional matchups. The two highest over/unders on this slate belong to two games in the lat window as the Vikings host the Chiefs in the game with the highest total, and the Eagles try to stay undefeated as they fly west to face the Rams. With 20 teams to pick from, there are already some names jumping out of our models as top values to consider for your Week 5 NFL DFS squad.
Let’s take a look at a few players who stand out for Week 5, using the early projections in our NFL Player Models. Of course, these models update frequently.
Things will likely change between now and Sunday, but it’s still good to have a plan of attack.
If there’s news between now and lock — and there will be — the models will update to reflect that.
As always, they’re powered by Sean Koerner — the most accurate fantasy ranker in the industry from 2019-2021.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Values
Matthew Stafford ($5,600) Los Angeles Rams (+4.5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (50 total)
Matthew Stafford and the Rams raced out to a big lead in Indy but ultimately needed overtime before walking off winners against the Colts. Stafford’s only passing touchdown came in overtime, and he finished with over 300 yards to total 20 DraftKings points for the first time this season.
This week Stafford has the highest Pts/Sal of all quarterbacks on Sunday’s slate using FantasyLabs projections and the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position.
The 50-point total for this game is the second-highest of all the contests on Sunday’s slate, and the Rams have the seventh-highest Implied Point Total.
Stafford has exceeded salary-based expectations in two of his four games, even though he doesn’t have a game with multiple passing touchdowns yet. He has surpassed 300 yards passing in three of his four games while averaging a healthy 307.3 yards and 17.5 DraftKings points per game.
Stafford did pick up a hip contusion in the win on Sunday, and Coach Sean McVay said the team will be careful with him during the week. It’s a situation to keep an eye on, but it doesn’t look like it will impact his availability for Sunday. Stafford could also be getting a huge boost on Sunday if Cooper Kupp is able to return to the field. Kupp has been on IR with a hamstring injury but is expected to practice this week. If Stafford is healthy and Kupp returns, it gives the Rams’ passing attack even more options to incorporate.
The Eagles have been the third-best matchup for QBs this season, and they gave up 290 yards and a touchdown last week to Sam Howell of the Commanders. Kirk Cousins and Mac Jones combined to pile up seven touchdowns and 680 yards in their two games against Philly’s defense, so the opportunity for success is definitely there for Stafford.
Stafford’s yardage totals have been strong enough to make him elite, and if the passing touchdowns start to come as well, he’ll be a great value play for as long as he’s under $6K. Kupp’s return would be a great bonus, but Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell have both emerged to give Stafford great options to target in McVay’s creative scheme.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Values
DeAndre Hopkins ($5,700) Tennessee Titans (+1) at Indianapolis Colts (42.5 total)
Using THE BLITZ projections, Hopkins stands out with the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all wide receivers this week, along with the highest Pts/Sal.
Hopkins and the Titans have had an uneven start to the season, winning two tough home games and dropping two games on the road to the Saints and Browns. The best game of the season for Hopkins came in his Titans’ debut back in Week 1. He caught seven passes for 65 yards, but he also tweaked an ankle that bothered him in the next few games.
In Week 2 through Week 4, he still produced 11 catches for 151 yards in his three games since then, bringing his total for the season to 18 catches for 216 scoreless yards. An impressive 12 of his 18 receptions have gone for first downs, and he has been open more often than Ryan Tannehill has been able to find him. He also has five red zone targets, although he’s still in search of his first Titans touchdown. The looks and the opportunities could mean that growth is coming, and a big game is on the horizon if he can put the ankle injury fully behind him.
Hopkins is in a good matchup against the Colts, who have been in the top 10 in most DraftKings points allowed to opposing wide receivers. In their four games this season, they’ve given up an average of 152.75 yards per game and a total of three touchdowns to opposing receivers. Hopkins has a long history of tormenting the Colts from his time with the Texans, and he hopes to continue that trend with his new team this week.
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NFL DFS Running Back Values
Alvin Kamara ($6,300) New Orleans Saints (+9) at New England Patriots (45 total)
In the FantasyLabs projections, Kamara has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus and the second-highest Pts/Sal. Kamara also ranks second in both of those categories using THE BLITZ projections.
Kamara played 100% of the Saints snaps in his return from suspension last week and didn’t show any signs of rust. He ran for 51 yards on his 11 carries, but where he really went off was with his 13 catches for 33 yards. His yardage totals were disappointing, and he didn’t get into the end zone, but on the plus side, he has a very high floor and ceiling if he stays so involved.
With such high usage, Kamara could be set up for a monster season and a big game this week against New England. The Patriots have given up at least five catches to opposing running backs in each of their first four games this year and have surrendered four touchdowns to opposing running backs as well.
NFL DFS Tight End Values
Zach Ertz ($3,500) Arizons Cardinals (+3) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (45 total)
Using THE BLITZ projections, Zach Ertz has the highest Projected Plus/Minus and the highest Pts/Sal of all the tight ends on Sunday’s main slate. He checks in second in both categories using the Fantasy Labs projections behind only Kyle Pitts, who is a value with breakout potential.
Ertz has already been very involved for the Cardinals so far this season, and he should continue to outproduce his salary this week against the Bengals. Ertz has piled up 30 targets in four games, which ties him with T.J. Hockenson for the most of any tight end in the NFL. Ertz has converted 20 of those targets to catches and totaled 136 receiving yards.
In his four games, Ertz has exceeded salary-based expectations four times with an average Plus/Minus of 0.68 DraftKings points. He hasn’t found the end zone yet but has six red zone targets. While he doesn’t work deep down the field and pile up huge yardage totals, Ertz is getting enough volume and continues to show a strong connection with Josh Dobbs. He bounced back from his one down-game with a 10-target performance last week against the 49ers.
So far this season, the Bengals have allowed three touchdowns in four games to opposing tight ends who have posted an average of 5.25 catches for 55 yards. Only the Jets have been a more favorable matchup for opposing tight ends in the early going this season, making Ertz a great value play this week.